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Author: [Tennis] Topic: 2012 ATP Casablanca (c); Houston (gc); WTA Barca (c); Copenhagen (i)
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#1
Posted: 4/10/2012 12:56:43 AM
(568-635 +93.65u) Overall 2012
(4-3 +2.2u) Week

Pending futures from Previous thread:
1u
Barthel to Win Copenhagen +1200
Vinci to Win Barcelona +1200
Ivo to Win Houston +2510
GGL to Win Casablanca +2750

Tues Card:

3u
Bogo/Lipsky Over Marx/Zovko -175, -175b, -175r
Schiavone + Haase -150
2u
Barthel 2-0 -285
Barthel -6.5 -120
Jaziri +145
Cornet 2-0 + Mathieu 2-0 + Cipolla 2-0 -140
1u
Cippola/Idmbarek Under 18.5 -125

- Doubles has been terrible all season but I like this match up and I like the value given the ATp experience of one side over the other... bogo is not a great doubles player but I atleast think he is decent...
- You think Schiavone would get better odds on her favorite surface so I dont know if this play is abig mistake or not... If you believe in trap lines then Govorstova is probably a play for you...  Haase is solid on clay and I think he can win his match ithout too much difficulty but with Haase you can never be sure.
- With the way barthel is playing I think she steam rolls deep into this event I have no problem laying juice with her in this situation, on this quicker surface
-  Jaziri has been doing some good things on the challenger side, lets see if he can cash on the ATP level
- I have never hit a 2-0 parlay... these are very time consuming to get in and it is embarrassing/frustrating that I lose them tie after tie
- Cipolla shoud in this one easy


GL ALL
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#2
Posted: 4/10/2012 1:22:58 AM
I like those writeups ADC!  Schiavone is a hard player to figure out.  I think its a little early in the year for her, which may be why those odds are where they're at.  But I look to back her a lot this year.

GL2U!

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#3
Posted: 4/10/2012 11:46:04 AM
unbeleivable 2nd Set from cipolla.. in the first he hit about 10-15 backhand winner and then in the 2nd hit only slice backhands... Idmabarek consistently hit balls 2-3 inches out and was not getting them called, i think the mentality is if its close it in on the hometown boy... Sometimes stuff doesnt make sense at all... Unfortunately I often bet on those matches...

ADDED:

4u
Haase 2-0 -155
Arvidsson -5.5 -125



thats it for today...

might make a play on Russel-Gimeno Traver over because its the late match and I think its on Tennis channel... but wont if I am not home by then GL ALL


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#4
Posted: 4/10/2012 12:01:52 PM
and of course Cipolla goes back to exactly what he did in the first set to win it clean... In my head this is a fixed match because there is no way a player would drop his level for presumably no reason and go to different gameplan after winning the first set 6-1... I dont know what is accomplished by a fix in this scenario but it reeks of something... whatever, those folks in Morocco got a show... and I got some nausea
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#5
Posted: 4/10/2012 5:53:13 PM
horror show day, some inexpicable things going on in casablanca and it will be wise for me to stay away from tha tourney....


5u
Russel/Gimeno-Traver Over 21.5, 22 + Texas RL (MLB) + Ariz/SD Under 6.5 (MLB) +550, +630

gl all
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#6
Posted: 4/11/2012 12:56:06 AM
terrible day yesterday... but looks like I was only 1 rangers run away from profit... just plod along and try to get back to even for the week...  Will clean up after tomorrow... no late games I like my final play will likely be on Berlocq again

3u
Barthel 2-0 -280
Barthel + Berlocq + Haase/Rojer + Elgin/Istomin + Barrios/Brianti +120
Cornet 2-0 +100
2u
Babos +225
Bojana +150
Butorac/Soares -200r
Begu/Dominguez-Lino -300b, -300r*
1u
Barthel -6.5 +100
Martic -180

*No line on this play yet... Someone is getting it in for me... this is just my guess on where the line will be... Match starts around 9am ET... will post on my way to work if I remember... 



-Usual suspects for me... the play I like the most in Berlocq... 

gl all
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#7
Posted: 4/11/2012 3:54:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

horror show day, some inexpicable things going on in casablanca and it will be wise for me to stay away from tha tourney....
 


Yes in did!!! Haase fixed his match, I have watched this one and he looked like a lazy girl, didnt fight, made stupid errors... that tells me to stay away from this player!!!! ATP shuold do something with fixing.... 
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#8
Posted: 4/11/2012 11:39:30 AM
decent today...  gonna post plays two final despite them not being in yet.

3u
Bogomolov Jr +165


If Istomin/Elgin Win 
4.4u
Berlocq -215

if consolidated with parlay play would make

8u
Berlocq -160



- I see some value in Bogo on this surface where harrison has little experience... 
- Berlocq is gonna be my big play and I am just hoping for the best.. Phau a great player but if Berlocq plays his grinding tennis he should get the win...

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#9
Posted: 4/11/2012 7:00:25 PM
berlocq dominates, should have gone spread with bogo, cornet can't win clean, barthel her dominant self, doubles was spot on today, but lost 2 futures early.

(10-13 -13.65u) last 2 days
(578-648 +80u) Overall 2012
(14-16 -11.45u) Week

only plays pending are futures

1u
Barthel to win Copenhagen +1200
GGL to win Casablanca +2750
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#10
Posted: 4/12/2012 12:30:23 AM
3u
Monaco 2-0 + Errani/Vinci -190r, -165b*
Kerber 2-0 -130
2u
Murguruza +215
Murguruza +1.5 Sets +100
Murguruza +4 +100
Jovanovski +230b, +200r
Paramentier +7.5 -160
Zeballos +4.5 -125
Dolgopolov/Jaziri +110r, +120b
Karlovic/Moser -135, -140b
Butorac/Soares -135b, -135*
1u
Russel +485

*plays not in yet... Butorac Soares is just a projection of what i should get...


- I am banking on the fact that my doubles capping is better than anything else right now...
- I like Kerber to win a slugfest type match.. she hits the ball flat and with more margin from both wings... Holding serve will be a consistent adbenture for A.K.
- I enjoy Muguruza's play... I think she has a real chance to be in the top 15 by years end with a solid clay court season... She is flat out a better clay courter than Georges and I can say that confidently... but she is 18 and as these girls prove time and time again, its one thing to be a good player on the Wta tour, its another thing to close out a match...  If she gives me a set I will be satisfied with the plays
- I may add on the Zeballos line... I jumped as soon as it opened and not to many books are offereing a spread play... I was expecting more than 4.5 games for sure... I saw it as a letdown spot for Isner after playing the best tennis of his life to beat Simon and tsonga back to back, without the aid of a bullshit court surface (Fed)...  But this court will be faster and the bounces a little more consistent... The books know what they are doing.. I am happy where I am but I am very curious where this line goes... I dont think Zeballos wins but I see tiebreakers as likely...


gl all

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#11
Posted: 4/12/2012 12:50:28 AM
1u
Govortsova to Win Barca +3300
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#12
Posted: 4/12/2012 5:00:49 PM
butorac/soares was -135b, -150

very odd they finished that match in the rain with but/soares getting steam rolled.... Why wasn't it just a retirement?... Just continues the theme of very odd things going on in casablanca.... Of all the tournaments in all the world I had to bet on this one...

largely even today... Blanco had her chance to prove her self in the third but the better player lost as this surface tests your guts more than anything else in the third....

kerber dumps the first set... Why I don't know... But she played well

4-4 -.65u today

added:
2u
zeballos +1.5 sets +145
kunitsyn +220
kunitsyn +1.5 sets -115
bogo/lipsky 120r, -125
1u
zeballos +400
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#13
Posted: 4/13/2012 1:19:24 AM
trod close to even today, but down a few units mainly due to gutless third sets from a few dogs...

ADDED and Pending:

2u
Dolgopolov/Jaziri +110r, +120b
Braccali/Fognini -125r, -105
Begu/Lino +205, +175r
Krumm/Fujiwara + Errani/Vinci +125b, +125r
Cibulkova 2-0 -190
Martic -130
1u
Cornet +1200
Chardy +170

gl all

houston to come but i want a good start first.... thinking monaco and berlocq big

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#14
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:59:16 AM
4u
andujar 2-0 -185
monaco 2-0 -125
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#15
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:59:44 AM
*andujar over ferrol
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#16
Posted: 4/13/2012 1:14:44 PM
more garbage in Casablanca... I couldnt stay away... what a joke of a second set by Andujar... and he will win the third easily... 

ADDED:
4u
Russel +250
Russel +4 -105
Sweeting +330
Sweeting +3.5 -115
2u
Velotti -200 (challenger)
Russel + Sweeting + Berlocq +2130


Berlocq is the last piece of the puzzle now...  Just hoping for the best... otherwise I will just lay off... Casablanca is the weak link this week otherwise things have been close to even...
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#17
Posted: 4/13/2012 5:27:11 PM
2u
Karllovic/Moser +125
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#18
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:33:54 PM
solid day today but...

14-21 -3.8u last two days

all futures have are gone...

ADDED:
15u
Kerber Over Jankovic -120*
3u
Suarez-Navarro/Errani Over 20.5 +100
Cornet/Paramentier +125r, +125
Cipolla to win Casablanca +700
Kerber to Win Copenhagen +525


-* Play not totally in yet.. just pieces of the bet in on Pinny and betfair... I have laid this number and I imagine it will be bet...   
I feel confident in Kerber on this surface... 

GL ALL

THAT IS IT FOR TOMORROW... Unless I decide to play monaco on the ML... 




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#19
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:46:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

solid day today but...

14-21 -3.8u last two days

all futures have are gone...

ADDED:
15u
Kerber Over Jankovic -120*
3u
Suarez-Navarro/Errani Over 20.5 +100
Cornet/Paramentier +125r, +125
Cipolla to win Casablanca +700
Kerber to Win Copenhagen +525


-* Play not totally in yet.. just pieces of the bet in on Pinny and betfair... I have laid this number and I imagine it will be bet...   
I feel confident in Kerber on this surface... 

GL ALL

THAT IS IT FOR TOMORROW... Unless I decide to play monaco on the ML... 




 

I like the Kerber and Errani plays.. i've almost completely given up on o/u on Womens..they are so hard to predict..good luck with it

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#20
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:49:33 AM
last play for the week, unless velotti eins his match today and is in the challenger final


10u
Monaco to win Houston


I am very confident in his ability to beat either Isner or Lopez in the final, but obviously I am hoping it's Lopez....


right now the line is +141 at pinny.. Can't get it all in there so a friend of mine is shopping around... I will try to post a final line soon but for now my focus is shooting a low round...

gl all

*peace*
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#21
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:49:39 AM
last play for the week, unless velotti eins his match today and is in the challenger final


10u
Monaco to win Houston


I am very confident in his ability to beat either Isner or Lopez in the final, but obviously I am hoping it's Lopez....


right now the line is +141 at pinny.. Can't get it all in there so a friend of mine is shopping around... I will try to post a final line soon but for now my focus is shooting a low round...

gl all

*peace*
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#22
Posted: 4/14/2012 12:02:32 PM
15-22 +8.2 Last three days
(593-664 +88.2u) Overall 2012
(29-38 -3.25u) Week

ALL REMAINING PLAYS:
10u
Monaco to win Houston +135
3u
Monaco 2-0 -300 (SEMI)
Cornet/Paramentier +125r, +125 (semi)
Cipolla to win Casablanca +700
Kerber to Win Copenhagen +525

- Have decided not to hedge and will just hop Kerber gets it done against the all powerful WOZ...  Maybe some live betting, but I think the chances of me being up at 7am tomorrow morning are slim...

If things work out on Sunday then I might just get away with this week afterall...

*peace
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#23
Posted: 4/14/2012 12:09:30 PM
nice unit gain on Kerber!
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#24
Posted: 4/14/2012 12:12:45 PM
monaco line -275
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#25
Posted: 4/14/2012 4:57:59 PM
12u
Lopez/Isner Over 22.5, 23, 23.5 -145, -110, +105
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