PGA Championship

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Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: PGA Championship
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/8/2012 8:44:46 PM

Still reeling a bit from a big ol' of a Sunday last week, will updated that debacle later, trying to think positive for now.

FT: 2u
McIlroy+140 o Woods
Scott-120 o Furyk
Kuchar+110 o Rose
Stanley-115 o Hanson
Noh-120 o Mannassero
Huh+105 o DeJong
Allenby-110 o Rock


Rd1: 2u
Daly+120 o Toms
Bradley+135 o Woods
Pettersson+105 o Day
Huh+105 o Davis
Noh-120 o O'Hair
Simpson+115 o Watson
Kuchar-120 o McDowell

scsiegel89 PM scsiegel89
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Posted: 8/8/2012 8:53:19 PM
loving the to put + on John Daly

Anyone who bets on John Daly is automatically a winner in my books and a winner in life
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/8/2012 8:55:41 PM

Thanks scsiegel - Daly has been playing pretty good and length should be a definite plus here.... and I'm not asking him to keep it in the fairway for 4 rounds, just one. 

 

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/9/2012 7:17:50 PM

off to a good start:

Rd1: 5-2, +6.9
Daly+120 o Toms       
Bradley+135 o Woods   
Pettersson+105 o Day  
Huh+105 o Davis       
Noh-120 o O'Hair      
Simpson+115 o Watson  
Kuchar-120 o McDowell 

DRocNJ PM DRocNJ
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Posted: 8/9/2012 7:53:28 PM
Well done, blair. Keep it going, my man.  
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:38:38 PM

Thanks DRoc!


Rd2: 2u
Dyson+125 o Choi
Kim+150 o Van Pelt
Scott-135 o Mahan
Haas+120 o Westwood
Oosthuizen-125 o Stricker
Daly+120 o Toms
Dufner-130 o Ogilvy
DJ+125 o McIlroy

Tron830 PM Tron830
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:42:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blairaj:

off to a good start:

Rd1: 5-2, +6.9
Daly+120 o Toms       
Bradley+135 o Woods   
Pettersson+105 o Day  
Huh+105 o Davis       
Noh-120 o O'Hair      
Simpson+115 o Watson  
Kuchar-120 o McDowell 


Killer round 1 good lucky on round 2
Tron830 PM Tron830
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:23:51 PM
hey blair how much do you bet on each match? im trying to narrow it down to possibly 2 i think
Jarrett75 PM Jarrett75
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:49:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tron830:

hey blair how much do you bet on each match? im trying to narrow it down to possibly 2 i think


if you look up at the top of the plays it's 2u on each one.
WeMoveLines PM WeMoveLines
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:50:04 PM

Well done blair..

What are you focusing your numbers on this week?

Let's forget about AJ's thread last week

Tron830 PM Tron830
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Posted: 8/10/2012 12:51:21 AM
Oh didn't notice the 2u
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Tron830 PM Tron830
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Posted: 8/10/2012 12:51:23 AM
Oh didn't notice the 2u
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MrBogey PM MrBogey
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Posted: 8/10/2012 1:40:04 AM
good luck this week BlairAJ
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/10/2012 8:08:21 AM

WeMove - I look at a lot of things.

1) The line itself:  is somebody overvalued because he's a golfchannel or pgatour.com favorite or just gets blindly bet up all the time?

2) Current Form:  I usually just look back the last 3-5 tournaments and count the number of times player A has been in the 60's vs. how many times player B has.

3) Major Performance:  This week, based on the type of course, I'm looking much more at the British and a little less on the US Open, and hardly none on the Masters'.

4) Head to Head:  this is one of my favorites to use and the pay site that I use gives this to me rather easily.  I will look at this both for FT and for individual rounds.

5) Attribute stats:  these are the correlations that I do.  Obviously this week I had nothing to build those correlations on, so I could only go by what I read.  I did give length considerably more attenstion this week than I normally would.

6) When we get past rd1, I also like to look at what a player has done in rd2 relative to what they've typically done in rd1.  In other words, if they went low do they tend to stay low, or conversely if they sucked, do they tend to continue to suck?

7) In rd2, I also like to look at how they finished rd1.  Did they finish on high note or on a low?  I'd rather be on the guys that finished on a high.

8) The last thing I can think of is, again on the pay site, I can find how the player does in strong wind relative to his regular scoring average.  This is just one number comparison of 5 scoring avg in wind vs 5 year overall avg, but at least it's something.

 

MrBogey PM MrBogey
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Posted: 8/10/2012 9:48:34 AM
for those of you serious about making money this is great info ^^^


one question for you blairaj, can you give a link where to find the info about how guys perform in the wind? I already pay for that golf observer site and wouldn't mind adding the head to head and wind stats
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/10/2012 10:09:44 AM

Thanks Bogey

On Tour-tips.com, if you look at the profiles >> player, it will have something like "good player in the wind", where it compares their 5 yr avg for all rds vs their 5yr avg in rounds where the wind was over some threshold (I think 10mph).  It's not much, but at least it's something

MrBogey PM MrBogey
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Posted: 8/10/2012 9:28:53 PM
 blairaj - did the guys that finished today's round +2 or better rate as good wind players?
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/10/2012 10:45:18 PM

Bogey - that will take me some to look up, I'll try to look at that in the morning.   In general though, I can tell you that looking at that 5 year avg, there was not anybody that I remember that really stood out as being siginificantly different between their 5 yr overall avg and their wind avg.  Pretty much everybody was within a 1 stroke avg between wind and strong wind.  So, I wouldn't count on any magic insight from the limited data that I can easily get.

Hole 7 was a killer for me today with both DJ and Dyson taking a snowman.  If those 2 are pars, I make some nice coin:

Rd2: 4-4, -0.1
Dyson+125 o Choi          
Kim+150 o Van Pelt         
Scott-135 o Mahan         
Haas+120 o Westwood       
Oosthuizen-125 o Stricker 
Daly+120 o Toms           

Dufner-130 o Ogilvy        
DJ+125 o McIlroy           

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/11/2012 12:49:12 AM
Rd3:2u
Stricker+100 o Watson
Els+100 o Schwartzel
Ishikawa+105 o Woodland
Chalmers+100 o Curtis
Jacobsen-125 o Jimenez
Siem-115 o F-castanzo
Adams-110 o Immelman
Poulter+120 o Scott
Pettersson-115 o Singh (2.5u)
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/11/2012 1:05:09 AM

There's way better odds out there than I got, but Carl Pettersson has had 2 weekend leads in his career - one at the Wyndam in North Carolina in 2008 and the other this year in South Carolina this year at the Heritage - he went on to win them both.

Pettersson +900  (1.5u) to win

MrE2All PM MrE2All
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:37:48 AM
blairaj--

What pay site do you use for stats? 

Can you also give an example of the correlations you are running?  Are they multi variable?

Thanks.
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/12/2012 10:14:08 AM
Rd3:5-4, +1.8
Stricker+100 o Watson         
Els+100 o Schwartzel          
Ishikawa+105 o Woodland       
Chalmers+100 o Curtis         
Jacobsen-125 o Jimenez         
Siem-115 o F-castanzo         
Adams-110 o Immelman           
Poulter+120 o Scott            
Pettersson-115 o Singh(2.5u)  
DRocNJ PM DRocNJ
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Posted: 8/12/2012 10:18:16 AM
Another profit. Well done! Can't wish u luck with Petterson, though. I need Scott. lol. Good luck with your 4th rd plays. 
GunsUp PM GunsUp
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Posted: 8/12/2012 10:24:01 AM
Still can['t believe the way Immelman is playing.  Nice to for him but not nice for ME $$$
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 8/12/2012 11:44:32 AM

Rd4: 2u
Oosthuizen-115 o Furyk
Baddeley-120 o Chalmers
Dufner-120 o Mickelson
Stricker-115 o McDowell
Pettersson-125 o Immelman

Let's go Pettersson

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