Thanks scsiegel - Daly has been playing pretty good and length should be a definite plus here.... and I'm not asking him to keep it in the fairway for 4 rounds, just one.
Thanks scsiegel - Daly has been playing pretty good and length should be a definite plus here.... and I'm not asking him to keep it in the fairway for 4 rounds, just one.
Rd2: 2u Dyson+125 o Choi Kim+150 o Van Pelt Scott-135 o Mahan Haas+120 o Westwood Oosthuizen-125 o Stricker Daly+120 o Toms Dufner-130 o Ogilvy DJ+125 o McIlroy
Rd2: 2u Dyson+125 o Choi Kim+150 o Van Pelt Scott-135 o Mahan Haas+120 o Westwood Oosthuizen-125 o Stricker Daly+120 o Toms Dufner-130 o Ogilvy DJ+125 o McIlroy
1) The line itself: is somebody overvalued because he's a golfchannel or pgatour.com favorite or just gets blindly bet up all the time?
2) Current Form: I usually just look back the last 3-5 tournaments and count the number of times player A has been in the 60's vs. how many times player B has.
3) Major Performance: This week, based on the type of course, I'm looking much more at the British and a little less on the US Open, and hardly none on the Masters'.
4) Head to Head: this is one of my favorites to use and the pay site that I use gives this to me rather easily. I will look at this both for FT and for individual rounds.
5) Attribute stats: these are the correlations that I do. Obviously this week I had nothing to build those correlations on, so I could only go by what I read. I did give length considerably more attenstion this week than I normally would.
6) When we get past rd1, I also like to look at what a player has done in rd2 relative to what they've typically done in rd1. In other words, if they went low do they tend to stay low, or conversely if they sucked, do they tend to continue to suck?
7) In rd2, I also like to look at how they finished rd1. Did they finish on high note or on a low? I'd rather be on the guys that finished on a high.
8) The last thing I can think of is, again on the pay site, I can find how the player does in strong wind relative to his regular scoring average. This is just one number comparison of 5 scoring avg in wind vs 5 year overall avg, but at least it's something.
1) The line itself: is somebody overvalued because he's a golfchannel or pgatour.com favorite or just gets blindly bet up all the time?
2) Current Form: I usually just look back the last 3-5 tournaments and count the number of times player A has been in the 60's vs. how many times player B has.
3) Major Performance: This week, based on the type of course, I'm looking much more at the British and a little less on the US Open, and hardly none on the Masters'.
4) Head to Head: this is one of my favorites to use and the pay site that I use gives this to me rather easily. I will look at this both for FT and for individual rounds.
5) Attribute stats: these are the correlations that I do. Obviously this week I had nothing to build those correlations on, so I could only go by what I read. I did give length considerably more attenstion this week than I normally would.
6) When we get past rd1, I also like to look at what a player has done in rd2 relative to what they've typically done in rd1. In other words, if they went low do they tend to stay low, or conversely if they sucked, do they tend to continue to suck?
7) In rd2, I also like to look at how they finished rd1. Did they finish on high note or on a low? I'd rather be on the guys that finished on a high.
8) The last thing I can think of is, again on the pay site, I can find how the player does in strong wind relative to his regular scoring average. This is just one number comparison of 5 scoring avg in wind vs 5 year overall avg, but at least it's something.
for those of you serious about making money this is great info ^^^
one question for you blairaj, can you give a link where to find the info about how guys perform in the wind? I already pay for that golf observer site and wouldn't mind adding the head to head and wind stats
for those of you serious about making money this is great info ^^^
one question for you blairaj, can you give a link where to find the info about how guys perform in the wind? I already pay for that golf observer site and wouldn't mind adding the head to head and wind stats
On Tour-tips.com, if you look at the profiles >> player, it will have something like "good player in the wind", where it compares their 5 yr avg for all rds vs their 5yr avg in rounds where the wind was over some threshold (I think 10mph). It's not much, but at least it's something
On Tour-tips.com, if you look at the profiles >> player, it will have something like "good player in the wind", where it compares their 5 yr avg for all rds vs their 5yr avg in rounds where the wind was over some threshold (I think 10mph). It's not much, but at least it's something
Bogey - that will take me some to look up, I'll try to look at that in the morning. In general though, I can tell you that looking at that 5 year avg, there was not anybody that I remember that really stood out as being siginificantly different between their 5 yr overall avg and their wind avg. Pretty much everybody was within a 1 stroke avg between wind and strong wind. So, I wouldn't count on any magic insight from the limited data that I can easily get.
Hole 7 was a killer for me today with both DJ and Dyson taking a snowman. If those 2 are pars, I make some nice coin:
Rd2: 4-4, -0.1 Dyson+125 o Choi Kim+150 o Van Pelt Scott-135 o Mahan Haas+120 o Westwood Oosthuizen-125 o Stricker Daly+120 o Toms
Bogey - that will take me some to look up, I'll try to look at that in the morning. In general though, I can tell you that looking at that 5 year avg, there was not anybody that I remember that really stood out as being siginificantly different between their 5 yr overall avg and their wind avg. Pretty much everybody was within a 1 stroke avg between wind and strong wind. So, I wouldn't count on any magic insight from the limited data that I can easily get.
Hole 7 was a killer for me today with both DJ and Dyson taking a snowman. If those 2 are pars, I make some nice coin:
Rd2: 4-4, -0.1 Dyson+125 o Choi Kim+150 o Van Pelt Scott-135 o Mahan Haas+120 o Westwood Oosthuizen-125 o Stricker Daly+120 o Toms
Rd3:2u Stricker+100 o Watson Els+100 o Schwartzel Ishikawa+105 o Woodland Chalmers+100 o Curtis Jacobsen-125 o Jimenez Siem-115 o F-castanzo Adams-110 o Immelman Poulter+120 o Scott Pettersson-115 o Singh (2.5u)
Rd3:2u Stricker+100 o Watson Els+100 o Schwartzel Ishikawa+105 o Woodland Chalmers+100 o Curtis Jacobsen-125 o Jimenez Siem-115 o F-castanzo Adams-110 o Immelman Poulter+120 o Scott Pettersson-115 o Singh (2.5u)
There's way better odds out there than I got, but Carl Pettersson has had 2 weekend leads in his career - one at the Wyndam in North Carolina in 2008 and the other this year in South Carolina this year at the Heritage - he went on to win them both.
There's way better odds out there than I got, but Carl Pettersson has had 2 weekend leads in his career - one at the Wyndam in North Carolina in 2008 and the other this year in South Carolina this year at the Heritage - he went on to win them both.
Rd3:5-4, +1.8 Stricker+100 o Watson Els+100 o Schwartzel Ishikawa+105 o Woodland Chalmers+100 o Curtis Jacobsen-125 o Jimenez Siem-115 o F-castanzo Adams-110 o Immelman Poulter+120 o Scott Pettersson-115 o Singh(2.5u)
Rd3:5-4, +1.8 Stricker+100 o Watson Els+100 o Schwartzel Ishikawa+105 o Woodland Chalmers+100 o Curtis Jacobsen-125 o Jimenez Siem-115 o F-castanzo Adams-110 o Immelman Poulter+120 o Scott Pettersson-115 o Singh(2.5u)
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