TPC Deere Run

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Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: TPC Deere Run
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/10/2012 9:28:57 AM

Well boys, it's birdie fest time at TPC Deere Run! Easy course this week where GIR's and Birdie Average are the top two stats. Accuracy and distance are nonexistent here. It's all about the short game.

Can Stricker four-peat?

stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 7/10/2012 10:49:37 AM
The tournament has been changed 2 the Steve Stricker Classic!!!
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/10/2012 3:02:15 PM

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Zach (+115) over Stricker

Byrd (-120) over Watney

Overton (-115) over Yul Noh

Senden (-120) over Clark

O'Hair (-120) over Moore

Perez (-120) over Davis

Summerhays (-115) over Reavie

Daly (-110) over Villegas

Two Gloves (Ev) over Potter Jr.

Maggert (-120) over Mayfair

 

thoughts....suggestion anyone??

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 7/10/2012 7:29:59 PM
I ran the statistics from last years tournament, and there actually is a fairly strong correlation between score and driving accuracy.  You are correct though in that there basically is no correlation whatsoever for driving distance.
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/10/2012 9:31:25 PM

Nice to know.

You know as well as I do that hitting fairways is a plus, but on this course it won't put you out of the tournament if your driving it poor. A lot of tracks demand accuracy to have a chance at scoring, not Deere Run. I guess that's what I meant to say in the OP...

AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/10/2012 10:41:04 PM

Tournament Matchups

Z. Johnson (+115) over Stricker - 2*

Byrd (-120) over Watney - 5*

O'Hair (-120) over Moore - 5*

Perez (-120) over Davis - 2*

Daly (-120) over Villegas - 2*

 

 

 

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 7/10/2012 11:17:36 PM

We're fading some of the same guys (Watney, and Villegas).  Though I chose to fade Watney with ZJ, as sick as Byrd sounded and how he kind of faded over the weekend, scares me a little with him.  O'Hair and Perez were both close to being plays for me, but I'm trying to tighten up a little on the FT's til I can prove to myself that I can get that % up.

 

stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 7/10/2012 11:54:10 PM
y r we fading  watney??  help please
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 7/11/2012 6:01:41 AM

Watney hasn't shown the consistency yet this year to warrant matchups against either Byrd or ZJ, or to get low for 4 rounds that it's gonna take this week:

                  Bogey Avoidance      Par Breakers

Watney       124                           65

ZJ               19                            11

Byrd            28                            47

He also hasn't played this tourney since 08, and the four times that he's played here, he missed the cut every time. 

Meanwhile, ZJ has played here every year since at least 03, and in the last 3 years has finished:  3, 21, and 2.

AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/11/2012 1:39:19 PM

stats1 -

pretty much for the reason's Blair listed....I was really looking at his history and for some reason he stinks at Deere Run. To me, taking a guy that has historically done VERY well vs. a player that has missed the cut several times is a no brainer!

AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/11/2012 1:45:50 PM
Two Gloves +140 over Potter Jr. for the tourny.....any takers? This would be a fade of last weeks winner....
It's tempting, but the major stats on Two Gloves are WEAK compared to Potter's....
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/11/2012 9:07:57 PM

1st Round Matchups

Hoffman (-120) over Piercy

Atwal (-110) over Kirk

O'Hair (-115) over Crane

Stanley (+130) over Stricker

 

Tournament Matchups

Z. Johnson (+115) over Stricker - 2*

Byrd (-120) over Watney - 5*

O'Hair (-120) over Moore - 5*

Perez (-120) over Davis - 2*

Daly (-120) over Villegas - 2*

 

 

 

NoWorries21 PM NoWorries21
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Posted: 7/11/2012 9:19:42 PM
Similar plays.Daly over Villegas, Zach over Watney and Gainey over Potter my main 3
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Posted: 7/12/2012 6:51:05 AM
stats1 PM stats1
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Posted: 7/12/2012 9:10:51 AM
bol buddy went with u on the stanley-stricker  match up and played stanley 2 win hope he gets off 2 a great start....
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/12/2012 1:21:15 PM

BYRD      

really????

AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/12/2012 11:01:08 PM

2nd Round Matchups

Vegas (+130) over Clark

Stanley (+150) over Stricker

O'Hair (+120) over Crane

Byrd (-110) over Choi

 

 

 

NoWorries21 PM NoWorries21
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Posted: 7/13/2012 8:28:18 AM
Love the value today Molder over Garrigus too
NoWorries21 PM NoWorries21
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Posted: 7/13/2012 8:38:27 AM
Except Molder wd'ed
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/13/2012 9:12:10 AM

FADE AWAY

WillyWonka PM WillyWonka
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Posted: 7/13/2012 9:49:11 AM
vegas fuckin sux
WillyWonka PM WillyWonka
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Posted: 7/13/2012 10:07:51 AM
vegas cant even get up and down from 15 yds fuckin pathetic
WillyWonka PM WillyWonka
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Posted: 7/13/2012 10:09:09 AM
vegas then misses 5 footer for birdie.  how fuckin pathetic.     impossible for this joke to shoot 2 good rounds in a row
Jarrett75 PM Jarrett75
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Posted: 7/13/2012 1:17:58 PM
wonka stop betting if you can't handle losing. I lost $1289 last Sunday and didn't girl and moan as much as you do.
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 7/13/2012 1:51:39 PM

Took Vegas because he seemed to be coming back to life lately and his only win came at another birdie fest tournament...the Bob Hope....that guys sucks FOR  REAL!

I got a friend who is a Texas Alumni and keeps up with Texas golf. He said Vegas sucks and can't believe he has a win already. His college career was not that great and thinks he will probably never win again on TOUR....

WONKA - fade me next time bro...I've been on a down slide here lately...

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