Transitions

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Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: Transitions
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/13/2012 10:31:03 PM
I don't have lines yet, but using Pinnacle lines here's my first pass leans.  I'm really looking to sharpen the pencil this week, so any input on these full tourney matchups is welcome:

Watney-119 o Garcia (2u)
Kuchar-150 o Day
Snedeker-105 o Z. Johnson
Senden-157 o M. Wilson
Petterson-101 o Allenby 
Ishikawa-109 o Noh
DeJonge-128 o Singh
Huh-122 o Walker
Snedeker-127 o Furyk
markblaz PM markblaz
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Posted: 3/13/2012 10:50:26 PM
Do you have any thoughts on a higher odds type guy to win this week? Each week I like to put something small on a guy to win. Not necessarily a favorite that's 15/1 but someone in the 40/1 range

I liked seeing you on Senden in your head to head matchup (although you could be fading Wilson). I was thinking of taking Senden at 40/1 this week. I have also been trying to ride Jimmy Walker until he wins.
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blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/13/2012 11:03:45 PM
I took Senden and Molder in the contest, so those would be a couple I'd look at.  Others that I'd look at would be:  Snedeker, Petterson, and Van Pelt.

It also looks to me like the odds on DeJong are, as they usually are, probably higher than they should be.

I've also been thinking Ishikawa may come on pretty strong, pretty quickly, now that he's dedicating himself to playing in the US.  It looks like his short game numbers were definitely improved last week, so maybe that time is soon.

Bluefin PM Bluefin
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Posted: 3/14/2012 1:26:24 PM
Good luck this week Blair I see we are on a few of the same.
gales PM gales
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Posted: 3/14/2012 1:41:37 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by markblaz:

Do you have any thoughts on a higher odds type guy to win this week? Each week I like to put something small on a guy to win. Not necessarily a favorite that's 15/1 but someone in the 40/1 range

I liked seeing you on Senden in your head to head matchup (although you could be fading Wilson). I was thinking of taking Senden at 40/1 this week. I have also been trying to ride Jimmy Walker until he wins.

 

mark - john houston @40/1 is an auto take any week on the champions tour , he is capable of firing any week and winning on that circuit , he can be a birdie machine for 3 days when he gets that putter going

AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 3/14/2012 2:03:02 PM

Good luck BLAIR!

With you on Watney over Sergio!

 

markblaz PM markblaz
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Posted: 3/14/2012 3:29:56 PM
Thanks for the tip gales!
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blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/14/2012 7:46:20 PM
Thanks everybody

Lots of line movement since last night, some for the better, some for the worse.  I dropped a couple that I didn't like the lines on.

Full Tourney
Watney-135 o Garcia (2u)
Kuchar-125 o Day
Petterson-110 o Allenby 
Ishikawa+125 o Noh
DeJonge-125 o Singh (2u)

Rd1
Na-115 o Garrigus (1.5u)
Day-130 o Els (1.5u)
Schwartzel-130 o Garcia (1.5u)
Goosen-125 o Singh (1.5u)
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/14/2012 7:55:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bluefin:

Good luck this week Blair I see we are on a few of the same.

Yeah, I was leaning toward a 2u play on Petterson.  I see you like him to, so I just added to that one to make it a 2u.
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/15/2012 6:22:25 PM
Rd1: 2-2, -0.68
Na-115 o Garrigus (1.5u)
Day-130 o Els (1.5u)
Schwartzel-130 o Garcia (1.5u)
Goosen-125 o Singh (1.5u)

After 4 holes, pgatour.com was reporting Garrigus' avg distance to the pin as 2'9".  That match was over before it ever really got going.
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/15/2012 8:08:01 PM
Transitions Rd2:
Na-105 o Garrigus (2u)
Goosen-130 o Singh (1.5u)
Day-135 o Els (1.5u)

iceman67 PM iceman67
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Posted: 3/16/2012 6:00:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blairaj:

Transitions Rd2:
Na-105 o Garrigus (2u)

  Great pick,,, excellent line--                      

I tried swearing off Na,,, but this is just screaming reversal tommorrow...

Go to the whip on Senden, I think he has better than a 1 in 18 shot at winning at this point in time,,,  I'm pushing money his way in various wagers.

GL 

iceman67 PM iceman67
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Posted: 3/16/2012 6:03:39 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by markblaz:

I was thinking of taking Senden at 40/1 this week. 

I hope you did this....  I really like him for this week...   GL

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/16/2012 9:10:41 AM
I wish I could get good futures lines.  I have a small bet on senden at a crappy 22:1
Bluefin PM Bluefin
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Posted: 3/16/2012 1:25:13 PM
Good call on NA I tailed you there looks like you called that one on the money brother
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/17/2012 1:30:02 AM
Thanks Blue!  you've helped me out a few times, glad to return the favor.  Wish I woulda had the balls to pound that on as hard as I really wanted to.

My drunken math says I went 2-1 today, something like +1.87.  I'm gonna need it, cause the full tourney matches are for garbage so far.

Rd3
Goosen-120 o Els (2u)
Simpson+105 o Rose (2u)
Furyk+115 o Garcia
Senden+135 o Donald 
Dufner-105 o Harrington (2u)
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/17/2012 1:34:08 AM
I had a 6 team ML dog parlay ruined by Northwestern tonight, 10 to win 2121:

X, StL, S. FL, Ohio, Purdue, NW.

Still made out on straight bets and a 3 teamer with X, StL, and S. FL.  But, damn it woulda been nice to hit that one.
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/17/2012 1:36:13 AM
Dufner-105 o Harrington (3u)
iceman67 PM iceman67
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Posted: 3/17/2012 6:09:04 AM

Dufner is a great pick, and that's another stunning line you got.... 

I'm taking Kenny Perry to mop the floor with K Duke  and SM Bae to put the boots to McNeill

 

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/17/2012 9:08:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iceman67:

Dufner is a great pick, and that's another stunning line you got.... 


After some of the discussion on here last year inspired me, I went to my local and pretty much threatened to take away all the action I give him (which is a pretty damn big amount) unless he let me adjust golf lines from a 30c line to a 10c line, and he gave it to me.  It's paid off huge so far just this year.

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/17/2012 9:11:36 AM
Good thing I played Dufner last night before bed, it would be -140 for me now.
Bluefin PM Bluefin
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Posted: 3/17/2012 9:44:17 AM
Yeah 5 d had em -130 this am 

Best of luck once again with you on a couple, I see you flopped on Furyk, I do that all the time make a case against a player in an early round and then switch it up I like the play I am not one of those that feels Furyk is ready to be classified with Els,Goosen quite yet
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 3/17/2012 9:55:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bluefin:

 I see you flopped on Furyk, I do that all the time make a case against a player in an early round and then switch it up I like the play I am not one of those that feels Furyk is ready to be classified with Els,Goosen quite yet

I look at it kinda like poker.  However much money you've put in the pot is irrelevant and you can't get emotional about it and let it cloud your judgement, what matters is if you're making the right decision for right now.


Bluefin PM Bluefin
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Posted: 3/17/2012 10:35:04 AM
Yeah I been at this game pretty full time for about 30+ years and although I chase some and vary my units up and down(which I take a lot of garbage for). I have pretty much kept my head up for all that time with only a few crippling years. I run simulations track numbers and trends and read alot but still the gut is what brings a good year...like they say you have to know when to hold and when to fold em.

BOL today hard to focus on golf with NCAA madness in full bloom
Bluefin PM Bluefin
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Posted: 3/17/2012 10:39:56 AM
tried to send you a friend request not sure if it went through 
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