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Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: The Bear Trap
AJLightning
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AJLightning
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#1
Posted: 2/27/2012 9:37:43 AM

Off to Florida for the East Coast Swing! The Tour will have four tournaments in the Sunshine State, followed by one in Puerto Rico, one in Texas and then off to Georgia for the Masters! Oh how time flies!

 

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AJLightning
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#2
Posted: 2/27/2012 9:40:20 AM

Honda Classic - Keys to Victory:

#1 - Driving Accuracy

#2 - Putting

#3 - Par 4 Performance

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blairaj
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#3
Posted: 2/27/2012 10:40:23 AM
How are you figuring these keys?  The site I use shows that statiscally driving accuracy would actually be a fairly low priority key behind:

Par 4 performance
GIR
Putting 
Scrambling

Also, don't forget that last year the wind absolutely blew like hell in this tournament.  It's supposed to be in the 10-15 mph range this year, which if my recollection is right, is quite a bit less than last year.  So, last year may have been a bit of an anomoly.
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#4
Posted: 2/27/2012 10:45:48 AM
I'll be there AJ if you wanna come down!
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AJLightning
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#5
Posted: 2/27/2012 11:41:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blairaj:

How are you figuring these keys?  The site I use shows that statiscally driving accuracy would actually be a fairly low priority key behind:

Par 4 performance
GIR
Putting 
Scrambling

Also, don't forget that last year the wind absolutely blew like hell in this tournament.  It's supposed to be in the 10-15 mph range this year, which if my recollection is right, is quite a bit less than last year.  So, last year may have been a bit of an anomoly.

Well, you have two out of three that I have but in a different spot. Just a matter of one's opinion I guess. I think accuracy is one of the keys to sucess this week. The course is tree lined and tight with undulating fairways. Why wouldn't accuracy been a top key?

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#6
Posted: 2/27/2012 1:02:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

Well, you have two out of three that I have but in a different spot. Just a matter of one's opinion I guess. I think accuracy is one of the keys to sucess this week. The course is tree lined and tight with undulating fairways. Why wouldn't accuracy been a top key?


Actually, this is not mine (or anybody's) opinion.  It is a fairly thorough statistical correlation of finish vs. X (where X is each of the main categories) over the last 5 years of the tournament.
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AJLightning
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#7
Posted: 2/27/2012 2:44:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blairaj:


Actually, this is not mine (or anybody's) opinion.  It is a fairly thorough statistical correlation of finish vs. X (where X is each of the main categories) over the last 5 years of the tournament.

Interesting...you would think accuracy would be a key this week.

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#8
Posted: 2/27/2012 3:29:16 PM
Accurate long iron play,driving accuracy, scrambling and putting ha ha like every week with the redesign by Jack this golf course is much more placement than it used to be, if you hit crisp drives and your iron play is sharp you can putt this golf course.Par 3's are all pretty tough with minimal landing area and one redesign par 5 into a four makes the drive there much tougher and more important than it used to be, a few trees have been added to a dogleg or two.If I had to value one part of the game here over all others it would be long high accurate iron shots that allow scoring on the par 3's which are a key on this track. Thats my two cents for what it's wort

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#9
Posted: 2/27/2012 3:31:07 PM
I think those stats just say that the rough is forgiving enough that either the "bomb and gouge" or the "down the middle, on the green" will work.  It really doesn't matter how you get there, as long as you're hitting greens (or missing them in spots that's a high up and down rate)
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#10
Posted: 2/28/2012 8:29:43 PM
does anybody have any good research websites that they could share with me. i had a very good tool that would show each players scoring average at every pga course but the site went to a pay site.

i would really like to bookmark a few good tool websites. thanks in advance!
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#11
Posted: 2/29/2012 9:44:52 AM
http://www.cbssports.com/golf/stats

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AJLightning
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#12
Posted: 2/29/2012 1:54:18 PM
http://www.pgatour.com/r/stats/
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AJLightning
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#13
Posted: 2/29/2012 2:07:56 PM

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Stanley (+110) over Schwartzel

Crane (+110) over Keegan

Furyk (-120) over McDowell

Rose (-130) over Yang

Jacobson (-115) over Oosthuizen

M. Wilson (Ev) over Howell III

Huh (+110) over Walker

Moore (-120) over O'Hair

Sabbatini (-110) over Palmer

Leishman (-120) over Bjorn - ** Might hit this one HARD

Furyk (-110) over Fowler

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#14
Posted: 2/29/2012 3:00:35 PM
I am gonna hammer Wilson over Howell III

looks like you are very invested in he par 4 performance guys..

I like crane... may take him against both Rose and Keegan... Sabbatini is another guy on my list but I wanna see a mathup with someone other than Ohair... may play him in rounds...

other guys on the radar screen (because of par 4 performance and putting)...

Simpson
goydos
happy
watson
toms
laird
kirk
mulroy
wagner

gl this week.. keep it up... probably will tail your Leishman play... basically taking Leishman to make the cut, IMO


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AJLightning
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#15
Posted: 2/29/2012 5:30:43 PM

1st Round Leans:

Crane (-120) over Howell III

Rose (-120) over Oosthuizen

Furyk (-115) over Yang

Keegan (+130) over McIlroy

M. Wilson (-125) over Villegas

Allenby (-120) over McDowell

Pettersson (-125) over O'Hair

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#16
Posted: 2/29/2012 5:53:57 PM
GL this week  
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#17
Posted: 2/29/2012 9:27:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

1st Round Leans:

Crane (-120) over Howell III

Rose (-120) over Oosthuizen

Furyk (-115) over Yang

Keegan (+130) over McIlroy

M. Wilson (-125) over Villegas 

Allenby (-120) over McDowell

Pettersson (-125) over O'Hair

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#18
Posted: 2/29/2012 9:27:21 PM
1st rd:  Rose, Wilson, Petterson - those are the 3 that I came up with!
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#19
Posted: 2/29/2012 9:27:43 PM
AJ,

you think Allenby comes out and plays well after what happened last week?
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#20
Posted: 2/29/2012 9:33:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blairaj:

1st rd:  Rose, Wilson, Petterson - those are the 3 that I came up with!
    r u the new Mr. golf in this forum ???
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#21
Posted: 2/29/2012 9:35:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

Tournament Matchup Leans:

Stanley (+110) over Schwartzel

Crane (+110) over Keegan

Furyk (-120) over McDowell

Rose (-130) over Yang

Jacobson (-115) over Oosthuizen

M. Wilson (Ev) over Howell III

Huh (+110) over Walker

Moore (-120) over O'Hair

Sabbatini (-110) over Palmer

Leishman (-120) over Bjorn - ** Might hit this one HARD

Furyk (-110) over Fowler


I also came up with a lot of the same:  Crane, Jacobson, Moore, Lieshman (also hit hard), Furyk (o. Fowler only).  I was close on Huh, but am never crazy about playing last week's winner, especially his first time here.  
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AJLightning
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#22
Posted: 2/29/2012 9:40:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PennStateMan077:

AJ,

you think Allenby comes out and plays well after what happened last week?

I don't know. He's one of those guys that gets me all the time. You think you have a good read on him and he burns you.

Tough call since the Mayakoba's field was weak. But McDowell saw an early first round exit last week by YE Yang. Yang hasn't been too sharp himself lately either.

So in this particular matchup, I'll go Allenby.

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#23
Posted: 2/29/2012 10:10:55 PM
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AJLightning
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#24
Posted: 2/29/2012 10:16:08 PM
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AJLightning
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#25
Posted: 2/29/2012 10:17:11 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by blairaj:

1st rd:  Rose, Wilson, Petterson - those are the 3 that I came up with!

Rose & Wilson for sure!!

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