Messages

Now that Golfobserver has the stats posted, here is who I like:

Leishman
Garcia
DJohnson
Scott
Haas
Kuchar
Furyk
Villegas
ZJohnson

Fade list:
Jacobson
Allenby
Hoffman
BDavis
Watson
Glover
Kelly
Senden
Mahan
Day
Ogilvy
Yang

Here are my initial Leans for tournament matchups:

Scott +130 over Donald
Furyk +110 over Watney
Garcia -125 over Mahan
ZJohnson -120 over Woodland
Choi -125 over Yang
Kuchar -125 over Day
Villegas -165 over Marino
Schwartzel -110 over Watney
Furyk -105 over Mickelson
Scott -110 over Stricker

Obviously won't play them all, and laying a lot of chalk with those, as opposed to last tournament where I had Dog winners.

Locked in:

Scott +130 vs Donald
Furyk +110 vs Watney
Choi -125 vs Yang
Schwartzel -110 vs Watney

waiting on....
Garcia over Mahan
Scott over Stricker
as those odds are moving in favor of the 2 guys I like

No movement on these that I like:
ZJohnson over Woodland
Kuchar over Day

If you are looking to back VILLEGAS this week, the line just dropped on him at my book from -170 to -135...much better value to say the least...

I'm going to hold and see if it drops more.

Scott +130 vs Donald  - Scott up 1 with 5 to play
Furyk +110 vs Watney - Furyk up 3 after rd 1
Choi -125 vs Yang - Choi up 3 after rd 1
Schwartzel -110 vs Watney - Schwartzel down 2 after bad back 9
Garcia -110 vs Mahan - even, mahan on course
ZJohnson -120 vs Woodland - ZJ up 2, GW 3 holes to play
Kuchar -135 vs Day - Kuchar up 4, Day has 4 to play
Villegas -130 vs Marino - Villegas up 8
Scott +105 vs Stricker - Scott up 2, with a few holes to go

MrBogey - I wish there was a cut as well!  Depends on what your bet strategy is.  Are you a unit bettor where you up units on games you really like or do you keep the same unit all the time and try to win more than you lose on the year?  I am trying to be more disciplined where I only bet games I like vs getting sucked into other games (like MSU last night).

Scott -120/Mahan -110 - Scott played bad yesterday and Mahan shot -2.  Both are safe for next week, so not sure where the extra motivation would come from.  This year when Scott had a bad first round, he would miss the cut.  He never went low on the 2nd day to get back in to it. Mahan seems to be a solid rd 2 player. Lean Mahan

Van Pelt-105/Haas -125 - BVP has shown the ability to bounce back in the 2nd round.  Twice this year he has gone 76/69, 76/67.  His course record here is not great though.  He is currently 28th in Fedex, so he knows he needs to play well.  Haas is 21st in FedEx, so he needs to play solid as well, but has a little more cushion.  He is usually pretty consistent in the first two rounds.  Haas is decent at Cog Hill....no Lean

Baddeley +105/Schwartzel -135 - Baddeley hasn't played Cog Hill since the redo, but was 2nd 4 years ago here after lots of MC.  He is 26th in FedEx, Charl is 32nd on the outside looking in.  Charl has not played Cog Hill.  Baddeley is a real nice rd 2 player.  I think both players play well today, under par.  But lean Baddeley.

Palmer-125/Stallings -105 - Palmer is 57th and Stallings 47th in FedEx.  Palmer has NOT shown the ability to bounce back after a bad rd 1 this year, usually playing bad in rd 2 as well.  Stallings is across the board in rd 2 this year, but I like him to get it going in rd 2 today and get back in the mix for next week.  Lean Stallings.

Simpson -150/DJohnson +120 - Simpson has been very good lately.  Both players are safe for next week.  Webb has shot in the 60's alot this year in rd 1 and only twice has he not followed it up with another round in the 60s and one was a Major.  So look for him to continue his good play.  DJ won this event last year, but yesterday was his 2nd worst round of the year.  I think DJ may mail it in this week due to the bad start, but too much juice on Webb for me to take it.

Watney -125/Stricker -105 - Both are safe for next week.  Stricker shot his worst round of the year, so does he mail it in?  Watney is usually fairly consistent from round 1 to round 2.  Lean Watney

Furyk-135/ZJohnson +105 - Both guys need to finish well this week to make it to next week.  Both have been good here the past 2 years.  Both guys are usually consistent from rd 1 to rd 2.  No lean as I had both these guys on my "like" list before tournament started.

Singh +125/Choi -155 - Both are safe for next week.  Choi blew Singh out of water yesterday.  Choi finished 3rd here last year.  Singh had a couple bad 1st rds this year and didn't bounce back well.  He also shot 77 in rd 2 here last year.  Lean Choi.

Toms -125/Howell -105 - Both need solid play to stay in top 30.  Toms has a better track record here.  Howell had 17 pars yesterday, Toms had 3 birdies on the back side to get going.  Very even matchup.

Dufner -120/Stanley -110 - Both are right outside the top 30.  Dufner is a more established player.  Dufner had been middle of the pack at Cog Hill past 2 years, this is Stanleys first time.  Stanley has been playing better lately.  Lean Stanley.