when it comes to Intl matches I tend to try hard to simply ignore any teams previous game. judging a team simply based on how their previous match went, doesnt always reflect whats happening within. Opponents are different, lineups in some cases are different, MOTIVATION is different. Lots of people suprised of Chiles draw; to me, they could have lost by a goal and still advanced and that is a nice 'safety net' to have when mentally approaching a game. Friend contacts me "see?....Germans let in a goal with a man advantage, terrible defense" so what. they were up two, already through, it's only human to let up a little mentally at that point. but its funny those same people forget to mention Germany came right back and banged in the 3rd goal. so,ehh.... I try to toss out recent games; wipe the slate clean and its 0-0 with a chance for a finals berth for all 4 teams.
busy week, I'd prefer to confirm lineups but oh well.....
Wed:
Confed Cup:
Chile/Portugal draw @+235 - Chile is probably the better team (on paper). but the way theyve progressed..... let me put it this way, if Sampoali was still coaching them, this would probably have been my play of the week. but Pizzi? Ive been really critical of him; when you try to employ a style which isnt suited for the players at your disposal, its just bad coaching. gone is that full-throttle, fast forward approach which had made them feared. gone is that "urgency". If Chile reverts to their old ways, they can win this, that's a BIG "IF", but if the game is close/tied in 2nd half he's gonna choke. sitting back and letting Portugal with Ronaldo come at you like they did with Germany is a death sentence. Hopefully they can keep the fouls down in their end of the field because Portugals height advantage is going to give Chile tons of problems on set pieces.
my first gut instinct is/was a draw and it goes into xtra time, perhaps even penalties. so just gonna stick with that.
UCL Qualifier:
Linfield -1 halftime @-102, Linfield -2.5 @+116 - a fairly decent Northern Ireland team (at this level of competition) vs a amateur San Marino squad. last 3 years the representative from SM whom played in first stage has been outscored 17-3. normally dont like playing big spreads in mid-summer when most are in/on break but this does appear to be an comfortable home win.
US Open Cup:
Miami/Atlanta over 3 @-103 Miami running away with NASL league, and since theres no promotion/relegation in the U.S. these cup games are the lower leagues only chances to show they can compete with bigger budget teams. Miami leads NASL in scoring, Atlanta leads MLS in scoring; with Atlanta apparently taking this seriously (though i cant confirm) they should be coming in with the same lineup up front as the previous round, the goals should be flowing again here.
when it comes to Intl matches I tend to try hard to simply ignore any teams previous game. judging a team simply based on how their previous match went, doesnt always reflect whats happening within. Opponents are different, lineups in some cases are different, MOTIVATION is different. Lots of people suprised of Chiles draw; to me, they could have lost by a goal and still advanced and that is a nice 'safety net' to have when mentally approaching a game. Friend contacts me "see?....Germans let in a goal with a man advantage, terrible defense" so what. they were up two, already through, it's only human to let up a little mentally at that point. but its funny those same people forget to mention Germany came right back and banged in the 3rd goal. so,ehh.... I try to toss out recent games; wipe the slate clean and its 0-0 with a chance for a finals berth for all 4 teams.
busy week, I'd prefer to confirm lineups but oh well.....
Wed:
Confed Cup:
Chile/Portugal draw @+235 - Chile is probably the better team (on paper). but the way theyve progressed..... let me put it this way, if Sampoali was still coaching them, this would probably have been my play of the week. but Pizzi? Ive been really critical of him; when you try to employ a style which isnt suited for the players at your disposal, its just bad coaching. gone is that full-throttle, fast forward approach which had made them feared. gone is that "urgency". If Chile reverts to their old ways, they can win this, that's a BIG "IF", but if the game is close/tied in 2nd half he's gonna choke. sitting back and letting Portugal with Ronaldo come at you like they did with Germany is a death sentence. Hopefully they can keep the fouls down in their end of the field because Portugals height advantage is going to give Chile tons of problems on set pieces.
my first gut instinct is/was a draw and it goes into xtra time, perhaps even penalties. so just gonna stick with that.
UCL Qualifier:
Linfield -1 halftime @-102, Linfield -2.5 @+116 - a fairly decent Northern Ireland team (at this level of competition) vs a amateur San Marino squad. last 3 years the representative from SM whom played in first stage has been outscored 17-3. normally dont like playing big spreads in mid-summer when most are in/on break but this does appear to be an comfortable home win.
US Open Cup:
Miami/Atlanta over 3 @-103 Miami running away with NASL league, and since theres no promotion/relegation in the U.S. these cup games are the lower leagues only chances to show they can compete with bigger budget teams. Miami leads NASL in scoring, Atlanta leads MLS in scoring; with Atlanta apparently taking this seriously (though i cant confirm) they should be coming in with the same lineup up front as the previous round, the goals should be flowing again here.
Germany/Mexico over 2.5 @-112 - not going to pick a side, though I do feel Mexicans have the quality to suprise this group of Germans. but going to take the 'over' simply on how I feel the flow of this match will go. Germany has conceded in every match and their back line just gives up too much space. Australia got 2, Chile 1, Cameroon banged one in; and at this point and current form,Mexico is lot more technically skilled going forward than any of the other 3 teams. Javier is a pain in the a** for anyone to handle and Mexicans have a bunch of seasoned vets whom half of their squad earn their paychecks in Europe. finding the back of the net vs this defense shouldnt be much of a problem for them. On the other end of the field though, is where the Germans excel. Mexico will be unable to contain Draxler; they had a really hard time with Pulisic in Concacaf qualifying, and though it probably isnt a fair comparison, what Pulisic and Draxler do are fairly similar; its just that Draxler does it 5x better. and has a supporting cast 5x better. Werner, Kimmich, Wagner, and Draxler are just too much for this defense. I wouldnt not be suprised to see Osorio insert Marquez into the starting lineup for stability and to handle those crosses into the box (especially if Wagner starts). but regardless, going forward the Germans are just too much, have too many weapons and in a match where I just dont see the defenses dominating and with plenty of goal-scoring chances, at this price it is worth the risk.
Europa Qual: ran out of time, Id be leery of playing 'overs', pick ur spots, in the last two years in this competition in the 1st leg its sumthin' like 62-37 record for the Under 2.5.
Germany/Mexico over 2.5 @-112 - not going to pick a side, though I do feel Mexicans have the quality to suprise this group of Germans. but going to take the 'over' simply on how I feel the flow of this match will go. Germany has conceded in every match and their back line just gives up too much space. Australia got 2, Chile 1, Cameroon banged one in; and at this point and current form,Mexico is lot more technically skilled going forward than any of the other 3 teams. Javier is a pain in the a** for anyone to handle and Mexicans have a bunch of seasoned vets whom half of their squad earn their paychecks in Europe. finding the back of the net vs this defense shouldnt be much of a problem for them. On the other end of the field though, is where the Germans excel. Mexico will be unable to contain Draxler; they had a really hard time with Pulisic in Concacaf qualifying, and though it probably isnt a fair comparison, what Pulisic and Draxler do are fairly similar; its just that Draxler does it 5x better. and has a supporting cast 5x better. Werner, Kimmich, Wagner, and Draxler are just too much for this defense. I wouldnt not be suprised to see Osorio insert Marquez into the starting lineup for stability and to handle those crosses into the box (especially if Wagner starts). but regardless, going forward the Germans are just too much, have too many weapons and in a match where I just dont see the defenses dominating and with plenty of goal-scoring chances, at this price it is worth the risk.
Europa Qual: ran out of time, Id be leery of playing 'overs', pick ur spots, in the last two years in this competition in the 1st leg its sumthin' like 62-37 record for the Under 2.5.
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