There are a handful of mismatches coming back off the break, and a handful of intriguing matches too. Here's what I'm playing:
Teplice -130. I suspect Brno to continue their poor showing from the first half of the season, and Teplice should take care of things at home.
Hradec Kralove Pick +109. I don't see where all this respect for Dukla is coming from. Favored on the road? Kralove is no power, but I'll take the home side. The DRAW at +210 looks tempting.
Karvina +.5, -130. Boleslav is clearly the better side, but we all know they're a much different team on the road than at home. Karvina finished the first half in 7th place, just two spots below Boleslav, and at home to win or draw I'll lay the juice.
Zlin +.5, +106. I do not know what's going on with this number. Zlin is the better team by far, and really didn't lose all that much to transfers over the break. Liberec made a lot of changes and has a new lineup, but I'm not seeing how it's going to be much better than the side that finished 13th in the first half. This number is such a gift I'm hesitant to bet it, but I'll take a shot.
Good to finally be back after the break, good luck to everyone this weekend.
There are a handful of mismatches coming back off the break, and a handful of intriguing matches too. Here's what I'm playing:
Teplice -130. I suspect Brno to continue their poor showing from the first half of the season, and Teplice should take care of things at home.
Hradec Kralove Pick +109. I don't see where all this respect for Dukla is coming from. Favored on the road? Kralove is no power, but I'll take the home side. The DRAW at +210 looks tempting.
Karvina +.5, -130. Boleslav is clearly the better side, but we all know they're a much different team on the road than at home. Karvina finished the first half in 7th place, just two spots below Boleslav, and at home to win or draw I'll lay the juice.
Zlin +.5, +106. I do not know what's going on with this number. Zlin is the better team by far, and really didn't lose all that much to transfers over the break. Liberec made a lot of changes and has a new lineup, but I'm not seeing how it's going to be much better than the side that finished 13th in the first half. This number is such a gift I'm hesitant to bet it, but I'll take a shot.
Good to finally be back after the break, good luck to everyone this weekend.
Hradec Kralove 0, +0.5 (+100). Betting on bad teams on the road is typically not a way to make money, but as bad a Kralove are, Jihlava are worse. I'll take the Asian line on the road team to win or draw.
I'm looking at a few more for the weekend, but wanted to get this one in before kickoff.
Hradec Kralove 0, +0.5 (+100). Betting on bad teams on the road is typically not a way to make money, but as bad a Kralove are, Jihlava are worse. I'll take the Asian line on the road team to win or draw.
I'm looking at a few more for the weekend, but wanted to get this one in before kickoff.
Teplice get the draw at Boleslav to make it another 2-2 week for me.
Interesting to note -- since coming back from the break, 13 out of 16 matches in the Czech league have gone UNDER 2.5 goals, including FIVE scoreless draws. The scoring has slowed down a bit in February.
Teplice get the draw at Boleslav to make it another 2-2 week for me.
Interesting to note -- since coming back from the break, 13 out of 16 matches in the Czech league have gone UNDER 2.5 goals, including FIVE scoreless draws. The scoring has slowed down a bit in February.
Plzen +.5 (-119). Slavia have all the momentum in the world coming off an 8-1 thrashing of Pribram, having won five in a row, and overtaking Plzen for top of the table. But I still think Plzen is the better side, and if I can get fairly short odds on them to win or draw I'll gladly take it, even on the road.
Zlin Pick (-108). I've been skeptical of Zlin so far, but I'm starting to come around. They've been a very good away side, and Karvina have not been strong at home. I think the draw (+210) might not be a bad bet in this one either, but I'll take Zlin for the away win.
Sparta & Liberec ML parlay (-104). When I said square I meant square. Nothing more so than the ol' moneyline parlay. I think the odds on Liberec are a little outrageous (-333), but Pribram are just so awful this one likely won't be close. Sparta (-196) have been dominant at home, and should have little trouble with Dukla.
Plzen +.5 (-119). Slavia have all the momentum in the world coming off an 8-1 thrashing of Pribram, having won five in a row, and overtaking Plzen for top of the table. But I still think Plzen is the better side, and if I can get fairly short odds on them to win or draw I'll gladly take it, even on the road.
Zlin Pick (-108). I've been skeptical of Zlin so far, but I'm starting to come around. They've been a very good away side, and Karvina have not been strong at home. I think the draw (+210) might not be a bad bet in this one either, but I'll take Zlin for the away win.
Sparta & Liberec ML parlay (-104). When I said square I meant square. Nothing more so than the ol' moneyline parlay. I think the odds on Liberec are a little outrageous (-333), but Pribram are just so awful this one likely won't be close. Sparta (-196) have been dominant at home, and should have little trouble with Dukla.
Rough way to lose last weekend, with Plzen giving up the winning goal two minutes from time. It was the difference between a losing week and a winning week. For this weekend:
Jablonec +.5 (-115) and Karvina +.5 (-120). Same rationale for both of these plays: upper-table teams playing on the road at lower-table teams, needing just a draw to take the money. Jihlava and Dukla have both won just 3 of 10 home matches this season, proving they can't take care of business at home. Going against better opponents I don't see why this doesn't hold form.
Teplice +1, +1.5 (-107). I think first place Slavia is still receiving too much credit. They're having a great year and they're at home, but Teplice is quietly in sixth place, and have won or drawn 7 of 10 away matches. Needing to lose by 2 for an outright loss is too much.
Once again last week, 7 of 8 matches went UNDER 2.5 goals, and there were only 7 total goals scored in all 8 matches combined. This makes 20 of 24 (83%) unders since returning from the holiday break, including 8 scoreless draws. Books have adjusted, and the UNDER 2.5 is the favorite in all 8 matches this weekend (most in the -130 to -150 range).
Rough way to lose last weekend, with Plzen giving up the winning goal two minutes from time. It was the difference between a losing week and a winning week. For this weekend:
Jablonec +.5 (-115) and Karvina +.5 (-120). Same rationale for both of these plays: upper-table teams playing on the road at lower-table teams, needing just a draw to take the money. Jihlava and Dukla have both won just 3 of 10 home matches this season, proving they can't take care of business at home. Going against better opponents I don't see why this doesn't hold form.
Teplice +1, +1.5 (-107). I think first place Slavia is still receiving too much credit. They're having a great year and they're at home, but Teplice is quietly in sixth place, and have won or drawn 7 of 10 away matches. Needing to lose by 2 for an outright loss is too much.
Once again last week, 7 of 8 matches went UNDER 2.5 goals, and there were only 7 total goals scored in all 8 matches combined. This makes 20 of 24 (83%) unders since returning from the holiday break, including 8 scoreless draws. Books have adjusted, and the UNDER 2.5 is the favorite in all 8 matches this weekend (most in the -130 to -150 range).
Teplice gave up a very late goal to lose by 1 which split that bet last weekend. Otherwise I finally had a good week.
A couple of mid-week makeup games this week. One today:
Jablonec / Kralove 2.5 OVER (-107). Despite the continued low scoring since the return from break, I'm going against it today. These teams both played on Saturday, and even though they both got shut out, they have been two of the more high-total teams over the course of the season. On two days' rest I'm hoping we see the defense slip and get a few goals. Tough to go against a trend that's really held up well over four weeks now, but I think we'll see three or more goals today.
Teplice gave up a very late goal to lose by 1 which split that bet last weekend. Otherwise I finally had a good week.
A couple of mid-week makeup games this week. One today:
Jablonec / Kralove 2.5 OVER (-107). Despite the continued low scoring since the return from break, I'm going against it today. These teams both played on Saturday, and even though they both got shut out, they have been two of the more high-total teams over the course of the season. On two days' rest I'm hoping we see the defense slip and get a few goals. Tough to go against a trend that's really held up well over four weeks now, but I think we'll see three or more goals today.
Nice winner yesterday going against a recent trend. One more mid-week makeup game today:
Plzen +105. I know I've been burned recently taking Plzen away, but I'm going back to it one more time. They've drawn or lost their last three away matches, but Bohemians are just not good, and at + money I'll take the better side.
Nice winner yesterday going against a recent trend. One more mid-week makeup game today:
Plzen +105. I know I've been burned recently taking Plzen away, but I'm going back to it one more time. They've drawn or lost their last three away matches, but Bohemians are just not good, and at + money I'll take the better side.
A nice 2-0 with the midweek makeup games. Just two for the weekend:
Slovacko / Boleslav DRAW (+220). Boleslav are the better side, but they aren't great away from home. Slovacko struggle to win games at home, but they are a draw machine -- 6 of 10 home matches have ended in draws. At +220 I'll take this and hope for a nice scoreless or 1-1 match.
Jablonec -1 (+100). I'm fading Jihlava here, they are absolute garbage. They've scored just three goals away all year, so I'm not worried that they'll do much. I'm not concerned that Jablonec won't win, just whether or not they can score twice to cover the -1. I considered coupling Jablonec and Teplice on a parlay at +116, and I might end up doing that.
A nice 2-0 with the midweek makeup games. Just two for the weekend:
Slovacko / Boleslav DRAW (+220). Boleslav are the better side, but they aren't great away from home. Slovacko struggle to win games at home, but they are a draw machine -- 6 of 10 home matches have ended in draws. At +220 I'll take this and hope for a nice scoreless or 1-1 match.
Jablonec -1 (+100). I'm fading Jihlava here, they are absolute garbage. They've scored just three goals away all year, so I'm not worried that they'll do much. I'm not concerned that Jablonec won't win, just whether or not they can score twice to cover the -1. I considered coupling Jablonec and Teplice on a parlay at +116, and I might end up doing that.
Karvina +.5, +1 (+106). This line is so far off it makes me suspicious. No way Liberec should be that big of a favorite. I'll bite, but I'm a little wary. Brno / Dukla DRAW (+205). Brno has drawn 7 of 10 home matches. Dukla has drawn 3 of 10 away. Add it up and we should have about a 50/50 chance of a tie score here; at +205 I'll take a shot.
Pribram Pick (+125). This one scares me a little, because Pribram is just horseshit. But they are a surprisingly solid home side, and Bohemians are just crap on the road. You don't win money long term by betting on the worst team in the league, but I'm giving it a shot.
Slavia (-106). In the big match of the week, the Prague derby of Slavia / Sparta, I'll take the home side. They've been on a tear lately and might win the league this year. They do not lose at home, and Sparta won't have enough.
Karvina +.5, +1 (+106). This line is so far off it makes me suspicious. No way Liberec should be that big of a favorite. I'll bite, but I'm a little wary. Brno / Dukla DRAW (+205). Brno has drawn 7 of 10 home matches. Dukla has drawn 3 of 10 away. Add it up and we should have about a 50/50 chance of a tie score here; at +205 I'll take a shot.
Pribram Pick (+125). This one scares me a little, because Pribram is just horseshit. But they are a surprisingly solid home side, and Bohemians are just crap on the road. You don't win money long term by betting on the worst team in the league, but I'm giving it a shot.
Slavia (-106). In the big match of the week, the Prague derby of Slavia / Sparta, I'll take the home side. They've been on a tear lately and might win the league this year. They do not lose at home, and Sparta won't have enough.
I got a nice hit on that draw two weeks ago. Just two more this weekend:
Jablonec 0, +.5 (-107). I like Jablonec to win or draw in this spot against a pretty bad Brno side.
Boleslav -1 (-106). I don't like laying a full goal, but I think it's the way to go here. Bohemians have been sinking and Boleslav should take advantage at home.
I got a nice hit on that draw two weeks ago. Just two more this weekend:
Jablonec 0, +.5 (-107). I like Jablonec to win or draw in this spot against a pretty bad Brno side.
Boleslav -1 (-106). I don't like laying a full goal, but I think it's the way to go here. Bohemians have been sinking and Boleslav should take advantage at home.
And just like that I'm in the negative numbers. Two for this week to turn it around:
Boleslav Pick (-101). Brno have been in decent form as of late, and have taken points from their last three home matches. But I think they sputter against a Boleslav side anxious to hold onto 4th place with Teplice and Zlin right behind them.
Jablonec -1, -1.5 (-116). It's a lot to lay, but against Pribram they should be okay. Pribram have scored only five away goals all season, and Jablonec have been in solid form lately.
And just like that I'm in the negative numbers. Two for this week to turn it around:
Boleslav Pick (-101). Brno have been in decent form as of late, and have taken points from their last three home matches. But I think they sputter against a Boleslav side anxious to hold onto 4th place with Teplice and Zlin right behind them.
Jablonec -1, -1.5 (-116). It's a lot to lay, but against Pribram they should be okay. Pribram have scored only five away goals all season, and Jablonec have been in solid form lately.
I'm jumping the gun a little this week, but I'll be on airplanes all of Thursday so need to post these now:
Jihlava Pick, -.5 (+122). Jihlava are the dregs of the league, yet surprisingly solid at home. I'll take them at this price against a Brno squad that struggles on the road.
Plzen -1 (+105). Square play here, but Dukla are a pretty weak road team, and Plzen can score in bunches at home against weaker opponents. I'll lay a full goal.
Bohemians +.5 (+105). Bohemians have sunk pretty far down the table, but I see no reason for making Liberec such a decided favorite. This one seems about even to me, so I'll take a half-goal at plus money.
I'm jumping the gun a little this week, but I'll be on airplanes all of Thursday so need to post these now:
Jihlava Pick, -.5 (+122). Jihlava are the dregs of the league, yet surprisingly solid at home. I'll take them at this price against a Brno squad that struggles on the road.
Plzen -1 (+105). Square play here, but Dukla are a pretty weak road team, and Plzen can score in bunches at home against weaker opponents. I'll lay a full goal.
Bohemians +.5 (+105). Bohemians have sunk pretty far down the table, but I see no reason for making Liberec such a decided favorite. This one seems about even to me, so I'll take a half-goal at plus money.
Boleslav & Dukla ML parlay (+125). Square play here, but I'm fading the two worst road teams in the league against solid home opponents. Not much more to say about it.
Karvina +.5 (-107). It's tough to take a team like Karvina on the road, but Slovacko are a bad team in a bad spot. and if all Karvina needs to do is earn a draw I'll take it.
Slavia -.5, -1 (-112). Another square play here, but sometimes the favorites are favorites for a reason. Slavia are fighting with Plzen for the title, while Bohemians are fighting off relegation. I'm taking the better team on the road.
Two other matches this weekend really confuse me, and I don't know what to make of them:
Brno (-150) is somehow a favorite, and a fairly heavy favorite at that, against a much better Zlin side. I have no idea where this is coming from, as Zlin is the superior side, and even on the road should probably be a favorite. The books are begging for Zlin money, which makes me want to lay the juice and take Brno.
Similarly, Hrade Kralove is essentially even (Pick -108) against a much, much better Teplice side that still has a chance to qualify for Europe next year. The obvious play is Teplice, which makes me think Kralove is probably the way to bet.
I'll be interested to see how these two play out. Best of luck to all this weekend.
Boleslav & Dukla ML parlay (+125). Square play here, but I'm fading the two worst road teams in the league against solid home opponents. Not much more to say about it.
Karvina +.5 (-107). It's tough to take a team like Karvina on the road, but Slovacko are a bad team in a bad spot. and if all Karvina needs to do is earn a draw I'll take it.
Slavia -.5, -1 (-112). Another square play here, but sometimes the favorites are favorites for a reason. Slavia are fighting with Plzen for the title, while Bohemians are fighting off relegation. I'm taking the better team on the road.
Two other matches this weekend really confuse me, and I don't know what to make of them:
Brno (-150) is somehow a favorite, and a fairly heavy favorite at that, against a much better Zlin side. I have no idea where this is coming from, as Zlin is the superior side, and even on the road should probably be a favorite. The books are begging for Zlin money, which makes me want to lay the juice and take Brno.
Similarly, Hrade Kralove is essentially even (Pick -108) against a much, much better Teplice side that still has a chance to qualify for Europe next year. The obvious play is Teplice, which makes me think Kralove is probably the way to bet.
I'll be interested to see how these two play out. Best of luck to all this weekend.
Nice 3-0 week. Trying now to keep it rolling. With only three weeks left in the season and not that much left to be decided, motivation could be a factor in some of these matches.
Karvina +.5, +1 (+102). Karvina are a difficult home side, and despite being in 9th place they've been playing hard and are in good form. Sparta are obviously the better side, but they have virtually no chance to catch Plzen and Slavia for the Champions League slots next year, and have very little chance of dropping out of the Europa League slots. Nothing really to play for on either side, I'll take the home side plus the number. I might even take a little for them to win at +425.
Liberec (+128). Liberec are in much better form than Jablonec, having won four of their last six. Jablonec seem to have packed it in, and they've only won two matches away from home all season even at top form. A draw is always possible, but at this number I like the home side.
Slovacko +.5 (-119). This is a tough bet to make. Slovacko are a bad team and they're on the road, but they only need to pull out a draw against a really really bad Hradec Kralove side that has something to play for, sitting firmly in the relegation zone but only two points from pulling themselves out. If Slovacko show up for this one they should manage at least a draw.
Teplice & Slavia (+130) (1/2 unit play). Trying another ML parlay for just a half-play. Slavia are at home and battling with Plzen for the title, and should have little trouble against a much weaker Dukla side. Teplice have a very real chance at catching Boleslav for the 4th spot and a place in the Europa League next year. With Boleslav up against Plzen this week, Teplice should bring everything they have against a very weak Bohemians side, in very poor form, sitting just outside the relegation zone. If you don't like parlays, Teplice at -152 should be a solid play if you don't mind the juice.
Nice 3-0 week. Trying now to keep it rolling. With only three weeks left in the season and not that much left to be decided, motivation could be a factor in some of these matches.
Karvina +.5, +1 (+102). Karvina are a difficult home side, and despite being in 9th place they've been playing hard and are in good form. Sparta are obviously the better side, but they have virtually no chance to catch Plzen and Slavia for the Champions League slots next year, and have very little chance of dropping out of the Europa League slots. Nothing really to play for on either side, I'll take the home side plus the number. I might even take a little for them to win at +425.
Liberec (+128). Liberec are in much better form than Jablonec, having won four of their last six. Jablonec seem to have packed it in, and they've only won two matches away from home all season even at top form. A draw is always possible, but at this number I like the home side.
Slovacko +.5 (-119). This is a tough bet to make. Slovacko are a bad team and they're on the road, but they only need to pull out a draw against a really really bad Hradec Kralove side that has something to play for, sitting firmly in the relegation zone but only two points from pulling themselves out. If Slovacko show up for this one they should manage at least a draw.
Teplice & Slavia (+130) (1/2 unit play). Trying another ML parlay for just a half-play. Slavia are at home and battling with Plzen for the title, and should have little trouble against a much weaker Dukla side. Teplice have a very real chance at catching Boleslav for the 4th spot and a place in the Europa League next year. With Boleslav up against Plzen this week, Teplice should bring everything they have against a very weak Bohemians side, in very poor form, sitting just outside the relegation zone. If you don't like parlays, Teplice at -152 should be a solid play if you don't mind the juice.
Rough week. Two very late goals sunk two of my bets, but that's how it goes sometimes.
Most teams have nothing left to play for so motivation these last two weeks will be difficult to gauge. Here are my plays for this weekend:
Bohemians -1 (-114). I don't like laying a full goal, but I think Bohemians win this one without too much trouble. Karvina are the better side, but they seem to have packed it in for the season. Bohemians, on the other hand, are in very real danger of relegation and need these three points to stay clear of the danger zone. I think they have one last flicker of life in them this season, and we'll see it tomorrow.
Zlin +1 (+105). Zlin have been in really bad form lately, and I suppose this line is reflective of that. But they got a nice boost mid-week when they won the Mol Cup and entry into the Europa League for next year, and I think they ride that momentum here on the road.
Jihlava (-111). This one should be an absolute stinker of a match between two of the league's worst teams. But Pribram are just plain terrible on the road, and Jihlava know they need these three points to stay clear of relegation. With a match at Plzen next week, this is likely their last chance at points this season and they'll know it.
Rough week. Two very late goals sunk two of my bets, but that's how it goes sometimes.
Most teams have nothing left to play for so motivation these last two weeks will be difficult to gauge. Here are my plays for this weekend:
Bohemians -1 (-114). I don't like laying a full goal, but I think Bohemians win this one without too much trouble. Karvina are the better side, but they seem to have packed it in for the season. Bohemians, on the other hand, are in very real danger of relegation and need these three points to stay clear of the danger zone. I think they have one last flicker of life in them this season, and we'll see it tomorrow.
Zlin +1 (+105). Zlin have been in really bad form lately, and I suppose this line is reflective of that. But they got a nice boost mid-week when they won the Mol Cup and entry into the Europa League for next year, and I think they ride that momentum here on the road.
Jihlava (-111). This one should be an absolute stinker of a match between two of the league's worst teams. But Pribram are just plain terrible on the road, and Jihlava know they need these three points to stay clear of relegation. With a match at Plzen next week, this is likely their last chance at points this season and they'll know it.
Another last minute goal last week kept me from going 2-0-1. Had to settle for 1-1-1 and a small loss for the weekend. It's the last week of the season, and barring a meltdown I'm looking at another half-season in the + money. Not huge profit, but it's better than a punch to the person.
Here are three final plays to end the season:
Dukla +.5 (-111). I guess the thinking here is that Teplice will destroy Dukla since they're at home and can still claim the second Europa League spot for next year with a win and a Boleslav loss. But Dukla are right there with Teplice in the table and I don't see them rolling over. Dukla +330 is also tempting.
Boleslav / Liberec OVER 3 (+112). Boleslav know they need this one to secure their Europa League spot for next year, so I suspect they'll be coming out aggressive, leading to chances on both ends. Liberec are no slouch; they've only lost once at home all year, averaging two goals per game at home. I think we see four or more in this one.
Bohemians +.5 (-116). I understand that Hradec Kralove need this match if they want any hope of getting out of the relegation zone, but there's a reason they're in the relegation zone to begin with -- they're bad. Bohemians really aren't much better, but they've been a surprisingly adequate away side this year, and they haven't seemed to pack it in. I think a win or a draw is the likely outcome here.
Best of luck to everyone this weekend, and thanks to those who stopped by this thread over the year. See you again in August.
Another last minute goal last week kept me from going 2-0-1. Had to settle for 1-1-1 and a small loss for the weekend. It's the last week of the season, and barring a meltdown I'm looking at another half-season in the + money. Not huge profit, but it's better than a punch to the person.
Here are three final plays to end the season:
Dukla +.5 (-111). I guess the thinking here is that Teplice will destroy Dukla since they're at home and can still claim the second Europa League spot for next year with a win and a Boleslav loss. But Dukla are right there with Teplice in the table and I don't see them rolling over. Dukla +330 is also tempting.
Boleslav / Liberec OVER 3 (+112). Boleslav know they need this one to secure their Europa League spot for next year, so I suspect they'll be coming out aggressive, leading to chances on both ends. Liberec are no slouch; they've only lost once at home all year, averaging two goals per game at home. I think we see four or more in this one.
Bohemians +.5 (-116). I understand that Hradec Kralove need this match if they want any hope of getting out of the relegation zone, but there's a reason they're in the relegation zone to begin with -- they're bad. Bohemians really aren't much better, but they've been a surprisingly adequate away side this year, and they haven't seemed to pack it in. I think a win or a draw is the likely outcome here.
Best of luck to everyone this weekend, and thanks to those who stopped by this thread over the year. See you again in August.
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