Serie B:
Frosinone to win @+185 - nice value here. though on the road they are currently in 4th place and a win puts them top of table (temporarily). decent on the road with a 3-3-2 record, but more importantly they are 2-1-0 allowing just 1 goad in last 3. Trapani is dead last one of the worst defenses & tied for 2nd fewest goals scored. at home they are 1-5-3 with just 6 goals scored.
France:
Angers to win @+120 - home dominated series. this is more of a play against the visiting team. Angers stuck in mid-table, nothing special, decent at home with a 3-3-2 10/8 goals. struggle vs the top and handle those below. Nantes in relegation 2nd from last are 2-1-5 on road with 6/15 goals and are 0-0-3 scoring just once in last 3.
Poland (experience taught me to always bloody check the weather conditions first before making a mid-december play in Poland, fields arent in good shape to begin with, add snow and lovely below freezing temps at night can make 'overs' dicey. but this one is a "go":
Ruch/Wisla both teams to score @-143 (STRONG system play)
Ruch/Wisla over 2.5 @-125, over 3.5 @+190
- to start off with, both teams scoring has hit 14 out of the last 17 times these two have played. Ruch dead last with a 2-1-6, 11/17 goals) 5 straight overs at home & 10 straight overall scoring at least once in 9 of them. Wisla stuck in mid-table and really need to win this one, which in my eyes is KEY to this wager; 1-2-6 with a whopping 11/22 goals on their road adventures. last 3 road matches 0-2-1 with 14 goals total. Theyve scored in all but 1 of their 12 matches this season on the road. (all competitions). Both are tied leading the league in total goals (64).
Hoffenheim/Dortmund both to score @-150 - a tad pricey for my liking but... (without going too far back), this has hit 9 out of the last 10 times these teams have played. Stats indicate that Hoff almost always score at home, and Dort almost always scores on road, dont like the way Dortmund has been playing, but they cannot afford to lose and fall further behind.
Hoff/Dortmund draw @+285- not digging too deeply into this one, just a gut play. Dort cannot fall behind any further from Munich (whom are expected to get their 3 pts tmrw vs last place Darnstadt). I dont like the way theyre playing of late; but they havent lost here in their past 4 visits, 1-3-0 with 3 straight draws. Hoffenheim actually havent lost yet this season (6-8-0....the 'draw' champs of Bund) and are bloody tough at home (4-3-0, 13/6 goals). everything points to a draw but going lightly here, Friday nights games in Bund this season have been VERY KIND to to visiting teams (3-1-0).
Parlays:
Chorza/Krakow + Hoff/Dort over 2.5 @+261
Argentinia (nice value here):
Talleres @+185 - this team has 3 straight clean sheets on the road, one of them was powerful 2nd place Estudiantes. they are in 9th place and have conceded just 7 goals in 13 matches. (which is currently the best in entire 30 team league). 3-2-2 with 8/5 goal on the road. Huracan are having a terrible year, currently in 29th and looks to be one of the relegation contenders. winless at home; and are 0-2-4 3/9 goals in past 6. hoping for a solid 0-1 victory here.
And whats a Friday w/out Jupiler league:
Jupiler over 2.5 parlay @+1810 (like those seniors at beginning of months when their govt checks arrive, hop on the SAME charter bus with the SAME driver, whom go to the SAME casino, wearing the SAME lucky sweater, with the SAME bucket holding their coins sitting in front of the SAME slot machine.... thats me with Jupiler) may the soccer gods be with me. score gawddangittttt!!!!!!