I took the first week off just to get a sense of where teams are at, and to get a look at how they came out of break. I'm taking three this weekend:
Pribram (Pick, +170). Pribram looked pretty bad losing 2-0 away to Zlin last week, but Zlin is a decent side and that's not a terrible loss. Bloeslav is overvalued based on their 3-0 thumping of a bad Liberec side at home last week. But last year Boleslav were killers at home and just mediocre on the road. At Pick +170 I'll take the home side.
Brno (Pick, +130). Brno is still something of a mystery since their match last week was postponed due to weather, but they finished 6th last year; I can't take newcomers Karvina in this spot, even at home. I know I underestimated newcomers Zlin last year for the entire first half, but Karvina needs to prove it before they deserve being big favorites.
Hradec Kralove (Pick, +140). Hradec Kralove may be one of the two new teams this year, but they're no strangers to the 1st Liga. They proved that last week by soundly beating Bohemians away (although Bohemians are not good, and might get relegated this year). Coming back home I think they can take a Jablonec side that is a bit overvalued based on last year's finish, and last week's victory over Karvina.
I also like Plzen at home against what I think is going to be a bad Bohemians side, but I'm obviously not going to play them at -550, and I don't like -2, +100 all that much. While they should win, they are likely a bit stretched after their two recent CL qualifying matches, and two goals is too much for me.
I don't usually take so many Pick plays, but there should be some draws this week and I'm protecting myself. Best of luck to all.
I took the first week off just to get a sense of where teams are at, and to get a look at how they came out of break. I'm taking three this weekend:
Pribram (Pick, +170). Pribram looked pretty bad losing 2-0 away to Zlin last week, but Zlin is a decent side and that's not a terrible loss. Bloeslav is overvalued based on their 3-0 thumping of a bad Liberec side at home last week. But last year Boleslav were killers at home and just mediocre on the road. At Pick +170 I'll take the home side.
Brno (Pick, +130). Brno is still something of a mystery since their match last week was postponed due to weather, but they finished 6th last year; I can't take newcomers Karvina in this spot, even at home. I know I underestimated newcomers Zlin last year for the entire first half, but Karvina needs to prove it before they deserve being big favorites.
Hradec Kralove (Pick, +140). Hradec Kralove may be one of the two new teams this year, but they're no strangers to the 1st Liga. They proved that last week by soundly beating Bohemians away (although Bohemians are not good, and might get relegated this year). Coming back home I think they can take a Jablonec side that is a bit overvalued based on last year's finish, and last week's victory over Karvina.
I also like Plzen at home against what I think is going to be a bad Bohemians side, but I'm obviously not going to play them at -550, and I don't like -2, +100 all that much. While they should win, they are likely a bit stretched after their two recent CL qualifying matches, and two goals is too much for me.
I don't usually take so many Pick plays, but there should be some draws this week and I'm protecting myself. Best of luck to all.
A rough start, just like last year. For this weekend:
Zlin (Pick +105). I'm not really sure why Liberec is favored in this one. They have been underwhelming in their first two matches, scoring just one goal. Zlin's first two matches have looked good, albeit against two of the worst teams in the league. At a Pick and + money I'll take the home team.
Teplice (Pick +120). Teplice are on a nice start to the season with a draw against Sparta and a win away over Dukla. Brno have played just once, a very disappointing draw at newcomer Harvina. Here's another one where I think the wrong team is favored, even if they are at home.
Sparta (-1, -110). I just can't back Bohemians right now, even at home. They are overvalued due to last week's draw against Plzen. I expect to see the side that lost 3-0 at home to Hradec Kralove rather than the side that drew Plzen away.
Boleslav should crush Karvina, but the juice is too high for me. It's tempting to parlay them with Plzen, but I've learned my lesson about soccer parlays. Best of luck to all this weekend.
A rough start, just like last year. For this weekend:
Zlin (Pick +105). I'm not really sure why Liberec is favored in this one. They have been underwhelming in their first two matches, scoring just one goal. Zlin's first two matches have looked good, albeit against two of the worst teams in the league. At a Pick and + money I'll take the home team.
Teplice (Pick +120). Teplice are on a nice start to the season with a draw against Sparta and a win away over Dukla. Brno have played just once, a very disappointing draw at newcomer Harvina. Here's another one where I think the wrong team is favored, even if they are at home.
Sparta (-1, -110). I just can't back Bohemians right now, even at home. They are overvalued due to last week's draw against Plzen. I expect to see the side that lost 3-0 at home to Hradec Kralove rather than the side that drew Plzen away.
Boleslav should crush Karvina, but the juice is too high for me. It's tempting to parlay them with Plzen, but I've learned my lesson about soccer parlays. Best of luck to all this weekend.
Also, Hradec Kralove might be worth a look at +400. Dukla does not deserve that kind of respect, and Hradec is not nearly as bad as that number suggests.
Also, Hradec Kralove might be worth a look at +400. Dukla does not deserve that kind of respect, and Hradec is not nearly as bad as that number suggests.
Dukla (+145). Just way too much respect here for Karvina, especially given Dukla's nice start to the season. I'm tempted by the DRAW at +215, but I'll take Dukla for the away win.
Jablonec (+.5, +145). Sparta is being overvalued here, simply because they're Sparta. Jablonec have built on last year's solid season with another good start, and getting them to win or draw at this price is tasty.
Brno / Liberec 2.5 UNDER (-125). Two offensively-challenged teams (just three goals combined in five matches) in this one. Should be a snoozer.
Dukla (+145). Just way too much respect here for Karvina, especially given Dukla's nice start to the season. I'm tempted by the DRAW at +215, but I'll take Dukla for the away win.
Jablonec (+.5, +145). Sparta is being overvalued here, simply because they're Sparta. Jablonec have built on last year's solid season with another good start, and getting them to win or draw at this price is tasty.
Brno / Liberec 2.5 UNDER (-125). Two offensively-challenged teams (just three goals combined in five matches) in this one. Should be a snoozer.
Jablonec (+138). I'm going right back to them after they burned me last week. Bohemians looking like they're a good candidate for relegation this year.
Brno / Slovacko 2.5 UNDER (-125). Two contrasting styles -- Slovacko's matches averaging almost 4 goals per game so far, while Brno's have been less than 1.0. I'll take the home team to dictate tempo and slow things down. Last week's under with Brno was an easy winner in a scoreless draw.
Plzen -1 (+105). What's wrong with Plzen? Just one goal from their first two home games; currently 14th out of 16 teams in the home standings. Slavia is no slouch, but this should be the day Plzen breaks out.
Jablonec (+138). I'm going right back to them after they burned me last week. Bohemians looking like they're a good candidate for relegation this year.
Brno / Slovacko 2.5 UNDER (-125). Two contrasting styles -- Slovacko's matches averaging almost 4 goals per game so far, while Brno's have been less than 1.0. I'll take the home team to dictate tempo and slow things down. Last week's under with Brno was an easy winner in a scoreless draw.
Plzen -1 (+105). What's wrong with Plzen? Just one goal from their first two home games; currently 14th out of 16 teams in the home standings. Slavia is no slouch, but this should be the day Plzen breaks out.
Zlin / Slovacko DRAW (+239). Zlin! How is Zlin coming out of the break at the top of the table? They've yet to lose a match. Slovacko is unbeaten at home, and I think both of those trends continue today.
I'll look at the rest of the weekend later. Best of luck to all.
Zlin / Slovacko DRAW (+239). Zlin! How is Zlin coming out of the break at the top of the table? They've yet to lose a match. Slovacko is unbeaten at home, and I think both of those trends continue today.
I'll look at the rest of the weekend later. Best of luck to all.
Hradec Kralove (+135). Zlin is still undefeated on the season, yet they're underdogs away to Hradec? I realize Kralove is having a good start to the season, but it feels like they're begging us to take Zlin. I won't bite.
I might also make a small play on Bohemians, but generally -140 is a little too high for me.
Hradec Kralove (+135). Zlin is still undefeated on the season, yet they're underdogs away to Hradec? I realize Kralove is having a good start to the season, but it feels like they're begging us to take Zlin. I won't bite.
I might also make a small play on Bohemians, but generally -140 is a little too high for me.
Slovan Liberec (-105). This is another one of those lines that has me completely thrown. Liberec should not be favored here -- winless at home and sitting just outside the relegation zone, against a Teplice side that has won 2 of their 4 away matches. Too good to be true, so I'll take the unlikely favorite.
Zlin / Jablonec DRAW (+220). Brno / Sparta DRAW (+265). I only need to hit one of these to turn some profit. Zlin are still unbeaten, and I think that holds this week, but I like Jablonec in this spot. This one could easily draw. Brno are unbeaten at home so far, and although Sparta are the better side they're going through some turmoil right now, and at +265 this price is too nice to pass by.
Slovan Liberec (-105). This is another one of those lines that has me completely thrown. Liberec should not be favored here -- winless at home and sitting just outside the relegation zone, against a Teplice side that has won 2 of their 4 away matches. Too good to be true, so I'll take the unlikely favorite.
Zlin / Jablonec DRAW (+220). Brno / Sparta DRAW (+265). I only need to hit one of these to turn some profit. Zlin are still unbeaten, and I think that holds this week, but I like Jablonec in this spot. This one could easily draw. Brno are unbeaten at home so far, and although Sparta are the better side they're going through some turmoil right now, and at +265 this price is too nice to pass by.
Great results last time out, as I hit both of my DRAW picks at good payouts.
Bohemians Pick (+120). I think Boleslav are overvalued here. Yes, they are second on the table and have been playing very well away this year. But Bohemians are sneaky good this year -- sitting sixth in the table, and in surprisingly good form right now. I think Boleslav is the better side, but at this price I'll take the Pick.
Teplice (+100). Again, what is going on with these Zlin lines? Zlin is sitting third in the table, and are the second best away side (undefeated away from home this year). Teplice, meanwhile, are dreadful at home, taking just two points from four home matches. Yet Teplice are the clear favorites? When everything points in one direction, I'll go the other.
And that's all I'm taking this weekend. A couple of big favorites I like (Sparta at home, Plzen away) that look good, but way too much juice to play. Maybe put them together on a parlay at even money?
Great results last time out, as I hit both of my DRAW picks at good payouts.
Bohemians Pick (+120). I think Boleslav are overvalued here. Yes, they are second on the table and have been playing very well away this year. But Bohemians are sneaky good this year -- sitting sixth in the table, and in surprisingly good form right now. I think Boleslav is the better side, but at this price I'll take the Pick.
Teplice (+100). Again, what is going on with these Zlin lines? Zlin is sitting third in the table, and are the second best away side (undefeated away from home this year). Teplice, meanwhile, are dreadful at home, taking just two points from four home matches. Yet Teplice are the clear favorites? When everything points in one direction, I'll go the other.
And that's all I'm taking this weekend. A couple of big favorites I like (Sparta at home, Plzen away) that look good, but way too much juice to play. Maybe put them together on a parlay at even money?
I missed the first two days of the weekend, but there's one tomorrow I like:
Plzen (+110). Plzen have not been dominant this year as in past years. Sparta are unbeaten on the road this year. Plzen had a midweek Europa league match and may be fatigued. All these things point to a Sparta upset this week, but I'll still take Plzen at home at + money, regardless of the situation.
I missed the first two days of the weekend, but there's one tomorrow I like:
Plzen (+110). Plzen have not been dominant this year as in past years. Sparta are unbeaten on the road this year. Plzen had a midweek Europa league match and may be fatigued. All these things point to a Sparta upset this week, but I'll still take Plzen at home at + money, regardless of the situation.
Teplice Pick (+110). For whatever reason, Teplice has been a much better side away from home, and Slovacko really aren't much no matter where they play. I think Teplice has just as much of a chance to win as the home team does, if not more. I'll take that at + money.
Zlin +1 (-110). We all know Boleslav are absolute beasts at home, and they put up a ton of goals at home. They may very well win this. But I don't see them winning by two over Zlin, and I think Zlin has a great chance to pull a draw or even win. I'll take my chances with a goal in hand.
Jablonec / Slavia OVER 2.5 (-120). Getting a little juicy, but these are two teams very good at both scoring and conceding. I might take a shot on a smaller play at OVER 3.5 (+200) as well. Four goals does not seem unrealistic at all.
Teplice Pick (+110). For whatever reason, Teplice has been a much better side away from home, and Slovacko really aren't much no matter where they play. I think Teplice has just as much of a chance to win as the home team does, if not more. I'll take that at + money.
Zlin +1 (-110). We all know Boleslav are absolute beasts at home, and they put up a ton of goals at home. They may very well win this. But I don't see them winning by two over Zlin, and I think Zlin has a great chance to pull a draw or even win. I'll take my chances with a goal in hand.
Jablonec / Slavia OVER 2.5 (-120). Getting a little juicy, but these are two teams very good at both scoring and conceding. I might take a shot on a smaller play at OVER 3.5 (+200) as well. Four goals does not seem unrealistic at all.
Back again after the international break. I'll be looking at Saturday and Sunday's games tomorrow, but for Friday I like:
Jihlava / Zlin DRAW (+215). Jihlava is one of the worst teams in the league at home, and Zlin is one of the best on the road. It's hard to see why Jihlava is a short favorite, but I'm not convinced Zlin will win outright. I like my chances on the draw.
Back again after the international break. I'll be looking at Saturday and Sunday's games tomorrow, but for Friday I like:
Jihlava / Zlin DRAW (+215). Jihlava is one of the worst teams in the league at home, and Zlin is one of the best on the road. It's hard to see why Jihlava is a short favorite, but I'm not convinced Zlin will win outright. I like my chances on the draw.
Today's match is about to start, but here are the others I'm looking at for the weekend:
Hradec Kralove +.5 (-110). Too much respect here for Slovacko. They've only won once at home all year, and Kralove is a surprisingly competent road team. To win or draw I'll take them.
Brno / Pribram UNDER 2.5 (-110). In six matches, Pribram have yet to score a goal away from home this year. They are awful. Even if they manage a goal this weekend, can Brno score two more to push it over? I doubt it.
Plzen (+180). This should be a great match. Boleslav are monsters at home, but they have surprisingly dropped two already this year (to Zlin and Karvina!). And they drew their last home match, against Brno. They are not what they were last year. Plzen to win at almost 2:1 money? Yes, please.
Today's match is about to start, but here are the others I'm looking at for the weekend:
Hradec Kralove +.5 (-110). Too much respect here for Slovacko. They've only won once at home all year, and Kralove is a surprisingly competent road team. To win or draw I'll take them.
Brno / Pribram UNDER 2.5 (-110). In six matches, Pribram have yet to score a goal away from home this year. They are awful. Even if they manage a goal this weekend, can Brno score two more to push it over? I doubt it.
Plzen (+180). This should be a great match. Boleslav are monsters at home, but they have surprisingly dropped two already this year (to Zlin and Karvina!). And they drew their last home match, against Brno. They are not what they were last year. Plzen to win at almost 2:1 money? Yes, please.
Another rough week. It will be good to have some time off, as these are the last matches until February. Just two this weekend, I'm scaling it back as I limp into the break:
Teplice +1.5 (-130). Sparta is way overvalued here. They are the better side, and they are at home, but Teplice is a solid away side. They may lose, but not by two goals.
Slovacko +1 (+100). These look like two very even teams. Getting a goal at even money sounds good.
Another rough week. It will be good to have some time off, as these are the last matches until February. Just two this weekend, I'm scaling it back as I limp into the break:
Teplice +1.5 (-130). Sparta is way overvalued here. They are the better side, and they are at home, but Teplice is a solid away side. They may lose, but not by two goals.
Slovacko +1 (+100). These look like two very even teams. Getting a goal at even money sounds good.
I finished the first half with a couple of winners to end on a high note. Happy holidays to everyone else on the forum, I'll be back posting on the Czech league in February. In the meantime I'll be following all the rest of your plays and insights. Thanks and best of luck to all.
I finished the first half with a couple of winners to end on a high note. Happy holidays to everyone else on the forum, I'll be back posting on the Czech league in February. In the meantime I'll be following all the rest of your plays and insights. Thanks and best of luck to all.
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