FC Porto v. Boavista UNDER 2.5 @ +110 (1.00 to win 1.10)
These Porto plays have been on fire, and I'm going to the match in the morning so I'll give it another go. Love this one tomorrow and here is why....
1. FC Porto are locked in third position and have no reason to go crazy here. This has been the case for the past 2 weeks in which both matches went OVER, but there is one substantial difference heading into this week, and the difference is that the cup final is next week in Lisboa, and that is a MASSIVE match for the club that has had such a disappointing season. That means that whereas the last two weeks were treated as important to perform well because they wanted to see players back in form by the time they were heading into the cup final, the most important thing in this match is that they are fully healthy and fit going into the final. This means that some of the starters may not play and if they do a couple of important pieces are likely to be subbed early.
2. Boavista is officially safe as far as relegation is concerned and the match means nothing to them more than pride. Boavista is not a high scoring squad, and that means when they go to Porto they will look for a point through defending, not through attacking. If they end up losing 1-0 or 2-0 this is no big deal for them, but they will try to keep the match tight as long as possible, although I don't see them taking any wild gambles going forward as they will be content with a close scoreline even if they lose.
3. Both teams are from Porto, but this has to be the friendliest derby I have seen. I haven't heard one negative comment about Boavista from a single Portista and the their stadium is about a ten minute drive apart. In a last game of the season where fans from both squads will be present and there is no bad blood between the two, this is setting up to be a very casual and friendly affair.
4. It has been raining since last thursday every single day, and the forecast for tomorrow morning is gloomy and raining. The first few days the rain was really no big deal, but at this point the entire city is sick of it, and there is just a gloomy lackadaisical feeling surrounding the city. The players have had to deal with this all week and I am sure they are feeling it to. Now they have a game with no implications on a cold, rainy pitch, it just isn't much to get excited about. As far as the fans are concerned most of the people I work with who get free tickets have no interest in even going if its raining as all they care about is next weeks cup final. The game is at 11:45 in the morning local time, which makes it an even less exciting event given the circumstances. I expect both the crowd and the players to be a bit lackluster tomorrow, and it should translate to a low scoring event.
5. The OVER is massively juiced which is a bit puzzling, but if you look at Porto's last several matches it makes a little bit of sense. Porto have played 4 straight over matches, and the line suggests they will walk through Boavista, but I just can't detect any motivation to blow them out, and they should be happy to keep the ball and patiently look for a goal. 1-0 or 2-0 is more than enough here. If you look at the history of this matchup, only 2 of the last 10 have gone over, so the price here for a under is quite attractive.
Overall, the conditions surrounding this game point pretty definitively to a snoozy match to me. Good luck to all if you hop on board (of course at your own risk)