The game that caught my eye for my musing today is the
Aldershot v Forest Green Rovers match in the National League.
I think that the majority of teams, at the end of any given
season, actually end up in and around where they were at the end of the
previous season. There is some literature to this effect on the WWW. That being
the case we have Forest Green, who made the Playoff Finals, starting the season
following on from where they left off with Nine Straight Wins. In their last 5
they have managed a paltry 2 Draws. Given the low scoring nature of football,
it is more than likely that a team such as forest Green would go 5 or 6 games
once or twice during the season with that kind of performance.
I was interested in seeing that Aldershot who finished 18th
in the Table last year had had a good run of form, winning 3 out of 5 matches.
My initials thoughts were that we have an underperforming team playing against
an over performing team and that using a Miffer’s Maxim of Bet good teams and
oppose bad teams tonight’s foray into the world of the bookmaker was going to
be an away win.
However, before doing so I did a bit of work on each teams
results and their strength of schedule. I won’t bore you with the maths lest to
say Forest Green Rovers had a performance index of 43 for their first nine
games, but only 12 for the last 5. Aldershot then surprised me as they had an
index of 25 for the initial nine matches and 28 for the last five.
The result is that Aldershot aren’t over performing as much as
I thought. Therefore, despite taking time to compile figures, the outcome is a
non-bet.
Just because you have burnt time looking at a match does not mean you have to
have a bet!!!!!!
I did have a look at the over but my odds were 1.91 and the
book I use for posting on Covers was only 1.71. So no value there for me.
Paula, however (and as brave as ever) is taking the plunge
on a 2-2 scoreline @15.0
The game that caught my eye for my musing today is the
Aldershot v Forest Green Rovers match in the National League.
I think that the majority of teams, at the end of any given
season, actually end up in and around where they were at the end of the
previous season. There is some literature to this effect on the WWW. That being
the case we have Forest Green, who made the Playoff Finals, starting the season
following on from where they left off with Nine Straight Wins. In their last 5
they have managed a paltry 2 Draws. Given the low scoring nature of football,
it is more than likely that a team such as forest Green would go 5 or 6 games
once or twice during the season with that kind of performance.
I was interested in seeing that Aldershot who finished 18th
in the Table last year had had a good run of form, winning 3 out of 5 matches.
My initials thoughts were that we have an underperforming team playing against
an over performing team and that using a Miffer’s Maxim of Bet good teams and
oppose bad teams tonight’s foray into the world of the bookmaker was going to
be an away win.
However, before doing so I did a bit of work on each teams
results and their strength of schedule. I won’t bore you with the maths lest to
say Forest Green Rovers had a performance index of 43 for their first nine
games, but only 12 for the last 5. Aldershot then surprised me as they had an
index of 25 for the initial nine matches and 28 for the last five.
The result is that Aldershot aren’t over performing as much as
I thought. Therefore, despite taking time to compile figures, the outcome is a
non-bet.
Just because you have burnt time looking at a match does not mean you have to
have a bet!!!!!!
I did have a look at the over but my odds were 1.91 and the
book I use for posting on Covers was only 1.71. So no value there for me.
Paula, however (and as brave as ever) is taking the plunge
on a 2-2 scoreline @15.0
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