The National Embarrassment angle, developed so wonderfully by my pal Scal, and so profitable during the NBA season this year, is in full effect on Saturday when Brazil takes on Holland. Except you should probably multiply the embarrassment factor by a factor of ten, since soccer is the most popular, watched sport on the planet. Brazil’s loss at the hands of Germany (and their performance in general) was so historically bad and unprecedented that it is hard to account for in words. Brazil had not lost on home soil, in a competitive match, since 1975. But it wasn’t the loss so much as the manner in which they lost: humiliated, on the biggest stage in the world, in front of a hundred thousand fans, in the most important game of their lives. But the loss, and the way they lost, means even more to the players and Brazilian fans than we, as fans, can understand or know. This was like a national tragedy, except, they still have to play another game and the fans still have to show up. It’s like having to host a party after you’ve been given a death sentence, except, how you host that party, or how successful it is, can make your death somewhat less painful. So yes, the 3rd place game has often been nothing more than a glorified exhibition game, but this is different. This one matters, on many, many levels. First, the Brazilians have to show up and play hard for a full 90 minutes. Something they failed to do after 20 minutes of the semi. Second, they have to play defense, because each goal the Dutch make against them will seem like a continuation of the barrage of goals that came their way in the semi, by a team, the Dutch, that are not dissimilar to another Northern European soccer power that just destroyed them.
Soccer, of all sports, feels like one long foreplay, with only an opportunity or two for copulation or climax. But what the Germans did to Brazil, felt more like rape. They had their way with them, again and again and again. In other words, this kind of humiliation effeminizes a man, which he can only respond to by proving his manhood to the world. We saw this in game 2 of the NBA finals (for which I offered a write-up, based on a similar premise as this one). I picked the Heat to win against the mighty Spurs on the road (which, by the way, was the only game they won). Why did I pick the Heat? Because LBJ, and the Heat with him, were embarrassed on national TV. His body quit on him; that strong, muscular, herculean body of his went limp on him cause of cramps, on the biggest stage. He became the butt of jokes, and so did his team; cause once LBJ went out of the game, they too, shriveled under the heat. The only way to wash away the shame of what happened (the effeminization that took place) was with a victory, and they did enough to win that game. The Brazilians will have to have a similar response, even in a meaningless game. Who knows, maybe they can embarrass the Dutch, a team that Argentina (Brazil’s biggest rival) could not beat in regulation, by doing what the German’s did to them.
As for the Dutch, after playing back to back OT games and losing in heartbreaking fashion, they have their bags packed and are ready to go on vacation. Their coach and some of the players have said they have no interest in this 3rd place game. To them, it is simply an afterthought that they wish they didn’t have to think about all. In fact, the coach has been lobbying to have the 3rd place game removed from the WC schedule for the last 10 years. The Dutch coach has even considered making wholesale changes to his lineup, giving his starters a break and putting guys in who haven’t played much this WC. And if you don’t believe me, read this articles:
https://sports.yahoo.com/news/louis-van-gaal-blasts-fifa-for-continuing-to-play-world-cup-third-place-game-000718235.html
https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/weary-dutch-interest-3rd-place-game-24502058
That’s why betting on the over worries me here. I think Brazil will give max effort on defense, unless they are a ahead by a couple of goals. But I can easily see a 2-0, 1-0, or 2-1, Brazil win, which at best would be a push. For me, the better bet is Brazil to win. I jumped at the line early, when it was -135 and I know -150 is a lot of juice but I don’t like getting mossed. Frankly, I think the Dutch have no interest in another OT game (which would be their 3rd one in a row), especially when considering the fact that they have no interest in the game at all, so taking Brazil at -.5 is also a solid bet.
Good Luck!