Posted: 4/13/2013 12:13:58 AM
Covers Posted Soccer: 127-103 +47.77units
Good evening my friends, 2 games for Saturday in the Barclay's Premier League.
1. Liverpool v Reading over 2.5 -160 to win 2 units
I decided to play the 2.5 line on this rather than the 3 because 3 of my 4 models came out with exactly 3 goals while the 4th model spat out a 3-1 result for the Reds. I don't normally play this much juice but unlike the next play that I will get into, I have to trust my numbers and consider that a total of 3 goals is the most probable outcome for this match.
I look for Liverpool to find the back of the net with relative ease in this game but I won't lay the money nor will I lay the goal and a half simply because 2 of my models give me a 2-1 final.
Would I play over 3 if you can't get a 2,5? sure because If I'm right and it lands on 3 you would at least get your money back.
Liverpool has scored 29 and conceeded 26 on the road this season for a total of 55 in 16 league away matches for a 3.44 gpg average. They ahve scored 2 or more in 10 of their 16 road games which is a mirror to Reading's home stats because Reading has allowed 2 or more in 10 of 16 home games. Defensively, Liverpool have managed only 3 clean sheets on the road.
As for Reading, 31 conceeded and 23 scored at home for an average of 3.37 gpg at home. You can start to see how my stats are pointing to 3 goals as the most probable outcome although my gut tells me we might see 4 or even 5.
I have also factored that they have conceeded 2 or more goals in 18 of their 32 games this season and have only 3 clean sheets in 32 league matches. Reading have conceded 2 or more in 5 of their last 6 league games at home.
Liverpool is 13-3 "over" 2.5 in their road games included 10 straight. They conceeded 3 to Southampton and 1 to Aston Villa in their last 2 road games. Their last game was a 0-0 home draw to West Ham, a game they really didn't look all that interested in. I expect a different performance today. The likes of Sturridge and Suarez should be too much for a Reading team that has conceeded the most goals in the premiership this season (63). Liverpool ranks 3rd in away goals and has a slim outside chance of qualifying for Europe. Reading is destined to be relegated.