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Author: [Soccer] Topic: Saturday Soccer
fever
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fever
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#1
Posted: 4/13/2013 12:13:58 AM

Covers Posted Soccer: 127-103 +47.77units

Good evening my friends, 2 games for Saturday in the Barclay's Premier League.

1. Liverpool v Reading over 2.5 -160 to win 2 units

I decided to play the 2.5 line on this rather than the 3 because 3 of my 4 models came out with exactly 3 goals while the 4th model spat out a 3-1 result for the Reds.   I don't normally play this much juice but unlike the next play that I will get into, I have to trust my numbers and consider that a total of 3 goals is the most probable outcome for this match.

I look for Liverpool to find the back of the net with relative ease in this game but I won't lay the money nor will I lay the goal and a half simply because 2 of my models give me a 2-1 final. 

Would I play over 3 if you can't get a 2,5? sure because If I'm right and it lands on 3 you would at least get your money back.

Liverpool has scored 29 and conceeded 26 on the road this season for a total of 55 in 16 league away matches for a 3.44 gpg average. They ahve scored 2 or more in 10 of their 16 road games which is a mirror to Reading's home stats because Reading has allowed 2 or more in 10 of 16 home games.  Defensively, Liverpool have managed only 3 clean sheets on the road.

As for Reading, 31 conceeded and 23 scored at home for an average of 3.37 gpg at home. You can start to see how my stats are pointing to 3 goals as the most probable outcome although my gut tells me we might see 4 or even 5. 

I have also factored that they have conceeded 2 or more goals in 18 of their 32 games this season and have only 3 clean sheets in 32 league matches.  Reading have conceded 2 or more in 5 of their last 6 league games at home. 

Liverpool is 13-3 "over" 2.5 in their road games included 10 straight. They conceeded 3 to Southampton and 1 to Aston Villa in their last 2 road games.  Their last game was a 0-0 home draw to West Ham, a game they really didn't  look all that interested in. I expect a different performance today. The likes of Sturridge and Suarez should be too much for a Reading team that has conceeded the most goals in the premiership this season (63). Liverpool ranks 3rd in away goals and has a slim outside chance of qualifying for Europe.  Reading is destined to be relegated.

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fever
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#2
Posted: 4/13/2013 12:34:58 AM

2. Arsenal v Norwich over 3 -117 to win 2 units

Unlike the first game in which I got a most probable tally of 3 goals, this game is different as 3 of my 4 models give me 4 goals while the last spreadsheet lands on 3.  As such, I will play the 3 rather than lay the heavy price on 2.5 at Bet 365.  I think Arsenal gets to 3 on their own in this one and conceds as well as they have been prone to do.

Arsenal of scored 39 and conceded 20 in their 15 home matches this season for a gpg average of 3.93. They are second in the BPL for goals scored at 39, second only to Manchester United's 40.  However, Arsenal has only 4 clean sheets at home and have seen the highest goals per game average in the BPL for home games this season.

Norwich has scored only 12 away goals this season and allowed 32 in 16 road games for a gpg average of 2.75.  Because of Arsenal's propensity for allowing a home goal I give Norwich an away goal in this match.  Arsenal have allowed a goal in 6 of their last 7 at home including conceeding to Reading, Aston Villa and West Ham.  Norwich is relatively safe for another season of BPL action so will play with a little more openness in this match.  Arsenal is gunning (pardon the pun) for a Champions League spot and currently sits 2 points behind 4th place Tottehnham and 3rd place Chelsea.  Goals will be the focus for the Gunners keeping in mind that there is a very real probability of tie breakers coming into effect due to the congestion in the top 5 of the table.  

Arsenal will look to avenge the 1-0 loss to Norwich from earlier in the season, admittedly when the Gunners looked to be a struggling side.  Local news has critics and fans being critical about Norwich's lack of propensity to push forward in matches.  However, they look to be safe but a losing streak with a couple of teams beneath them getting hot could put them right back into a relegation battle.  They should look to push forward in this match, more so than they have been doing of late.  Last season's meeting at the Emirates Stadium ended 3-3. 

While I don't see Norwich pulling off that same result as last year here, I do see goals in this game.  While Norwich doesn't normally concede that many goals, I do note that against top tier teams lately, they allowed 4 away to Man United and 5 away to Liverpool.

 

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#3
Posted: 4/13/2013 1:58:44 AM

Thought about tailing, but the prices have moved a ton. Win or lose you certainly got the best of the numbers. Best of luck tomorrow as always

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Jhneetrsh
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#4
Posted: 4/13/2013 2:28:47 AM
BOL Fever 
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fever
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#5
Posted: 4/13/2013 1:54:30 PM
ADDED:

Afternoon Serie A:

Fiorentina v Atalanta over 2.5 +100 (BET 365)

Gotta keep this one short ... Getting ready for a house full of guests for my son's birthday party tonight.

2-1 is my most probable score for this game.

Cheers.



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Raiders22 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 4/13/2013 1:59:07 PM
G/L ---have fun at party!
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fever
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#7
Posted: 4/13/2013 5:09:11 PM
Thanks Raiders .... Lots of guests tonight ... House is gonna be a madhouse.
Gonna take a few days off to re-work my player ratings after this little cold-streak ... Sometimes we have to accept we need a "mental" break.

Cheers
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fever
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fever
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#8
Posted: 4/13/2013 8:09:26 PM
I know I said I would be laying off but these two games flash "action" on my spreadsheets so I will be playing them tomorrow

SToke v United over 2.5 -105
Chelsea v Man City over 2.5 -120

Each to win 2 units.

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