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Author: [Soccer] Topic: Futbol '13 - The Business Approach and Picks
Consigliere send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/7/2012 9:57:34 AM

Gentleman,

 

I bid you all a good evening.  The purpose of this thread is to illustrate that taking a proper business philosophy towards sports wagering, along with discipline and proper money management, can yield you long term profit.  To that end, this thread will serve to illustrate the approach which puts the odds in your favor, and therefore, hopefully make you money.

 

About Me

 

I have been a long time reader of the Cover's forum, and have been wagering for a couple of years.  Sadly, there are so many threads that are worthless, distracting, and truthfully, unhelpful.

 

I have been wagering for a couple of years now.  My favorite sports to watch and wager are NCAA Football and Futbol.  Perhaps this goes hand in hand with wager success rate?  Regardless, Futbol is the world's game.  Pure, simplistic at heart.  

In 2011, I learned quite a few lessons about wagering.  I began with a $500 bankroll during the college football season.  Using my business approach, at the time, I turned $500 into $9,000 by Week 10 of the season.  Unfortunately, a couple of things hurt me.

 

1.  I had never won so much before, and I was not playing disciplined amounts.  I "shot for glory" so to speak.  When I got up big, I was making $3,000 - $5,000 plays.

 

2.  Some sports do not work well for the business strategy below.  So, along with making very large plays, I was also taking on more 'risky' sports.

 

Ultimately, I ended up in 2011 about where I started.  It was quite the ride though and very entertaining.  

 

The 2012 season could not come soon enough.  I set out again with $500 at my disposal.  Utilizing the same method, I have grown my roll to it's current state at $10,900.

 

This doesn't mean I didn't take losses along the way this year.  I certainly did.  I took an early season loss when then undefeated USC played Stanford.   A couple weeks later, I took another large loss when the Florida State Seminoles lost at N.C. State.

 

The difference?  I was playing reasonable amounts compared to 2011.  With USC, I lost about $1,800 and with Florida State I lost about $2,000.  However, in each case, I still had over $3,000 remaining in my account, enough to make a comeback.

 

How does this relate to futbol?  Well, the same principle strategy I utilized in college football, can be (and is) utilized in this sport.  A couple of differences, however.  

 

College Football is unique in that every game a team plays is like a playoff game.  One loss, and the team is likely out of the national championship.  This means that every game, a team's motivation is high.  Typically, you don't have to worry about let-downs.  Because of this, I am confident of placing $2,000 - $2,500 on a combination of teams.

 

With Futbol, and many other sports, this motivation factor does not exist.  There are too many games in a season.  Therefore, one should not be risking $2,000 on this business strategy.  Instead, with my $10,000 roll, the most I will play on a futbol wager will likely be $500.  Please keep that in mind as we progress through the season.  

--- Continued Below -----

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#2
Posted: 12/7/2012 9:58:22 AM

Consigliere's Business Strategy

 

The most important thing to remember is this:  it's a marathon, not a sprint.  I have won some, and lost some.  Nobody is 100% picking games.

 

That being said, you have to have the following type of mentality:  What is my probability of LOSING the game, not the probability of winning.

 

To any business man, if you would tell him that he could make 30% - 50% Return on Investment in 3 to 9 hours hours, he would jump at that opportunity.  The point being that when it comes to wagering, too many people approach it as such.  Gambling, wagering, combination of skill-luck.  Instead, approach it as a business investment.

 

How many business people enter an investment, with the expectation/hope of doubling their investment immediately?  (I.e. taking a team at -110 odds or at + odds.

 

Too many people make the mistake of always playing -110 spreads. That is essentially a coin flip, unless you have insider information.  50% chance of losing.  The odds are against the players.  Therefore, over the long haul, players will lose and books will win.

 

My main strategy is to parlay large favorites for a Return on Investment (ROI) between 45% - 75%.  

 

Remember, you are ONLY as strong as your weakest link when it comes to Money Line parlays.  

 

If I have the following parlay:

 

Team A  - 1500 ML

Team B  -  750 ML

Team C  -  -550 ML

Team D  -  -1000 ML

 

My weakest link here is the -550 ML.  Which is around a 13% - 17% chance of losing.  According to the odds, I have around a 83 - 87% chance of my weakest link hitting.  (Much better than the 50/50 coin flip playing -110 spreads.)

 

However, this parlay may pay me 70% Return on Investment.    It's worth the risk to win 65% - 75% of my investment, and have over 80% chances of EACH wager hitting.

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#3
Posted: 12/7/2012 9:58:54 AM

Takes Money to Make Money

 

In order to make money, it takes money (i.e. capital).  I will not lie, in order to employ a 45 - 70% ROI strategy, it means you must have a decent amount of working capital to begin with.  However, this is relative to the amount you wish to win.

 

If you start with $500, the aim should be to win $30 - $50 wagers.  That would require one to outlay somewhere between $75 - $100.  You have 5 - 7 plays, therefore.

 

Also, of note is the following:

 

1.  Some sports do not work using the large chalk strategies.  Tennis is a terrible sport to parlay Money Lines.  On the other hand, College Football is great for ML Parlays and Futbol is great.  NFL is great for 10 point teasers, an an occasional ML Parlay.  Lastly, MMA is a money maker when it comes to parlays.  I have only lost 1 time when I took an MMA fighter that was over a -500 ML.

 

2.  Utilize 2nd Half Hedge plays.

This works well for football.  I LOVE taking a 'higher risk' team in the last leg of my ML Parlays.  When I mean, "high risk" I mean a team typically between -250 thru - 300.  The reason is that you can buy yourself out of your bet at the 2nd Half or between quarters.  Think about this for a second. 

 

If you have a ML Parlay of 3 teams, (-800, -600 and - 375) and it comes down to the -375... you essentially have created anearly NO RISK wager.  No risk because you can always buy yourself out of your wager after the game has started.  (Unfortunately, I don't believe you can really do this for soccer matches).  This hedging strategy prevents you from taking massive loss if you wager doesn't look good.  

 

Remember, think of this as a business investment.  You are investing in assets (team's players).  Lay the juice, put the odds on your side.  Don't be greedy.  Earning 30 - 70% on your money is great, remember that.

 

Use your mind and make rational business decisions.

 

Sincerely, 

 

C

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#4
Posted: 12/7/2012 10:45:23 AM
12/7/12 Plays:

I have two today:

Play 1

(ncaa Bball)  UConn:  -600
(Futbol)        FSV Franfurt: PK - 285
MMA           Zach Makovsky:  PK - 400

Risking $30.23 to Win $29.32

Play 2

UConn - 600
Standard Liege - 330
Zach Makovsky - 400

Risking $80.00 to win $72.02
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#5
Posted: 12/7/2012 12:35:36 PM
Franfurt is looking solid so far on the DNB - 285 play.  If this holds, then I'll have two large favorites to close out Play #1.
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#6
Posted: 12/7/2012 3:20:02 PM
C,

Interesting stuff but i'm a bit confused at your wagering amounts on the 2 current plays you have listed.

If your current bankroll is at $10,900 why are you betting to win $29 & $72 bux??? just curious but i like you approach.
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#7
Posted: 12/7/2012 4:33:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rob_3535:

C,

Interesting stuff but i'm a bit confused at your wagering amounts on the 2 current plays you have listed.

If your current bankroll is at $10,900 why are you betting to win $29 & $72 bux??? just curious but i like you approach.

Gentleman,

All soccer plays hit today, 3-0.  Also, all soccer plays were the "weakest link" in my ML parlays.  

MMA and UConn Bball up next.  If UConn looks like they are playing poorly, I will hedge out and buy myself out of the wager at the half.  

In response to the above comment:

I am playing modestly at the moment.  I'm still saving the majority of my roll for the College Bowl season before I dive full-fledged into futbol.

If this wasn't college football season, I would have probably made a wager of $200 - $300 per play.


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#8
Posted: 12/7/2012 5:51:39 PM
Are you doing this with the NBA, NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB also? I would like to follow you. I have a bankroll similiar to what you started with. I would love for that to grow that big
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#9
Posted: 12/11/2012 12:22:39 PM
Today:

Parlay

PSG PK- 260
Lille PK - 310

ROI = over 80%
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#10
Posted: 12/11/2012 3:16:36 PM
PSG was a stress free hit....  now as long ss Lille doesnt lose Im at least at 40% ROI
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#11
Posted: 12/11/2012 4:21:25 PM
Lille up 1-0.  Barring a major collapse, the worst this will do now is give us 40% return.  Of course we want that 80%.
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#12
Posted: 12/11/2012 4:25:12 PM
Consigliere


I want you to be my duce

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#13
Posted: 12/11/2012 4:37:27 PM
You should do this system or style of play with horse racing many more plays throughout the day better odds and a race is over in 2minutes not 2 hours much more money to be made 
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#14
Posted: 12/11/2012 5:17:49 PM
Gentlemen,

Good hit today. Again, it goes to show you that when you employ this strategy, you take out the 50/50 element and put the odds more in your favor.
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Posted: 12/11/2012 6:43:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GambleForProfit:

You should do this system or style of play with horse racing many more plays throughout the day better odds and a race is over in 2minutes not 2 hours much more money to be made 

My Friend,

Thank you for your suggestion.  Unfortunately, I am not familiar with horse racing.  I like to stick to the sports I know well, which are:

FUTBOL
MMA - UFC
NCAA College Football

These are the sports I am most confident about.

However, if you are knowledgeable in horse racing and have some tips, I am always open to making money with you.
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#16
Posted: 12/12/2012 8:31:26 AM
Good morning Gentlemen:

Is anyone aware of what lineup Juventus will field today in Copa Italia?

Their ML at -450 is great parlay material if they take this game seriously and play the regulars.

Also, anyone have any info on Ajaccio vs. Reims?

And why is Lyon not more heavily favored here vs. Nancy?
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#17
Posted: 12/12/2012 8:39:01 AM
Consigliere

Lyon odd is climbing because Gourcuff and Grenier the two "number 10 / creative midfielder" are injured/out. They will have to tweak their organisation. I've had a chat with some Lyon fans and they were worried that they doesn't defend as good with a 4/4/2 organisation as with their usual 4/2/3/1 or 4/3/3

Ajaccio:Reims I'm leaning Reims NTL based on game "quality" but Ajaccio usually knows to take advantage of playing at home so it is a NO BET for me.
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#18
Posted: 12/12/2012 9:10:33 AM
Vicente:

Thank you for your insight, very much appreciated. The Lyon line wasn't making much sense to me and movement has been against Lyon.

My lean was to take Ajaccio on DNB - 305 and parlay them. I am hesitant, however, because these are two mediocre teams.

I'm more inclined to play:

Juventus ML - 450
Barcelona ML - 365

Then I may add in Miami Heat - 410 tonight.
Although I am not as comfortable with basketball, if it comes to the NBA game, one can always hedge out at the 2nd half if Miami is looking like they may lose.
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#19
Posted: 12/12/2012 10:50:35 AM
12/12/2012 Play

Juventus ML
Barcelona ML
NBA - Houston Rockets ML
NBA - Oklahoma City ML

Risking $75.00 to win $50.00

Return on Investment = 68%
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#20
Posted: 12/12/2012 11:20:35 AM
barca, real, athletico 

can't go wrong with 2 of the best teams in the world and one of the hottest club team. 
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#21
Posted: 12/12/2012 11:25:28 AM
REALLY CRAPPY SYSTEM YOU HAVE, I HAVE TRIED THIS IN THE PAST WITH SOME ONE ELSE, GIVES FUK ALL!!!
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#22
Posted: 12/12/2012 11:35:01 AM
I still don't see how making -EV wagers can ever produce a positive result you know those 4 team parlays are suckers bets especially with all the juice your laying Rockets probably won't lose but on a B2B you never know and u got a gift line on Juve or Barca because I keep coming up with about 58-59%  ROI depending on book and the risk depending on how you do your risk calculations and your adversion to risk calculations I come out with a 40% chance your parlay doesn't hit and yes I understand the ROI out weighs the risk so the wager makes sense in that regard but because of the juice your laying and needing 4 teams to complete this wager and the pay off it becomes a negative expected value proposition making your business model flawed just my 2 pennies but hey you got me thinking about this at least and was even considering giving it a go this in no way tries to diminish what your doing it is just my opinion on this style of play
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#23
Posted: 12/12/2012 11:57:51 AM
Had to argue with something that seems to be working for you but I would be very wary of playing NBA heavy favs on ML.  So many nights teams dont show up and shooting is so poor in NBA it is hard to be confident that even big favs with win SU.  Either way BOL.
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#24
Posted: 12/12/2012 12:05:45 PM
I'm a noob at statistics and bankroll management

I just think it's all about chosing the right favs and may be Consigliere is doing it great

He doesn't seem to be playing favs just because they are by the odds so the risk it doesn't hit is only mathematical but sports and thus sport betting isn't only mathematics


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#25
Posted: 12/12/2012 12:07:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by benhogan76:

Had to argue with something that seems to be working for you but I would be very wary of playing NBA heavy favs on ML.  So many nights teams dont show up and shooting is so poor in NBA it is hard to be confident that even big favs with win SU.  Either way BOL.
*had=hard
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