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Author: [Soccer] Topic: EPL & NFL Season 2012-2013
arkadymo send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#51
Posted: 8/27/2012 11:01:23 PM

Blindly betting any angle is never a good strategy. However, this one has been profitable the last few years so why go away from it? I always stay small because I'm skeptical of the knowledge I have for some of these teams but it keeps making me money. Any team that is laying juice tomorrow in the English League Cup (Capitol One), I'll take the dog to win outright in 90 minutes. Bottom line here is the big favs are resting key players as no one really cares about this cup, while the lesser teams would love to beat them (not to mention they're used to playing more games). I only need to hit 2 to turn a small profit.

Swansea v Barnsley to win +779 (0.228% to win 1.772%)

Watford v Bradford to win +528 (0.318% to win 1.672%)

West Ham v Crewe to win +826 (0.216% to win 1.784%)

Yeovil to win +358 v West Brom (0.437% to win 1.563%)

QPR v Walsall to win +884 (0.203% to win 1.797%)

Burnley v Plymouth to win +752 (0.235% to win 1.765%)

Leicester v Burton Albion to win +929 (0.194% to win 1.806%)

Aston Villa v Tranmere to win +569 (0.303% to win 1.697%)

Stoke v Swindon to win +536 (0.314% to win 1.686%)

Sunderland v Morecambe to win +1794 (0.106% to win 1.894%)

Leeds v Oxford to win +558 (0.304% to win 1.696%)

Norwich City v Scunthorpe to win +796 (0.223% to win 1.777%)

Reading v Petersborough to win +662 (0.262% to win 1.738%)

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#52
Posted: 8/27/2012 11:13:20 PM
GL ark, you know i'm doing the same

only thing is though in the 1st round, a lot of matches went to extra time so the shocks that did happen were after penalties and so u wouldnt have cashed.

but youre right, its hard not to see at least 2 of the big boys going out here
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#53
Posted: 8/28/2012 5:31:43 PM

Record: 8-8-1 +0.254%

For record keeping purposes, I counted today's adventure as half a win and half a push. Ultimately, I netted around half a unit so that seems about right; seems silly for me to add 11 losses to the record. Bottom line here is the units W/L are all that matters.

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#54
Posted: 8/30/2012 2:34:29 PM

Swansea v Sunderland +0.5 -131 (1.708% to win 1.292%)

  • Swansea have played great thus far - no doubt about it. But, this will be their best defensive test this season. Although they've scored 8 goals so far, 3 of them have been complete gifts (first goal v QPR, first 2 goals v West Ham). What happens if those goals aren't scored? Are they still able to break the ties? I think we find out this weekend as Sunderland will sit back, defensively sound, and look to counter. 1-1 FT.

Southampton v Manchester United -1 -105 (1.536% to win 1.464%)

  • I faded them last week and will again here. I am just not sold on them. Against City they literally had two scoring opportunities and just so happened to capitalize on both. This past weekend they failed to net against Wigan who honestly completely outplayed them. How will they fair against United? Sure, the Red Devils haven't looked great this year - they lost to an impressive Everton squad and almost gave away a 3-1 advantage against Fulham. But, both games they created plenty of chances and I see no reason why they won't take care of business against this much lesser team. 0-3 FT.

West Ham pk -125 v Fulham (1.112% to win 0.888%)

  • This is more of a gut play. Fulham were dominated for the middle 70+ minutes of the game vs Man U while West Ham literally handed their game away to Swansea. West Ham are strong at home while Fulham are not impressive on the road. Ultimately I see a low scoring match here (with a great chance at a draw) but I just don't see a scenario with Fulham winning. 1-0 FT.

West Brom v Everton pk -135 (1.148% to win 0.852%)

  • Boy does this play feel square or what? I just can't get off of it. Everton have looked awesome this season - dominating Aston Villa and outplaying United. West Brom did well to draw at Spurs and get a deceiving 3-0 win against Liverpool but I don't fancy them here. This is one of the better Everton teams of the last few years and they just always take care of business away from home against the bottom of the table. Draw? Maybe. But when I look at outright wins, like the above play, I just don't see the Baggies taking all 3 points. 1-2 FT.
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#55
Posted: 9/2/2012 1:21:22 PM
Record: 10-9-2 +1.290%

Profitable weekend, can't complain. Sunderland got their draw, Man U got somewhat lucky with a few late goals for my push, West Ham handled Fulham, while Everton took their first loss of the season. Time for an International break - look forward to two weeks from now, already have a few games circled.

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#56
Posted: 9/7/2012 11:50:20 PM

WC week means I have some extra time, which means NFL player props. See you all tomorrow for some light treading in NFL Week 1....

Robert Griffin III Under 4.5 Rushing TDs +115 (1.860% to win 2.140%)

  • I just don't see him running that much this year. He is a primary passer - I envision him more of an Aaron Rodgers type of a runner than a Cam Newton.

Cam Newton Under 4000 Passsing Yards -160 (4.923% to win 3.077%)

  • He had a pretty subpar second half of last season, at least compared to his first eight games. I look for more teams to be prepared for the sophomore.

Percy Harvin Over 900.5 Receving Yards -115 (4.278% to win 3.722%)

  • Christian Ponder loves this guy - just look at his second half stats last seaon. He will clear this number easily.

 

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#57
Posted: 9/9/2012 1:06:19 AM

Chicago Bears v Indianapolis Colts +9.5 -103 (1.015% to win 0.985%)

  • This line is just a tad bit too inflated for me. The Colts had a dismal year last season but they aren't this bad - I think this should be closer to a TD spread.

Tennessee Titans v New England Patriots -4.5 -108 (1.038% to win 0.962%)

  • This has trap written all over it. When it opened at 6.5 I thought it was a pretty fair line but as its dropped I can't stay off of the Pats - it's just too tempting.

Tampa Bay Bucs to win +123 v Carolina Panthers (1.345% to win 1.654%)

  • I'm high on the Bucs this year and low on the Panthers. People figured out Newton last season eventually and the Bucs will bounce back - they shouldn't be dogs at home.

Green Bay Packers -5 -102 v San Fran 49ers (1.010% to win 0.990%)

  • Not too excited about the 9ers this season. They had a lot of things go well for them last season that I don't think will be repeated. The Packers probably won't win 14 games this season but they should be able to handle San Fran in week 1.

For what it's worth, I always stay away from Week 1 bets that align with my Futures bets. Of course I see value in backing the Bills, Vikings, Rams, Falcons, Seahawks, and Steelers but I'm not going to double dip so I'll lay low on those.

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#58
Posted: 9/9/2012 5:53:23 AM
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#59
Posted: 9/9/2012 8:38:25 PM

Record: 12-11-2 +1.884%

Split today but hit my slighter bigger unit play to net a mini profit. Chipping away - any profit is a plus. I doubt I will have anything tomorrow night but I'll be monitoring the lines. They'd need to move a point or two for me to consider any sides...

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#60
Posted: 9/13/2012 6:06:15 PM

Green Bay Packers -4.5 -107 v Chicago Bears (1.034% to win 0.966%)

Don't understand the line movement here at all, but like the Patriots game this past weekend, I have to bite at this number. This line implies that either a) the Bears are better than the 49ers or b) the Packers aren't actually as good as we thought. I don't agree with either statement. The Bears will have a good season but the Packers are clearly the better team here; great bounce back opportunity here. 31-23 FT.

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#61
Posted: 9/14/2012 12:35:23 PM

Record: 13-11-2 +2.850%

Just housekeeping so I don't get too far behind on my record this weekend (GB was a winner last night). I will be finalizing my EPL plays and posting them tonight I hope. NFL will follow on Saturday. A lot of leans in both leagues but I want to be cautious so I'm trying to decided how to attack (especially EPL after the International break). Hope everyone has a good weekend.

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#62
Posted: 9/14/2012 1:51:31 PM
washington -3 an overreaction this week??
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#63
Posted: 9/14/2012 8:13:38 PM
Without a doubt, it's a huge circle for me. Think of it this way, if they were at home they'd be laying nearly double digits. That's ridiculous.
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#64
Posted: 9/14/2012 8:27:47 PM

Not a card I'm particularly thrilled at, hence all 1 unit plays, but this is what I'll be backing. I'm much more focused on the NFL this week but hopefully we can keep being successful in the EPL as well.

QPR v Chelsea to win -120 (1.091% to win 0.909%)

  • This is solely a play on the line. I actually had this game circled to back QPR until I saw the price...wow! Chelsea were -1 -120 against at Wigan opening this season, now they're closer to even money? This line stinks but I see too much value to pass it up. I'm scared this game has draw written all over it. 0-2 FT.

Norwich pk and -0.5 +103 v West Ham (0.985 to win 1.015%)

  • Mostly a gut play here but I think its the right side. West Ham overachieved a bit here and Norwich are very solid at home. Last season they only lost two matches at home to the lesser teams - I just don't see West Ham coming to town and taking the three points. I covered my butt with half on the pk in case of the draw. 2-1 FT.

Fulham v West Brom -120 (1.092% to win 0.908%)

  • I just can't ignore what West Brom have done thus far. Sure, they will regress, but I can't not back them at this price. Fulham scored 5 goals in their opener and have been terrible since. I can't justify them being nearly even money at home against anyone right now, especially not a team that has started the season wonderfully. 1-1 FT.

 

 

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#65
Posted: 9/15/2012 11:33:36 AM
i'll be on stl most likely. 

i can't even begin to understand the new orleans line.

what do you think about this.  i don't get into trying to read what books do because it never works out for me but i've heard people having success when pinnacle does something different on a game.  what do you make of pinnacle holding NE at 1- while other books (like 5dimes) moved it to 14-, at least when i looked yesterday at sbrodds.com?  i would lean to arizona there.
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#66
Posted: 9/15/2012 11:12:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

i'll be on stl most likely. 

i can't even begin to understand the new orleans line.

what do you think about this.  i don't get into trying to read what books do because it never works out for me but i've heard people having success when pinnacle does something different on a game.  what do you make of pinnacle holding NE at 1- while other books (like 5dimes) moved it to 14-, at least when i looked yesterday at sbrodds.com?  i would lean to arizona there.

I don't read into that whatsoever. To me, that means Pinnacle is getting more ARZ money than 5dimes is. Simple as that.

Updated record: 13-13.5-2.5 +0.187%

Frustrating morning - was just way off on my EPL plays. NFL plays coming soon, hoping to bounce back.
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#67
Posted: 9/15/2012 11:48:24 PM
New York Giants v Tampa Bay Bucs +7 -102 (1.010% to win 0.990%)
  • Not impressed with the Giants at all coming into this season and nothing I saw week 1 made me change my mind. The Bucs are nothing flashy but they are the type of team that I see grinding out a lot of close games because of their style - they should cover and give the champs a scare. 20-17 FT.

Buffalo Bills -3 -111 v Kansas City Chiefs (1.052% to win (0.948%)
  • This is one game I won't be watching. To me, the Bills are a better team than the Chiefs and think that of the two scorelines - their week 1 scoreline was more deceiving than the Chiefs. Neither team is special but I'd rather have Fitz / Spiller / Johnson than Cassel / Charles / Bowe, not to mention the huge defensive differences. 27-17 FT.

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 -110 v Baltimore Ravens (1.048% to win 0.952%)
  • This is just a law of averages play - the Ravens aren't as good as they looked and the Eagles aren't as bad as they looked. 

St Louis Rams +3.5 -105 v Washington Redskins (2.049% to win 1.951%)
  • Overreaction line of the week goes to.....RGIII! This line implies that if they played in DC, the skins would be laying between a TD a double digits. What?!?! Just a silly line and the only reason I'm not on the moneyline is because I bleed burgundy and gold. The Rams will compete tomorrow. 17-20 FT.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 -108 v New York Jets (1.558% to win 1.442%)
  • I said above I wasn't THAT impressed with the Jets overall performance so I will gladly fade them. Mix that in with the public seeing the Steelers lose in SNF to the Broncos and you've got yourself a valuable line. These teams are not close to being equal. 31-13 FT.

San Diego Chargers v Tennessee Titans +6.5 -101 (1.005% to win 0.995%)
  • The Chargers lucked out week 1 against the Raiders - take away a few punts mishaps and they might be 0-1. On the flip side, the Titans have potential and I think we see the Chargers get a little exposed here. Upset alert. 21-20 FT.

Carolina Panthers to win +135 v New Orleans Saints (0.851% to win 1.149%)
  • The Saints are not a team I want to back right now. I foresee Cam Newton taking the chains off and ripping apart that secondary. This will be a shootout so I'll gladly take the home team at plus money. 35-31 FT.

San Fran 49ers v Detroit Lions +7 -115 (1.070% to win 0.930%)
  • Too many points here. The Niners are the better team but I can't lay a TD with them. Stafford struggled at home but I think he can rebound, even against a great defense here. Huge letdown spot too. 24-20 FT.
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#68
Posted: 9/16/2012 7:47:33 PM
pinnacle was doing something strange with that arizona line.  i was on the right side of that one but i don't pretend to know how to rad stuff like that.

wrong team favored in st. louis today though. 

nice call on carolina.  i had had no clue on that one. 

nice job today. 
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#69
Posted: 9/16/2012 7:47:40 PM
pinnacle was doing something strange with that arizona line.  i was on the right side of that one but i don't pretend to know how to rad stuff like that.

wrong team favored in st. louis today though. 

nice call on carolina.  i had had no clue on that one. 

nice job today. 
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#70
Posted: 9/17/2012 12:26:34 PM

Record: 18-16.5-3.5 +2.538%

Atlanta Falcons -3 -108 v Denver Broncos (1.038% to win 0.962%)

  • I'm still not convinced with the Broncos. They are a good team but I think the Falcons will rip apart their defense. We will see.
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#71
Posted: 9/19/2012 12:43:05 PM

Record:19-16.5-3.5 +3.500%

Still looking at and analyzing lines but here are a few thoughts going into the week:

NFL:

  • SF laying a TD on the road is a little crazy to me, but I'm scared I'm 0-2 betting against them this year already
  • I want to back SD but did not expect to have to lay more than a FG
  • DEN, OAK, MIA, and CLE are all very live home dogs

EPL:

  • West Brom & Ham are surprisingly short for me considering their opponents
  • This is a great spot for Southampton to finally get a win
  • No idea what to make of City v Arsenal and Liverpool v United
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#72
Posted: 9/19/2012 1:29:36 PM

Great call on the Falcons game!

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#73
Posted: 9/20/2012 6:20:58 PM
NYG +135 (.851 to win 1.149)

First mobile post! Overreaction to injuries in the line - great price on the better team.
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#74
Posted: 9/21/2012 9:42:44 AM

Record: 20-16.5-3.5 +4.648%

No time for writeups right now but here are my EPL plays. Not backing any 'good' teams but they are all priced right for me.

Southampton pk and -0.5 +109 v Aston Villa (1.435% to win 1.565%)

West Brom v Reading +0.5 +111 (0.948% to win 1.052%)

West Ham v Sunderland pk and +0.5 +103 (0.985% to win 1.015%)

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#75
Posted: 9/22/2012 10:03:09 AM
Liverpool Pk -106 (1.029 to win 0.971)

Liverpool are actually undervalued right now - they've played better than their table position. Mix in their good results at home against the big boys and I'm all over the Reds.

Been killed by line movement this morning but decided not to add anything. I will post NFL tmrw morning.
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