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Author: [Soccer] Topic: Iains Olympics 2012 soccer thread with full write up and tips.
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#1
Posted: 7/16/2012 8:36:21 PM
Hi everyone 

Olympics mens Soccer kicks off in 9 days , decided to do my write up early for groups and futures , i will be adding my daily tips to this thread when the Olympics kicks off , Lets hope it can be another profitable few weeks as it was during Euro 2012.


Lets start off with the groups , I have included the price to win the group , the price to qualify has not been released as far as i can see , i will update it when it comes out.
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#2
Posted: 7/16/2012 8:36:35 PM
Group A (Price to win group)

Great Britain u23 - +110 
Uruguay u23 - +110
UAE u23 +2500
Senegal u23 +900


For me group A is the toughest to pick a winner and the outright prices show that, with both GB and Uruguay priced the same, Both these teams will qualify, i am 100% sure of that , If we have to break down the teams i would have to say i see the advantage in attack going to Uruguay , Suarez and Cavani are 2 amazing strikers and both have been in amazing form for their top European clubs , they will cause teams a huge amount of problems . The Midfield battle goes to Great Britain , Giggs , Ramsey and Sinclair are all key figures at their clubs and everyone of them can be a game winner , they will create a bunch of chances for the attackers and also give GB speed down the wings , Defensively i see these 2 teams being pretty much equal , both have a young defense , i give the advantage to GB just slightly because of Mica Richards , The Man City defender has experience on the big stage and that will be key.

Lets also not forget that Great Britain will have home advantage .

Winner : Great Britain 
Second: Uruguay

Its a very very close call so i would not bet to much either way. 


Group B

Switzerland u23 +110
Mexico u23 + 160
South Korea u23 +550
Gabon u23 +800

The Bookies have Switzerland as favorite here and i am not really sure why , I do think group B will be another 2 horse race , I see Mexico and Switzerland qualifying , Whilst S Korea are an outside chance i really cant see them causing an upset .

The reason i cant see why Switzerland are favorites to win the group is simply because of the teams , when you compare the teams i see Mexico having a far more solid team , Switzerland have a better Midfield pairing of Frei and Behrami , Behrami has the quality and experience and i have watched Frei play a few times and the guy is fantastic , i really cant understand how he is not playing for a top European club .

I give the attacking and defensive edge to Mexico though , in attack they have Dos Santos who plays for Tottenham and used to play for Barcelona , and Peralta who is one of there 3 overage picks and who has scored 28 goals for his club side this season ,Both players will have the big match temperament which will be key , Defensively Mexico look a lot more experienced and solid , they have chosen 2 of there 3 overage players at the back and this will give them stability and a slight edge in defense .

I think Mexico at +160 is great value to win the group.

Winner : Mexico
Second: Switzerland

Group C

Brazil u23, -600
Egypt u23 +1000
Belarus u23 +1000
New Zealand +1400


Well this is going to be short and sweet , Brazil have already won this group , and yes i know , "Lock" is a terrible word on covers , but if there ever was a lock it is that Brazil will win this group .There team is ridiculously talented , players like - Neymar ,Hulk ,Pato,Oscar ,Marcelo ,Silva , Ganso  , this team is beyond good .The price is better than it should be but still not worth taking on its own , adding it to a parlay would be the best bet.

To pick second place is really tough i think any of the 3 remaining teams can take it , i will wait to see what the price is for them to qualify before i make a pick.

Winner :Brazil
Second :TBA

Group D

Spain u23 , -400
Japan u23 +600
Morocco u23 +900
Honduras u23 +1600


Group D for me is another group that has already been won , Spain should sail through this group easily and again the price reflects that , Spain also have a team of current and future superstars , players like Tello , Mata , Alba ,Alcantara , Cuenca , to name a few. Most of there players already play for top Spanish and European sides and feature in the first team , So they will have the experience and the temperament and this is key especially for younger players . Again i would look to take Spain as part of a parlay as the price alone is not great .


For second place in this group i would have to pick Japan , whilst i admit i dont really know much about the players in the 3 remaining teams i do know how far Japan has come in Football over the last 10 years , their J league has become Asia's top football league and they are becoming more and more of a world force in football all the time , I think they will show that this Olympics and might even cause an upset in the knockouts .

Winner : Spain 
Second: Japan


Run out of space so will finish the post on a new page , please wait till i have finished before posting 
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#3
Posted: 7/16/2012 9:15:27 PM
Pretty sure Richards is out for GB!
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#4
Posted: 7/16/2012 9:19:49 PM
Outright winner :

When i looked into this market i found myself not looking for a reason to bet on a team to win but for a reason why Brazil should not win and honestly i cant find one .

From the teams i have picked to qualify i think there are 4 teams with a realistic chance of winning.

Great Britain u23
Spain u23
Uruguay u23
Brazil u23


Great Britain u23:

They are host nation which goes a long way but nowhere near enough to win you a Gold at the Olympics , GB are outclassed by the other teams in this contest and like England did at the Euro 2012 , they will have a good run in the group and then fail when they meet a true challenge .

 Great Britain lose to Brazil in Semi finals

Spain u23:

Spain have proved to be the force in world football over the past 6 years and it looks to continue when you look at their current Olympic u23 team , As i mentioned before they have current and future superstars and will be a force at the Olympics , the only reason i cant see them winning is because there is just a slight edge in experience when it comes to Brazil . 

Spain lose to Brazil in final 


Uruguay u23

Uruguay will definitely not be a walk over for any team , i have read a few reviews that have them winning the Olympics and while they have amazing key players in Saurez and Cavani i just dont think they have enough quality and experience in the rest of the team to overcome teams like Spain or Brazil.

Uruguay lose to Spain in Semi finals.


Brazil u23:

So on to Brazil ,i said it earlier and i will say it again , this team is RIDICULOUS , from back to front they are full of amazing talent, lets look at there key players.


Defense :

Thiago Silva - I would rate him the best defender in the world at the moment , he has just been sold for 42 million euros to PSG, they paid that much for a reason 

Marcelo - Is a consistent starter for Real Madrid - enough said

Rafael - Manchester United defender at the age of 22 


Midfield:

Ganso - Pretty much every high profile club on the planet is trying to sign him from Santos

Oscar - As with Ganso a sought after player by top European clubs 

Attack:

Hulk - Porto striker who scores goals for fun , he is one of Brazil's overage picks and for good reason

Neymar - A teammate and good friend of Ganso at Santos , Neymar is considered by some , Including Pele , to be the best player in the world .

Pato - Another incredible player , has suffered with injury this year but it back to match fitness and will be looking to prove himself during the Olympics.


An extensive breakdown i know , as i said i just cant see a reason why Brazil will not win this , they have amazing quality in every position and i see there young stars showing off here , the fact that pretty much there whole team plays consistently for top clubs is also another huge factor , the players will be match fit and also not overwhelmed by the experience .

Brazil beat Spain in the Final 3-2

Brazil to win +185



I will add more picks as we near the start , i hope this helps and please leave comments and views

Good luck 




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#5
Posted: 7/16/2012 9:21:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by diptom:

Pretty sure Richards is out for GB!

Shows him as healthy and in for the Olympics on Soccerway , will look into it more .
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#6
Posted: 7/16/2012 9:26:44 PM
Well i just read an article saying Micah Richards has no regrets on giving up on playing in the Euro 2012 so he could play for GB in the Olympics , im 99.9% sure hes in .
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#7
Posted: 7/16/2012 9:44:03 PM
thanks for the write up 

but, how did so many small, bad footballing nations like Gabon and UAE make it into this tournament.
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#8
Posted: 7/16/2012 10:00:21 PM
Its because of the weak qualifying they go though .
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#9
Posted: 7/16/2012 11:39:36 PM
Thx lainsc I haven't done any homework for the Olympics yet and thx for all the information here.
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#10
Posted: 7/17/2012 12:51:43 AM
nice write ups Ian and yes hard to see Brazil or spain not winning
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#11
Posted: 7/17/2012 8:59:00 AM
dang la!!!!!!

GREAT WRITE UPS.....I do believe it can help a miserable soccer capper as myself, nd my (rumored only) lovechild bake!!!

SERIIOUSLY ... I WISH YOU NOTHING BUT WINS FOIR THESE OLYMPICS!
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#12
Posted: 7/17/2012 11:50:44 AM
Gunneral 
happyshine
mr bollox
Billy 
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#13
Posted: 7/19/2012 4:59:23 PM
Hi all 

As i mentioned i would update my Olympics men soccer thread as new marker become available , I have been looking into the top scorer market and have a few views on that .


Firstly when i look at the groups i believe that Brazil have the easiest group by far , and i think we might see them put 4 or five past one or even 2 of the teams in their group , Spain also have a reasonably easy group when you take into account how talented there team are .

I feel the top scorer of the contest will come from one of these 2 teams . Lets look at the pricing and see if we can find value:

I will look at all the players under +1600 for now .

Luis Suarez (Uruguay u23) + 550
Junior Neymar (Brazil u23) +600
Lopez Adrian (Spain u23) +700
Edison Cavani (Uruguay u23) +800
Givaldinho Hulk (Brazil u23)+800
Alexandre Pato( Brazil u23) +1200
Cristian Tello ( Spain u23) +1600

These prices and more were taken from bet 365.

As we can see all the favored players come from 3 Nations , the closest player outside of these 3 is Daniel Sturridge at +2500 , and i think rightly so .

I wont go into details on each of these player just the ones i think have value for me, 3 players stand out , Neymar , Cavani and Tello

Neymar will feature in every game for Brazil that is a certainty unless he gets injured and while he is a great play maker he is also a fantastic goalscorer , i also like Brazil to go all the way and that helps in the goalscorer market , this kid is magical and unless Brazil set up there team with him playing as a Central attacking Midfielder i see this as the stand out bet.

Cavani for Uruguay is also someone worth looking into , i pick him over Suarez simply because of price ,while Suarez is slightly better he also has a much bigger temper and that could lead to suspension if he picks up to many cards , Cavani is also someone who given the chance will find the back of the net more times than not , for the better price its a gimme .

Lastly Tello for Spain , I just think at +1600 he is worth a bet , he is not the favorite to be Spains top scorer as that goes to the more experienced Adrian at +700 . The reason i like Tello is because he will get minutes in games and he has played for Barcelona first team last season and scored , he can definitely score goals and if he gets off to a good start in the group stages we might see him become Spains first choice upfront.


If you are looking for 2 real outside shots for a gamble 

Jaun Mata of Spain and Giovani Dos Santos of Mexico are 2 longs shots that could take it under the right circumstances , both are priced at +4000


As always comments and questions welcome .


Have a good one .



 


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#14
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:57:46 PM
Excellent write up much appreciate the work you put into this!
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#15
Posted: 7/19/2012 8:39:50 PM
Thanks txtech 
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#16
Posted: 7/21/2012 10:44:37 AM
fantastic write up. well done. will def use this info. thx, gd lk. 
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#17
Posted: 7/21/2012 12:28:13 PM
Thx BIG 

For anyone who didnt watch The GB vs Brazil warm up game yesterday it ended 2-0 to Brazil and it could have been 10-0 , also Neymar scored.
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#18
Posted: 7/22/2012 12:46:20 AM
Great work!!!!!!
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#19
Posted: 7/22/2012 3:54:12 AM
Thanks for the write-up!
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#20
Posted: 7/23/2012 2:33:06 AM
Thanks 

utfootball4 
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#21
Posted: 7/23/2012 2:55:23 AM
Just to clarify what i have already bet :

I have:

5 Units on GB to win the Group @ +110

8 units on mexico to win the Group @ +160

50 units on Brazil to win Outright @ +185 (Its my biggest bet since the Superbowl, i said whatever profit i made on the euros i will put on Brazil outright , i feel so strongly they will win)

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#22
Posted: 7/23/2012 3:31:09 AM
My picks for 26/072012


Top Picks

Uruguay vs UAE : 

Uruguay -1.5 Asian handicap @ -130 (Stake 10/10) - POD

I dont want to offend anyone by saying this but i think that the UAE are going to be thrashed in these Olympics all 3 games they play ,  i think with the attacking style and players Uruguay have upfront we can easily see them scoring a bunch in this game , even though its the first game of the Olympics i am still confident Uruguay dominate 

Great Britain vs Senegal :

Great Britain ML @ - 140 (Stake 8/10)

I dont think Senegal are a team to be underestimated but i cant see them causing an upset here , the players on the Great Britain side far outclass the Senegalese squad , and i think with the leadership of Giggs and being the host nation, they will get off to a good start with a win here.

Brazil vs Egypt:

Brazil -1.5,-2 Asian Handicap ( Stake 8/10)

Brazil just beat Great Britain in a friendly 2-0 a couple days ago and they looked amazing , i can see them making short work of Egypt here , and i think we could see Brazil scoring 3 or 4 in this game, the fact they kept GB to a clean sheet the other night is also a positive as they are a better team than Egypt.


Average picks:


Mexico vs South Korea:

Mexico Ml @ +110 (Stake 3/10)

Not going to put much on this , think Mexico Should edge it and the price is alright .

Switzerland vs Gabon:

Switzerland Ml @ - 130 (Stake2/10) 

Switzerland have a better team with more experience and thats why they are priced this low for the opening game , because it is the opener and i really dont love the bet i will keep it small.


Stay away !!!  


Honduras vs Morocco 

This game is a pick em when it comes to the 1 x 2 market ,the only thing i thought would make sense was under 2.5 goals and when i checked the price it is -200 , so no chance i am taking that , its not a game to bet unless you are betting with the heart and that never usually works out well either .

Belarus vs New Zealand 

My reasoning is exactly the same as the game above , no value here

Spain vs Japan 

Spain at -300 to win the game is the right price , but honestly i could never bring myself to take it on its own , it is the first game of the Olympics and while Spain is a better team, Japan will play 150% and i think they will score a goal , this is also the same reason i am not betting Spain on the Asian Handicap.


Best of luck everyone.







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#23
Posted: 7/25/2012 7:07:29 AM
Just found another Future , Origin of winner .

South america @ -110
Europe @ +115
Africa @ +1400
North and central America @ +1400
Asia @ +2500
Oceania @ +20 000


So you basically betting , Brazil and Uruguay , vs Spain and Great Britain.



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#24
Posted: 7/25/2012 7:10:07 AM
I am also going to bet name the finalists :

Spain vs Brazil Final @ +350 (5 units)

They will both win there groups and therefore they either get knocked out before the final or they face each other in the final , i cant see anyone knocking either of these 2 teams out , it seems a decent price.
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#25
Posted: 7/25/2012 9:49:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Iainsc2:

I am also going to bet name the finalists :

Spain vs Brazil Final @ +350 (5 units)


 Definitely an awesome line 
 
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