Euro 2012....

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Author: [Soccer] Topic: Euro 2012....
jp548 PM jp548
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Posted: 6/1/2012 1:01:33 AM
The rest of the first round match analysis would be great.  Thanks Van
jp548 PM jp548
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Posted: 6/1/2012 1:12:48 AM

Keep Posting Van.  Excelleny Analysis

ZonaCats PM ZonaCats
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Posted: 6/1/2012 1:25:19 AM
Host countries almost always advance to the knockout stage (i.e. Poland + Ukraine)
bakemcbride PM bakemcbride
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Posted: 6/1/2012 4:20:06 AM
Great insight van....keep it comin, and best of luck!
Livan33 PM Livan33
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Posted: 6/1/2012 10:41:36 AM
Great thread Van!

A couple of questions....what book would you recommend for your futures? Pinny doesn't seem to have any of them up yet. 5D has most of them but seems to be missing England under 5.5 points and England not to win the group.

Also, is 3 units likely to be your largest bet of the tournament? I'm trying to scale my bets accordingly.

Thanks and good luck!
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vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 6/1/2012 10:51:47 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Livan33:

Great thread Van!

A couple of questions....what book would you recommend for your futures? Pinny doesn't seem to have any of them up yet. 5D has most of them but seems to be missing England under 5.5 points and England not to win the group.

Also, is 3 units likely to be your largest bet of the tournament? I'm trying to scale my bets accordingly.

Thanks and good luck!

Pinny has them all up.  Take a look under "Euro 2012 Futures".  All there and more...

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 6/1/2012 10:52:46 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Livan33:

Great thread Van!

A couple of questions....what book would you recommend for your futures? Pinny doesn't seem to have any of them up yet. 5D has most of them but seems to be missing England under 5.5 points and England not to win the group.

Also, is 3 units likely to be your largest bet of the tournament? I'm trying to scale my bets accordingly.

Thanks and good luck!

Usually 5 would be my largest.  I have 5 on France vs England in the opening game of Group D.

Game bets usually range between 1 and 5 units.

Livan33 PM Livan33
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Posted: 6/1/2012 10:57:42 AM
Thanks a lot! Just noticed the 5 unit bet. Not sure how I missed them on pinny.

Appreciate the quick reply. Great to see you back posting soccer!!
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Livan33 PM Livan33
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Posted: 6/1/2012 12:01:59 PM
I wasn't losing my mind. I wrote customer service and they said the futures lines were under review and would be available again later today or tomorrow.
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vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 6/1/2012 4:55:22 PM

Just watched Ukraine / Austria and Italy / Russia.

Russia might just make a run in this tournament....

Professional1 PM Professional1
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Posted: 6/1/2012 5:14:24 PM
hey captain, germany -107 vs portugal seems too easy. what do you think?
hen7 PM hen7
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Posted: 6/1/2012 5:16:31 PM
Van youre the F***in man ......good luck
Professional1 PM Professional1
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Posted: 6/1/2012 5:20:07 PM
thoughts on wc qualies tomorrow?

World Cup Qualifying South-America

 151 Venezuela (WC-Qual) +1044      
 152 Uruguay (WC-Qual)  -325      
 +432    
 154 Chile (WC-Qual) pk -128+151      
 155 Bolivia (WC-Qual) pk +113 +192      
 +235    
 157 Ecuador (WC-Qual) +1348      
 158 Argentina (WC-Qual)  -427      
 +485  

Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 6/1/2012 5:42:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Pinny has them all up.  Take a look under "Euro 2012 Futures".  All there and more...



No, they don't have outright futures for all the teams.
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 6/1/2012 5:43:13 PM
Pinnacle had Poland 5.5 o/u points in group.


vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 6/1/2012 5:51:50 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Professional1:

hey captain, germany -107 vs portugal seems too easy. what do you think?

First game for both, otherwise I would say yes.  In form, Germany is better than a half goal better than Portugal - but this game has me nervous.....

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 6/1/2012 5:54:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Professional1:

thoughts on wc qualies tomorrow?

World Cup Qualifying South-America

  151 Venezuela (WC-Qual) +1044         
  152 Uruguay (WC-Qual)   -325         
  +432       
  154 Chile (WC-Qual) pk -128 +151         
  155 Bolivia (WC-Qual) pk +113  +192         
  +235       
  157 Ecuador (WC-Qual) +1348         
  158 Argentina (WC-Qual)   -427         
  +485   


I would lean to all 3 dogs on the asian.

Vene +1.5
Bolivia PK +115
Equador +2

Professional1 PM Professional1
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Posted: 6/1/2012 6:08:07 PM
ok thanks Van!
steinmans80 PM steinmans80
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Posted: 6/1/2012 6:24:06 PM

Thanks for all the info Van!!!

Any insight on who you think will be the top goal scorer?

And do you think Benzema has a chance?

hugh613 PM hugh613
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Posted: 6/1/2012 7:43:29 PM
Tell me I'm reading too much into this...

Netherlands / Denmark: Over 2½ +106, Under 2½ -118
Netherlands Team Total:
Over 1½ -123, Under 1½ +109
Denmark Team Total:
Over ½ -133, Under ½ +118

I'm only asking because I've found team totals to be a relatively effective way of capping game totals whenever there's a major discrepancy in the line like this, and you're obviously more versed in "hidden messages" from the linesmakers than most of us...
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 6/1/2012 8:37:37 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hugh613:

Tell me I'm reading too much into this...

Netherlands / Denmark: Over 2½ +106, Under 2½ -118
Netherlands Team Total:
Over 1½ -123, Under 1½ +109
Denmark Team Total:
Over ½ -133, Under ½ +118

I'm only asking because I've found team totals to be a relatively effective way of capping game totals whenever there's a major discrepancy in the line like this, and you're obviously more versed in "hidden messages" from the linesmakers than most of us...

Before I get off on a tangent in the wrong direction with math - tell me specifically what you are thinking......  

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 6/1/2012 8:38:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steinmans80:

Thanks for all the info Van!!!

Any insight on who you think will be the top goal scorer?

And do you think Benzema has a chance?

Whoever will play in the most games is where I would start.  Benzema have a chance?  Sure.  About the same as anyone up there I guess.

hugh613 PM hugh613
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Posted: 6/1/2012 10:17:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Before I get off on a tangent in the wrong direction with math - tell me specifically what you are thinking......  

I just meant it's odd to see the game total juiced under, yet have both team totals suggest the game is going over (obviously, that's not the way it typically is).

So I guess my question is: do you think the linesmakers sometimes inadvertently tip their hands, or am I seeing something that isn't really there?


arkadymo PM arkadymo
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Posted: 6/1/2012 10:22:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hugh613:

I just meant it's odd to see the game total juiced under, yet have both team totals suggest the game is going over (obviously, that's not the way it typically is).

So I guess my question is: do you think the linesmakers sometimes inadvertently tip their hands, or am I seeing something that isn't really there?



Not tipping their hand at all; do the math.  

Let's say that (for simplicity) each line is at -120 ish, implying that there is around a 55% chance of that bet being a winner.  Thus, the Expected Value of both the Netherlands total goals and Denmark's total goals are going to be just slightly over 1.5 (maybe 1.65) and 0.5 (0.65) respectively.  Adding them together, you would still get a total Expected Value for the game below 2.5 (2.30).  You could do the actual math if you wanted but I think the point is illustrated just fine with estimated numbers.  You can't just say that Over 0.5 Denmark goals is juiced -133 therefore the books expect them to score.
hugh613 PM hugh613
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Posted: 6/1/2012 10:25:37 PM
Fair enough.


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