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Author: [General Discussion] Topic: I don't know why gamblers complain about paying excessive juice
I-Got-5-On-It send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: PaddyPower.com |
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#1
Posted: 9/24/2012 4:17:16 PM
......   it's the cost of doing business

Thought for the day  
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#2
Posted: 9/24/2012 5:20:01 PM
Yup.  I'd sure rather play +3 -120 than +2.5 at -110. Extra juice has been very good to me this football season. 
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#3
Posted: 9/24/2012 8:59:25 PM
Please define "excessive juice", and who's complaining about it?

I personally think -110 for standard juice on a side or total is a little ridiculous, but I also never hear anyone complaining.  If I ran a book, it would be -105.  Customers would flock to us, and we would clean up.
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#4
Posted: 9/24/2012 9:07:27 PM

Why pay any more juice than you must?  Hundreds of wagers over the course of a season and that extra juice separates the winners from the losers.  You want to be a winner?  It starts with shopping for the best price.
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#5
Posted: 9/24/2012 11:20:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:


Why pay any more juice than you must?  Hundreds of wagers over the course of a season and that extra juice separates the winners from the losers.  You want to be a winner?  It starts with shopping for the best price.

yup. huge difference in the long run. The simple math involved should make it a non discussion.  
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#6
Posted: 9/25/2012 1:53:52 PM
 Gotta love those that "always buy the hook"...........you know right then that they're in the process of, or have already accomplished, losing their roll.
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#7
Posted: 9/25/2012 4:35:40 PM
Doesn't mattern to me with juice,just want the winner.
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#8
Posted: 9/26/2012 4:56:04 AM
 Based on this complete lack of logic, one should BEG their sportsbook to charge them 20% juice on every game instead of the already high 10%, regardless which side or total you are betting on. 
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#9
Posted: 9/26/2012 4:58:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The8ofCups:

Please define "excessive juice", and who's complaining about it?

I personally think -110 for standard juice on a side or total is a little ridiculous, but I also never hear anyone complaining.  If I ran a book, it would be -105.  Customers would flock to us, and we would clean up.

You would still clean up with the regular ignorant bettors that flood the market, but if you accepted sharper players, they would eat into your profits.
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#10
Posted: 9/26/2012 5:06:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jsab:

Doesn't mattern to me with juice,just want the winner.

You are cutting into your profits every time you WIN with higher juice.  If you lay $120 for $100 (-120) at one book, when instead, you could have gotten it at $120 for $109 (-110) at another book, you are already cutting into your profits, and cheated yourself out of an extra $9 by just shopping around.  And over time, the numbers really add up in the amount of money you are throwing away.  

That being said, I will regularly pay -120 on a wager if that is all they are offering on the side or total I like.  But will always bet with another book if I can get the same wager at cheaper juice. 

  
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#11
Posted: 9/26/2012 10:33:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:


Why pay any more juice than you must?  Hundreds of wagers over the course of a season and that extra juice separates the winners from the losers.  You want to be a winner?  It starts with shopping for the best price.


Bingo.


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#12
Posted: 9/26/2012 10:34:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jsab:

Doesn't mattern to me with juice,just want the winner.


Non-Bingo.
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#13
Posted: 9/26/2012 11:27:48 AM
I think the last year I was with Matchbook, I paid an average of -104 on CFB - perhaps non-coincidentaly the best year I ever had, at least in terms of pure dollars. 
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#14
Posted: 9/26/2012 3:37:00 PM
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#15
Posted: 9/26/2012 4:42:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:



Non-Bingo.


  

haha I knew this thread would catch your eye


what I mean I mean by excessive juice is the likes of 40 cent lines on prop markets like team totals, player props or other bets that you like to make but which most books don't offer so the ones that do can really charge what they like
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#16
Posted: 9/26/2012 4:44:27 PM
also you got to think of sportsbook reputation,service and also being able to access reputable offshore books in the first place esp in the US
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#17
Posted: 9/26/2012 5:09:21 PM
imo juice doesn't matter. you're gambling.

you're either gonna win or lose that extra juice $$$ 

so what is really $10 more or $20 u could've made from a $100 wager.

its not like people on here are wagering 10k where juice would come into play.

realistically shopping for lines is a joke unless there is a big difference.  in the spread.  
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#18
Posted: 9/26/2012 6:16:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pinoy1da:

imo juice doesn't matter. you're gambling.

you're either gonna win or lose that extra juice $$$ 

so what is really $10 more or $20 u could've made from a $100 wager.

its not like people on here are wagering 10k where juice would come into play.

realistically shopping for lines is a joke unless there is a big difference.  in the spread.  

Why don't you just pay 20% sales tax?  It is not like you are spending 10K at the grocery store or restaurant where the additional tax would come into play. 

No wonder so many gamblers have NO clue.   
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#19
Posted: 9/26/2012 6:21:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by I-Got-5-On-It:



  

haha I knew this thread would catch your eye


what I mean I mean by excessive juice is the likes of 40 cent lines on prop markets like team totals, player props or other bets that you like to make but which most books don't offer so the ones that do can really charge what they like

Prop bets are highway robbery.  Eg.: -300/+220 is criminal.  At least give back 260 in this example to make it fair.  
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#20
Posted: 9/26/2012 8:04:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by I-Got-5-On-It:



  

haha I knew this thread would catch your eye


what I mean I mean by excessive juice is the likes of 40 cent lines on prop markets like team totals, player props or other bets that you like to make but which most books don't offer so the ones that do can really charge what they like


The definition of juice (as it is used) is not the amount you pay related to zero.  It is the amount you pay related to the fair midpoint of a wager.

That is an important differentiation.

Which line has more juice?
A:  Balt -104 vs Sea -104
B:  Tex -185 vs KC +180

Some say if you bet TX you are paying more juice.  You arent.  You are paying more on Balt even at -104 because it is farther away from the midpoint of a wager.

So to me - it is simply paying the lowest RELATIVE price you can for a wager.  it is not saying you wont buy a half point because you pay 10 cents more.  With the half point, you might get lower juice or better relative odds.

This kind of stuff is excessively important if you want to be a profitable gambler.  If you are picking winners at any cost - you are surely a lifetime loser in terms of money.  And thats OK - but lets not kid ourselves - if you are picking winners at any cost your primary objective is not profitability.

If you are not squeezing every penny out of lines, you are either winning too little or losing too much.


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#21
Posted: 9/26/2012 8:06:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pinoy1da:

imo juice doesn't matter. you're gambling.

you're either gonna win or lose that extra juice $$$ 

so what is really $10 more or $20 u could've made from a $100 wager.

its not like people on here are wagering 10k where juice would come into play.

realistically shopping for lines is a joke unless there is a big difference.  in the spread.  


This is the definition of a recreational gambler.  The amounts he uses in his examples are irrelevant.  Whether it is 10 bucks or 10K bucks, juice is a percentage.

That is not an insult.  But this is the thinking of someone who has accepted that they will never make a profit betting sports, but is OK with that and accepts it as entertainment.
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#22
Posted: 9/26/2012 8:12:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wizardofroz:


Prop bets are highway robbery.  Eg.: -300/+220 is criminal.  At least give back 260 in this example to make it fair.  


This is an interesting topic....

Just a side note before I start....  -260 is not the midpoint between -300 and +220.  It looks like it is, but the true midpoint is closer to -280.

But back to props with big spreads in the prices....

Sometimes you can determine that a prop has a true value of -500, and even though the line is -300 / +220, you can get a -500 bet at -300.  Yes, you might be betting in to a market that in theory has a high house hold - but that house hold is only high if the line is actually true!  If the line is off, the house hold is minimized or even becomes negative EV.

So dont disregard a market simply because you see a big spread.  I generally disregard markets on widely bet sports with mature lines (you arent going to beat a MLB 20 cent line longterm), but you can pick your spots on lesser known wide spread markets.

GL


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#23
Posted: 9/27/2012 4:37:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:



This is an interesting topic....

Just a side note before I start....  -260 is not the midpoint between -300 and +220.  It looks like it is, but the true midpoint is closer to -280.

But back to props with big spreads in the prices....

Sometimes you can determine that a prop has a true value of -500, and even though the line is -300 / +220, you can get a -500 bet at -300.  Yes, you might be betting in to a market that in theory has a high house hold - but that house hold is only high if the line is actually true!  If the line is off, the house hold is minimized or even becomes negative EV.

So dont disregard a market simply because you see a big spread.  I generally disregard markets on widely bet sports with mature lines (you arent going to beat a MLB 20 cent line longterm), but you can pick your spots on lesser known wide spread markets.

GL




Van, can you explain how the midpoint is closer to -280 as opposed to -260?

thank you sir
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#24
Posted: 9/27/2012 5:17:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kingpincarbs:



Van, can you explain how the midpoint is closer to -280 as opposed to -260?

thank you sir


go to betfair and put some bet @-300 and see what pops out on the other side of the bet...you get +300. Then lower these odds abit ( maybe 5% or ex. +290 ) and you get a fair line for the dog, a line that is juiced abit. Everything lower than 290 is a robbery.


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#25
Posted: 9/27/2012 5:39:59 PM

Van--In another thread you wrote:

But one thing is for certain - I never pay -110.

Besides taking advantage of reduced juice at various sites, could you please explain what you meant by this statement. How else do you reduce from-110? Any feedback would be much appreciated.

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