Il start with an undervalued team, NC State.
NCST is extremely undervalued at this point, but they have an extremely hard schedule. If the Wolfpack played in the Big 12, it wouldnt be crazy to see them in the CFB playoffs... They did finish 7-6 last year, but they're a much better team than that.
Of their losses they lost AT ECU 30-33
Lost to Clemson 24-17 in OT
Lost to Florida State 20-24
Lost to BC 14-21
Lost to Miami 13-27
and were annihilated @ Louisville 13-54
There are a couple of bad losses there, but when you look closer, they outplayed ECU and should have won that game. They outgained ECU 504-450 yards... Unfortunately, they made a number of mistakes, like 2 missed FG's, a failed 2 pt conversion, a Fake FG iniside the 10 yard line, a 25 yard TD called back bc of penalty, and a late hit that extended an ECU TD drive. On NC State's final drive they drove the ball to the 23 yard line, and tried to rush the kicker on the field for a game tying attempt, but the clock ran out. (Fluke Loss)
Their game vs national champions Clemson, should have been won by NC State in regulation, but the Wolfpack Kicker missed 3 FG's during regulation, including a 33 yard fg, 37 yard fg, and 42 yard attempt. The NCST offense, had 3rd and 1 at the 9 yard line, and turned the ball over on downs, bc they couldnt convert. They also allowed Clemson to complete 3/4 4th down attempts. During Overtime, Clemson went for a 4th and 2 and converted, the next play they fumbled and NCST somehow missed it, giving Clemson one more shot, when they scored a TD. (Fluke loss)
The 21-14 Loss to Boston College was another ugly one, NC ST was winning until 4:43 left when BC scored a TD and 2pt conversion, NC State had the ball 1st and goal at the 3 yard line before Finley threw an Int in the endzone for the game... (3rd loss on final possession)
NCST vs Florida State Lost 24-20... This was another game that NCST should have won, the Wolfpack outgained FSU 470-393, they also missed another FG, and threw another INT in the redzone... Regardless of that, NCST was up 20-17 with 3 1/2 mins left in the game, when NCST DB jumped a route, and dropped the game winning INT. On the next play FSU scored a TD putting them up 24-20.. With 3 minutes left, NC State drove the ball the length of the field, but bc of the red zone turnovers, and missed FG, they needed a TD, and they finished another drive in the redzone, that was turned over on downs...
NCST vs Miami: Lost 27-13, which seems like a blowout, but in reality, this was a 3-3 game at halftime. The real difference in this game was NCST 2 Turnovers, to Miami's 0... Miami only outgained NCST 415-392... After halftime, Miami benefited from a 41 yard pass play with an extra 15 yards for roughing the passer, and Mark Walton had a 30 yard TD run to take the 10-3 lead. NCST very next possession they marched the ball down the field, but Finley threw another redzone int. NCST ended up driving the ball down the field again, but had a false start on 3rd & 1 at the 4 yard line, making them try the FG attempt rather than the TD. (Jaylen Samuels also left game) The WR's also dropped 5 1st half passes, which wouldve changed the game drastically.
I'm not even going to talk about the Louisville loss because NCST was absolutely destroyed... This was during the first half of the season when Louisville was absolutely rolling.
The reason I think NCST is so undervalued is because they have an elite front 7 (4th-6th best in nation by my rankings)... Offensively they will be returning 4/5 Olineman, including a 2015 starter who missed last year because of violation of team rules. They have the same coaching staff, and will be returning 1st year QB Ryan Finley who threw for 3,059 yards 18 TD's and 8 Int's with the 3rd highest adjusted completion % in the ACC at 70%... According to Dave Doeren Finley looks much better already. (He's allegedly added 10 lbs of muscle), and he's much more comfortable reading defenses pre-snap, which makes sense. Finley should also benefit from the experience that the Oline and WR corps gained throughout the year... This is a team that should benefit from getting the extra 15 Bowl game practices.
They're also loaded with some serious talent at the skill positions, Kelvin Harmon has the 2nd highest passer rating among WR's, QB's throw for 127.8 passer rating when targeting him.
Jaylen Samuels is one of the best offensive weapons in college football, and has had a ton of production both running and receiving. 13 TD's
Stephen Louis is a 6'3 217lbs big wr who had 35 rec for 678 yards for a 19.4 avg
Nyheim Hines is another great weapon, and was a 2015 Freshman All American. Not only is he able to get yards after the catch, but he's an elite KR/PR