2016 record: 19-7 (73%)
Late post because I was waiting for -11 and we just got there on 5 Dimes as I type this.
So here it is quick and dirty.
The Pick:
IOWA -11 over PURDUE
Here are the last 8 games in the Hazell era off a win. Sorry for the small sample size since he's only won 8 games in his soon to be 4 year tenure.
vs, Notre Dame Loss 31-24
vs. Central Michigan Loss 38-17
vs. Iowa Loss 24-10
vs. Michigan State Loss 45-31
vs. Virginia Tech Loss 51-24
vs. Illinois Loss 48-14
vs. Cincinnati Loss 38-20
vs. Maryland Loss 50-7
Folks, the last 4 games the past two years were against average to below average teams. And the scores in those games are worse than the previous 4. So things are getting worse off a win while they appear to be getting better with an overall record of 3-2.
ATS Record off a loss in the Hazell era:
1-7 ATS with the lone cover coming in Hazell's infancy as a coach against ND.
Average margin off loss off a win in the Hazell era:
22 points
And here's a double whammy. Today is Homecoming for Purdue.
Record in the Hazell era during Homecoming:
0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS
Average margin of loss during Homecoming in the Hazell era:
25.3 points. (Alumni pride....)
Who did Purdue beat this year?
Eastern Kentucky - An FCS team to open the season AT HOME. Purdue made sure their early season schedule favored the hell out of them.
Nevada - Off a 9 am body clock time and worse, they were flying in from Hawaii the previous week to play this game. Purdue knew this and they scheduled them at home. Still it took at botched 27 yard FG by Nevada to keep the score 17-14 Purdue with under 4 minutes left and scored a very late TD to make the margin of victory look substantial.
Illinois - 1-4 in the Big Ten (yes, last place). They knocked the starting QB, West Lunt out with a late, cheap hit and Illinois racked up 125 yards in penalties.
And after all that, Illinois also missed a FG at the gun after 3 Hazell time outs and fumbled on the opening possession in OT.
Hazell still has a woefully poor record in the Big Ten :
3-24
Finally, we know Iowa does one thing well but that is why they are afraid of this number. They run. And you are afraid they will eat up too much clock while scoring too little. Well let's look into that.
What has Purdue done against the run this year. They gave up the following:
165 vs. EKU
262 vs. Cincy
68 vs. Nevada
400! vs. Maryland
315! vs. Illinois
Add to this:
Purdue lost it's leading wide receiver last week in Domonique Young.
Purdue's best defensive player in Ja'Whuan Bentley is hobbled and if he plays he won't be full speed.
Iowa's RB's? You don't think they are salivating against this Rush D?
Akrum Wadley: 416 yards and 7 TD's
Leshaun Daniels: 429 yards and 4 TD's
You think CJ Beathard is bad? He only has 1,087 yards and 9TD's vs. 4 picks (Blough through 4 picks against Cincy alone!).
But his best game last year came against (you guessed it): Purdue (245 yards and 1 TD).
Worse for Purdue they get Markell Jones back. This is more bad than good? Yes. Beacause the running back by committee last week was excellent with Langford-Johnson running for 127 and Worship running for 60. It was one of Purdue's greatest revelations and now you bring in Jones who can put the ball on the ground. I've seen Jones run many, many give up plays. Those kids last week ran their heart out. I'd much more rather see Markell on the sidelines believe it or not. He'll rack up yards but I'd take these kids again over him.
It's a tough line that can be backdoored but Purdue is not winning this game.
And on top of that, if Purdue wins and Nebraska loses Purdue will be in FIRST PLACE in the Big Ten West. That folks, would be a signal of the Apocalypse. 11.5 is tough but in light of the above I'm laying it was an bet that is tempered in size.
To the guys who follow me in the NBA, remember the Knicks playing at noon run we had? This Purdue off a win stat reminds me so much of that...