Meant to ask, thoughts on Appalachian State team total Under 18? I don't see them scoring much vs. Tennessee. Tempted to take the Under 57.5, but I think App State TT Under is a better bet.
Meant to ask, thoughts on Appalachian State team total Under 18? I don't see them scoring much vs. Tennessee. Tempted to take the Under 57.5, but I think App State TT Under is a better bet.
MAYBE.....the only angle you missed...and one I forget (mentioned it a few times) *is which team is in class ?.....which NOT?
The 1st thing I checked when breaking down Wyo / UNI *west teams often start much later....others early
IF....(traveling) UNI in class....therefore subject to (more) practice restrictions ...and distractions / stress.....Wyoming NOT = huge edge esp when combined with altitude factor *Wyoming THEN could work longer than the 20 hours UNI was restricted to....NUMBER of practices the same tho
But NO....Wyoming starts 8/29 or so.............
eg. REALLY like Nebraska vs Ducks week 3?.....Ducks not in class until 9/26....here they are traveling so minimal effect....maybe $$ I was 1st made aware of this a few years back....LSU at Washington in a late game.....shoulda spanked 'em....but in class > tired....Huskies much fresher > covered but still lost
MAYBE.....the only angle you missed...and one I forget (mentioned it a few times) *is which team is in class ?.....which NOT?
The 1st thing I checked when breaking down Wyo / UNI *west teams often start much later....others early
IF....(traveling) UNI in class....therefore subject to (more) practice restrictions ...and distractions / stress.....Wyoming NOT = huge edge esp when combined with altitude factor *Wyoming THEN could work longer than the 20 hours UNI was restricted to....NUMBER of practices the same tho
But NO....Wyoming starts 8/29 or so.............
eg. REALLY like Nebraska vs Ducks week 3?.....Ducks not in class until 9/26....here they are traveling so minimal effect....maybe $$ I was 1st made aware of this a few years back....LSU at Washington in a late game.....shoulda spanked 'em....but in class > tired....Huskies much fresher > covered but still lost
Missouri / West Virginia Under 50.5 (0.5u) & Under 48.5 (0.5u)
Rutgers +24 (0.75u)
New Hampshire +33 (0.75u)
Clemson -7 (0.75u) -115
Missouri +11.5 (0.5u)
USC +14.5 (0.5u) -130
Added: Rice +17 (0.75u)
College Extra:
North Carolina A&T -44.5 (0.5u)
James Madison -21 (0.5u)
Illinois State -46 (0.5u)
Mercer +8.5 (0.5u)
WKU has 3 QBs in a tighter race than expected to replace Doughty. Defense ahead of the offense in the spring and early fall practices. I'm not really buying that the QB play is starting to come around in last few days of practice. Seems more like WKU has 0 QBs than 3 real options. I expect a large drop off in offensive production from WKU, especially early in the season.
Missouri / West Virginia Under 50.5 (0.5u) & Under 48.5 (0.5u)
Rutgers +24 (0.75u)
New Hampshire +33 (0.75u)
Clemson -7 (0.75u) -115
Missouri +11.5 (0.5u)
USC +14.5 (0.5u) -130
Added: Rice +17 (0.75u)
College Extra:
North Carolina A&T -44.5 (0.5u)
James Madison -21 (0.5u)
Illinois State -46 (0.5u)
Mercer +8.5 (0.5u)
WKU has 3 QBs in a tighter race than expected to replace Doughty. Defense ahead of the offense in the spring and early fall practices. I'm not really buying that the QB play is starting to come around in last few days of practice. Seems more like WKU has 0 QBs than 3 real options. I expect a large drop off in offensive production from WKU, especially early in the season.
TD, Great lines on those games. Several I can't touch anymore.
Got some FBS/FCS games I keep going back to.
Weber St. +21.5 @Utah St.
@N. Mexico -13 S. Dakota
@Nevada -15.5 Cal Poly
N. Ariz. +24.5 @Ariz. St.
Any of those look ridiculous to you? I'm sure you've looked at them every way there is.
GL, Doc
Doc, like Nevada -15.5 the best of those 4. Nevada should put up some points on this Cal Poly D. Also like the Over based on Massey. Nevada completely new Front 7 should give up some points vs. the Option. Nevada offense won't be able to let up, should pull away. Least favorite of the 4 is Northern Arizona +24.5. Nice FCS offense, but defense is lacking and that could be a big problem vs. ASU talent level. Yes, ASU offense rebuilding, but certainly a talent disparity between ASU offense and NAU defense. ASU aggressive Front 7 pass rush mostly figured out by PAC 12 offenses in 2015 and left the Secondary vulnerable a few games. Not sure NAU can pass protect the way those P12 teams did. ASU getting pressure on Cookus is a real wild card in this game, but I wouldn't want to chance it. Wouldn't be surprised if ASU really gets after him. NAU not very good results vs. FBS the last few years. Other two picks listed, probably like New Mexico -13 2nd best behind Nevada play. Just checked and it's now up to -16 on 5D, so hope that was you that hit that. North Dakota some losses on Front 7 D, tough matchup probably with new starters facing the option. Probably pass either way on the Weber State vs. Utah State game. Weber much better in 2015 than last few years, but really only 2 of 6 wins vs. decent teams. Couple blowout losses vs. good teams. Lose a couple D-linemen it looks like. Secondary from a weakness to strength??? Utah State loses a lot of guys on D, but Weber State offense not strong enough to really take advantage. No feel on this one.
Plenty of FCS pending; some ideas.....
Towson +31 (30 now)
Syracuse / Colgate Over, refresh and then bet it again.
Curious how low they go on UConn vs. Maine total.
Hell, I'll probably take Northwestern State +52 for a small play. Grobe knows it's a long season and he has no depth.
TD, Great lines on those games. Several I can't touch anymore.
Got some FBS/FCS games I keep going back to.
Weber St. +21.5 @Utah St.
@N. Mexico -13 S. Dakota
@Nevada -15.5 Cal Poly
N. Ariz. +24.5 @Ariz. St.
Any of those look ridiculous to you? I'm sure you've looked at them every way there is.
GL, Doc
Doc, like Nevada -15.5 the best of those 4. Nevada should put up some points on this Cal Poly D. Also like the Over based on Massey. Nevada completely new Front 7 should give up some points vs. the Option. Nevada offense won't be able to let up, should pull away. Least favorite of the 4 is Northern Arizona +24.5. Nice FCS offense, but defense is lacking and that could be a big problem vs. ASU talent level. Yes, ASU offense rebuilding, but certainly a talent disparity between ASU offense and NAU defense. ASU aggressive Front 7 pass rush mostly figured out by PAC 12 offenses in 2015 and left the Secondary vulnerable a few games. Not sure NAU can pass protect the way those P12 teams did. ASU getting pressure on Cookus is a real wild card in this game, but I wouldn't want to chance it. Wouldn't be surprised if ASU really gets after him. NAU not very good results vs. FBS the last few years. Other two picks listed, probably like New Mexico -13 2nd best behind Nevada play. Just checked and it's now up to -16 on 5D, so hope that was you that hit that. North Dakota some losses on Front 7 D, tough matchup probably with new starters facing the option. Probably pass either way on the Weber State vs. Utah State game. Weber much better in 2015 than last few years, but really only 2 of 6 wins vs. decent teams. Couple blowout losses vs. good teams. Lose a couple D-linemen it looks like. Secondary from a weakness to strength??? Utah State loses a lot of guys on D, but Weber State offense not strong enough to really take advantage. No feel on this one.
Plenty of FCS pending; some ideas.....
Towson +31 (30 now)
Syracuse / Colgate Over, refresh and then bet it again.
Curious how low they go on UConn vs. Maine total.
Hell, I'll probably take Northwestern State +52 for a small play. Grobe knows it's a long season and he has no depth.
Missouri / West Virginia Under 50.5 (0.5u) & Under 48.5 (0.5u)
Rutgers +24 (0.75u)
New Hampshire +33 (0.75u)
Clemson -7 (0.75u) -115
Rice +17 (0.75u)
Missouri +11.5 (0.5u)
USC +14.5 (0.5u) -130
Added: Northwestern State +52 (0.5u)
College Extra:
North Carolina A&T -44.5 (0.5u)
James Madison -21 (0.5u)
Illinois State -46 (0.5u)
Mercer +8.5 (0.5u)
Looked into it in more detail late yesterday and made the Northwestern State +52 play official. Northwestern State has 7 starters back on both offense and defense plus some transfers coming in at QB & LB. The bad 2015 defense only had 3 starters back last year and had a new DC for the 4th straight season. This year there is better continuity with more starters back and the same DC for the first time in several years. They're running a 3-4 and return 2 D-line starters, 3 experienced LBs plus transfers, and experienced at Safety. Depth a little thin at CB, but 1 of 2 has played a lot. Baylor will still get plenty of points but 52 points is too many as Northwestern State offense should be good for 14 points if they can pick up the blitz at all. With all the Baylor linemen (both O & D) lost to graduation and then JUCOs they were counting on to step in and start have left the program, Baylor is paper thin on depth (also just noticed DT Bonds is now on the donbest injury report). HC Jim Grobe knows this and has to be strategic to survive the season. No benefit to him to leave the starters in any longer than necessary. WR KD Cannon had minor offseason knee surgery. RB Johnny Jefferson already banged up and held out of practice. This is not you're 2014 & 2015 version of Baylor that comes out and wins this type of game 70-7.
Missouri / West Virginia Under 50.5 (0.5u) & Under 48.5 (0.5u)
Rutgers +24 (0.75u)
New Hampshire +33 (0.75u)
Clemson -7 (0.75u) -115
Rice +17 (0.75u)
Missouri +11.5 (0.5u)
USC +14.5 (0.5u) -130
Added: Northwestern State +52 (0.5u)
College Extra:
North Carolina A&T -44.5 (0.5u)
James Madison -21 (0.5u)
Illinois State -46 (0.5u)
Mercer +8.5 (0.5u)
Looked into it in more detail late yesterday and made the Northwestern State +52 play official. Northwestern State has 7 starters back on both offense and defense plus some transfers coming in at QB & LB. The bad 2015 defense only had 3 starters back last year and had a new DC for the 4th straight season. This year there is better continuity with more starters back and the same DC for the first time in several years. They're running a 3-4 and return 2 D-line starters, 3 experienced LBs plus transfers, and experienced at Safety. Depth a little thin at CB, but 1 of 2 has played a lot. Baylor will still get plenty of points but 52 points is too many as Northwestern State offense should be good for 14 points if they can pick up the blitz at all. With all the Baylor linemen (both O & D) lost to graduation and then JUCOs they were counting on to step in and start have left the program, Baylor is paper thin on depth (also just noticed DT Bonds is now on the donbest injury report). HC Jim Grobe knows this and has to be strategic to survive the season. No benefit to him to leave the starters in any longer than necessary. WR KD Cannon had minor offseason knee surgery. RB Johnny Jefferson already banged up and held out of practice. This is not you're 2014 & 2015 version of Baylor that comes out and wins this type of game 70-7.
I think the bottom line with Grobe....... *just how bad will it look....for them to beat the living helll outta defenseless (essentially) teams.....?? *playing EVERYBODY.....especially all the young guys that stayed.....winning a 45-7.....51-13 type game is plenty good....he will NEVER leave starters in > run it up........
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
I think the bottom line with Grobe....... *just how bad will it look....for them to beat the living helll outta defenseless (essentially) teams.....?? *playing EVERYBODY.....especially all the young guys that stayed.....winning a 45-7.....51-13 type game is plenty good....he will NEVER leave starters in > run it up........
TD - Thank you for the breakdown on Baylor. I've been wondering about all the details you addressed, especially with new/interim HC Grobe. Seems to me he just wants to see what he has and won't do anything to cause even more "depth" problems. It's definitely a play, even though the line is down to 51.5 at 5Dimes
TD - Thank you for the breakdown on Baylor. I've been wondering about all the details you addressed, especially with new/interim HC Grobe. Seems to me he just wants to see what he has and won't do anything to cause even more "depth" problems. It's definitely a play, even though the line is down to 51.5 at 5Dimes
TD, Thanks for the thoughts. No, it wasn't me who jumped that N. Mx. line 3 pts. I'm waiting on all these FCS games for now but will be playing some soon.
Getting the itchy finger on the Nevada game.
Probably follow your pick on N.W. St. Everything you said makes sense although I do like Baylor if healthy this year. Grobe reported to say they were lackadaisical last scrimmage. That worries me also.
I like to find some really bad teams to bet against and Maine seems to fit the bill. Rebuilding Def. and just 15 pts.a game scored last year. 1st yr. 30 yr. old coach? UConn returns a bunch on a really good defense. Not sure a less that less than average offense holds them back in this one. Should be slightly improved on that side of the ball.
Towson has had my eve from the start. If the 4 star QB is the real thing I could see them being decent this year.
Still looking at so many. Lots of times that really good line doesn't come out until Sat. morning. Patience is a good quality in this betting game.
TD, Thanks for the thoughts. No, it wasn't me who jumped that N. Mx. line 3 pts. I'm waiting on all these FCS games for now but will be playing some soon.
Getting the itchy finger on the Nevada game.
Probably follow your pick on N.W. St. Everything you said makes sense although I do like Baylor if healthy this year. Grobe reported to say they were lackadaisical last scrimmage. That worries me also.
I like to find some really bad teams to bet against and Maine seems to fit the bill. Rebuilding Def. and just 15 pts.a game scored last year. 1st yr. 30 yr. old coach? UConn returns a bunch on a really good defense. Not sure a less that less than average offense holds them back in this one. Should be slightly improved on that side of the ball.
Towson has had my eve from the start. If the 4 star QB is the real thing I could see them being decent this year.
Still looking at so many. Lots of times that really good line doesn't come out until Sat. morning. Patience is a good quality in this betting game.
One game that keeps jumping off the screen at me....?
Northern Iowa +7 at ISU *ISU is gonna have to fight like crazy just to win this one aren't they?....ISU nice RB / WR sure....but he's got ONE OL.....and now he's out for the year (sounds like) $ I look for them to be a play-on team LATER...maybe even 9/24 vs SJSU ......line value since off UNI > @ Iowa > @ TCU
Panthers are TOUGH in these games....and return 2 1000 yd rushers (QB/RB)....8/4 starters (lose all DB's)
ironically only big loss was LY vs ISU (31-7 / +7)
2014 L 23-31 at Iowa L 24-27 at Hawaii 2013 W at ISU 28-20 2012 L 21-26 at Wisky L 16-27 at Iowa 2011 L 20-19 at ISU
Massey says 28-20.....Sagarin 25-20
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
One game that keeps jumping off the screen at me....?
Northern Iowa +7 at ISU *ISU is gonna have to fight like crazy just to win this one aren't they?....ISU nice RB / WR sure....but he's got ONE OL.....and now he's out for the year (sounds like) $ I look for them to be a play-on team LATER...maybe even 9/24 vs SJSU ......line value since off UNI > @ Iowa > @ TCU
Panthers are TOUGH in these games....and return 2 1000 yd rushers (QB/RB)....8/4 starters (lose all DB's)
ironically only big loss was LY vs ISU (31-7 / +7)
2014 L 23-31 at Iowa L 24-27 at Hawaii 2013 W at ISU 28-20 2012 L 21-26 at Wisky L 16-27 at Iowa 2011 L 20-19 at ISU
Sorry if already discussed....One game that keeps jumping off the screen at me....?Northern Iowa +7 at ISU *ISU is gonna have to fight like crazy just to win this one aren't they?....ISU nice RB / WR sure....but he's got ONE OL.....and now he's out for the year (sounds like) $ I look for them to be a play-on team LATER...maybe even 9/24 vs SJSU ......line value since off UNI > @ Iowa > @ TCU Panthers are TOUGH in these games....and return 2 1000 yd rushers (QB/RB)....8/4 starters (lose all DB's)ironically only big loss was LY vs ISU (31-7 / +7)2014 L 23-31 at Iowa L 24-27 at Hawaii2013 W at ISU 28-202012 L 21-26 at Wisky L 16-27 at Iowa2011 L 20-19 at ISUMassey says 28-20.....Sagarin 25-20
BA, not discussed yet, but definitely on my radar. I've been waiting PATIENTLY for +7.5 or better since it opened at 7 on 5D. Hasn't moved once yet to my knowledge. Also on my list of about 5 teams for UDML parlay. Interesting matchup; UNI no returning DBs and ISU no returning O-linemen. Will add more thoughts later tonight when I get home.
..... NDSU / CSU total being released appears imminent. Exciting times!
Sorry if already discussed....One game that keeps jumping off the screen at me....?Northern Iowa +7 at ISU *ISU is gonna have to fight like crazy just to win this one aren't they?....ISU nice RB / WR sure....but he's got ONE OL.....and now he's out for the year (sounds like) $ I look for them to be a play-on team LATER...maybe even 9/24 vs SJSU ......line value since off UNI > @ Iowa > @ TCU Panthers are TOUGH in these games....and return 2 1000 yd rushers (QB/RB)....8/4 starters (lose all DB's)ironically only big loss was LY vs ISU (31-7 / +7)2014 L 23-31 at Iowa L 24-27 at Hawaii2013 W at ISU 28-202012 L 21-26 at Wisky L 16-27 at Iowa2011 L 20-19 at ISUMassey says 28-20.....Sagarin 25-20
BA, not discussed yet, but definitely on my radar. I've been waiting PATIENTLY for +7.5 or better since it opened at 7 on 5D. Hasn't moved once yet to my knowledge. Also on my list of about 5 teams for UDML parlay. Interesting matchup; UNI no returning DBs and ISU no returning O-linemen. Will add more thoughts later tonight when I get home.
..... NDSU / CSU total being released appears imminent. Exciting times!
.... Fck, what I started to write about the UNI / ISU game just reset on the ol iPad. Will have to start fresh tomorrow.
.....some other UDML ideas in addition to Northern Iowa are:
Boston College
Rice
Mercer
Others to consider:
Wyoming
Missouri
Texas 1st half in particular
Ole Miss
BA, like your Lamar idea as well.
Usually play these UDML parlays real small as 2x2 round robin and sometimes throw in a strong straight bet to pair them up with. A few wins pays for the attempt at landing 'the big one'
.... Fck, what I started to write about the UNI / ISU game just reset on the ol iPad. Will have to start fresh tomorrow.
.....some other UDML ideas in addition to Northern Iowa are:
Boston College
Rice
Mercer
Others to consider:
Wyoming
Missouri
Texas 1st half in particular
Ole Miss
BA, like your Lamar idea as well.
Usually play these UDML parlays real small as 2x2 round robin and sometimes throw in a strong straight bet to pair them up with. A few wins pays for the attempt at landing 'the big one'
.... Fck, what I started to write about the UNI / ISU game just reset on the ol iPad. Will have to start fresh tomorrow.
.....some other UDML ideas in addition to Northern Iowa are:
Boston College
Rice
Mercer
Others to consider:
Wyoming
Missouri
Texas 1st half in particular
Ole Miss
BA, like your Lamar idea as well.
Usually play these UDML parlays real small as 2x2 round robin and sometimes throw in a strong straight bet to pair them up with. A few wins pays for the attempt at landing 'the big one'
TD
Almost forgot one, another long shot........ I think EWU could scare the heck out of WSU. But, I doubt the Cougs will lose 2 years in a row to a Big Sky team. Cooper Kupp will have a big game similar to vs. Oregon last year, but maybe not quite that ridiculous in the box score. .....And to think I grew up watching his Dad Craig Kupp play for PLU, damn I'm feeling old. Good stuff in the Pacific Northwest small college ball.
.... Fck, what I started to write about the UNI / ISU game just reset on the ol iPad. Will have to start fresh tomorrow.
.....some other UDML ideas in addition to Northern Iowa are:
Boston College
Rice
Mercer
Others to consider:
Wyoming
Missouri
Texas 1st half in particular
Ole Miss
BA, like your Lamar idea as well.
Usually play these UDML parlays real small as 2x2 round robin and sometimes throw in a strong straight bet to pair them up with. A few wins pays for the attempt at landing 'the big one'
TD
Almost forgot one, another long shot........ I think EWU could scare the heck out of WSU. But, I doubt the Cougs will lose 2 years in a row to a Big Sky team. Cooper Kupp will have a big game similar to vs. Oregon last year, but maybe not quite that ridiculous in the box score. .....And to think I grew up watching his Dad Craig Kupp play for PLU, damn I'm feeling old. Good stuff in the Pacific Northwest small college ball.
Missouri / West Virginia Under 50.5 (0.5u) & Under 48.5 (0.5u)
Rutgers +24 (0.75u)
New Hampshire +33 (0.75u)
Clemson -7 (0.75u) -115
Rice +17 (0.75u)
Missouri +11.5 (0.5u)
USC +14.5 (0.5u) -130
Northwestern State +52 (0.5u)
Northwestern University -5.5 (0.5u)
College Extra:
North Carolina A&T -44.5 (0.5u)
James Madison -21 (0.5u)
Illinois State -46 (0.5u)
Mercer +8.5 (0.5u)
Added: Bucknell -6.5 (0.5u)
Would like it better if RB C.J. Williams was 100% after a 2015 season ending injury. But regardless of who lines up at RB, Bucknell has the advantage in the trenches vs. Marist on both sides of the ball. Bucknell LT Davenport is FCS AA and 4 other SR O-linemen also return (combined 62 career starts). While Marist lost most of their experienced D-linemen to graduation. Bucknell 8 / 8 starters back and Marist 7 / 5. Should be a low scoring game. I don't expect Marist to score much.
Missouri / West Virginia Under 50.5 (0.5u) & Under 48.5 (0.5u)
Rutgers +24 (0.75u)
New Hampshire +33 (0.75u)
Clemson -7 (0.75u) -115
Rice +17 (0.75u)
Missouri +11.5 (0.5u)
USC +14.5 (0.5u) -130
Northwestern State +52 (0.5u)
Northwestern University -5.5 (0.5u)
College Extra:
North Carolina A&T -44.5 (0.5u)
James Madison -21 (0.5u)
Illinois State -46 (0.5u)
Mercer +8.5 (0.5u)
Added: Bucknell -6.5 (0.5u)
Would like it better if RB C.J. Williams was 100% after a 2015 season ending injury. But regardless of who lines up at RB, Bucknell has the advantage in the trenches vs. Marist on both sides of the ball. Bucknell LT Davenport is FCS AA and 4 other SR O-linemen also return (combined 62 career starts). While Marist lost most of their experienced D-linemen to graduation. Bucknell 8 / 8 starters back and Marist 7 / 5. Should be a low scoring game. I don't expect Marist to score much.
Alright, Northern Iowa at Iowa State. First off, I've mentioned it a time or two on here over the years, but full disclosure, my Dad coached college football for many years and I grew up riding the team bus & all that...... he was at UNI years ago and I still follow & cheer for the team to do well, but I think I'm pretty objective when it comes to finding solid plays and line value. If you haven't noticed I also tend to analyze the coaching part of capping a game more than most. I think that aspect is extremely important.
I tried to find some practice updates recently as the UNI Secondary losses are a concern. Couldn't find much as many of these Iowa online newspapers require a subscription. I did see that a true FR may start at one CB spot. There are several DB transfers on the roster, but they were on the team last year and barely saw the field, so tough to decide how much talent those individuals really have. Two starters they were behind are having a cup of tea in the NFL, so maybe backup not bad. No way to really know, but the Secondary is a downside.
I also read that the UNI O-line is down a several players in practice, but could not find any specifics on how significant of injuries. I'd hope at this time of year they're just knicked up and now trying to get 100% healthy for week 1. Will need to follow up on that as much as possible. When healthy this is a solid veteran O-line that can hold their own vs. Iowa State's D-line.
UNI has a brutal opening season schedule and they know they can't start 0-3 vs. Iowa State, Montana, and Eastern Washington. In their minds this is a winnable game. And the 2015 score was not indicative of how close the game really was. See UNI vs. FBS teams in previous years to know how competitive they've been in these games. 2015 game Iowa State up 10-7 at halftime and won 31-7, but with TD drives of 38 yards, 43 yards, 23 yards, and a punt return TD. Total yards: UNI 302 / ISU 310, Rushing Yards UNI 126, ISU 77. TOP UNI 33:10 / ISU 26:50. UNI needs to clean up the mistakes & Special Teams play and not give ISU a short field again. QB Bailey much more experienced with a year starting under his belt.
ISU with 1 O-lineman returning and now 0 with LT Campos now out for the year. Another thing I don't care for (coaching angle again) is that ISU has a first time coordinator (I did find an article that indicates he will call the plays and not HC Matt Campbell). But what I really don't like is that he's not only the OC and has to spend extra hours in his week developing a gameplan, but he's also the O-line coach dealing with 5 new starters. UNI front 7 not too shabby either, will match up well here.
Would like +7.5 or better. May have to wait until the morning of the game. My baseline #s have this at +5, but matchup & situational review I like UNI slightly more than the baseline #s indicate.
Alright, Northern Iowa at Iowa State. First off, I've mentioned it a time or two on here over the years, but full disclosure, my Dad coached college football for many years and I grew up riding the team bus & all that...... he was at UNI years ago and I still follow & cheer for the team to do well, but I think I'm pretty objective when it comes to finding solid plays and line value. If you haven't noticed I also tend to analyze the coaching part of capping a game more than most. I think that aspect is extremely important.
I tried to find some practice updates recently as the UNI Secondary losses are a concern. Couldn't find much as many of these Iowa online newspapers require a subscription. I did see that a true FR may start at one CB spot. There are several DB transfers on the roster, but they were on the team last year and barely saw the field, so tough to decide how much talent those individuals really have. Two starters they were behind are having a cup of tea in the NFL, so maybe backup not bad. No way to really know, but the Secondary is a downside.
I also read that the UNI O-line is down a several players in practice, but could not find any specifics on how significant of injuries. I'd hope at this time of year they're just knicked up and now trying to get 100% healthy for week 1. Will need to follow up on that as much as possible. When healthy this is a solid veteran O-line that can hold their own vs. Iowa State's D-line.
UNI has a brutal opening season schedule and they know they can't start 0-3 vs. Iowa State, Montana, and Eastern Washington. In their minds this is a winnable game. And the 2015 score was not indicative of how close the game really was. See UNI vs. FBS teams in previous years to know how competitive they've been in these games. 2015 game Iowa State up 10-7 at halftime and won 31-7, but with TD drives of 38 yards, 43 yards, 23 yards, and a punt return TD. Total yards: UNI 302 / ISU 310, Rushing Yards UNI 126, ISU 77. TOP UNI 33:10 / ISU 26:50. UNI needs to clean up the mistakes & Special Teams play and not give ISU a short field again. QB Bailey much more experienced with a year starting under his belt.
ISU with 1 O-lineman returning and now 0 with LT Campos now out for the year. Another thing I don't care for (coaching angle again) is that ISU has a first time coordinator (I did find an article that indicates he will call the plays and not HC Matt Campbell). But what I really don't like is that he's not only the OC and has to spend extra hours in his week developing a gameplan, but he's also the O-line coach dealing with 5 new starters. UNI front 7 not too shabby either, will match up well here.
Would like +7.5 or better. May have to wait until the morning of the game. My baseline #s have this at +5, but matchup & situational review I like UNI slightly more than the baseline #s indicate.
Been working on a couple other things Thursday & Friday night, just didn't get around to posting them yet....... Too much time spent on OU / Houston write-up in another thread.
Moving on.....
(Mostly) Underdog Moneyline parlay:
North Dakota State -1100
Rice +575
Boston College +150
Missouri +290
Northern Iowa +210
OPEN spot
Risking 0.15u to win TBD (currently lists 33.2 units), but jumps up considerably if/when I add Mercer +210ish.
Yesterday grabbed week 2 "GOY" line:
Louisville -12.5 at Syracuse for 1u. Yes, Friday night away game with a big game on deck. Don't mind. Think it's a blowout in preparation for the big game. Syracuse new schemes this year. Babers hilarious recent quote not at all trying to hide the fact that they are bad / have no depth at DE. ..... Buy a ticket and you might get some playing time.
Been working on a couple other things Thursday & Friday night, just didn't get around to posting them yet....... Too much time spent on OU / Houston write-up in another thread.
Moving on.....
(Mostly) Underdog Moneyline parlay:
North Dakota State -1100
Rice +575
Boston College +150
Missouri +290
Northern Iowa +210
OPEN spot
Risking 0.15u to win TBD (currently lists 33.2 units), but jumps up considerably if/when I add Mercer +210ish.
Yesterday grabbed week 2 "GOY" line:
Louisville -12.5 at Syracuse for 1u. Yes, Friday night away game with a big game on deck. Don't mind. Think it's a blowout in preparation for the big game. Syracuse new schemes this year. Babers hilarious recent quote not at all trying to hide the fact that they are bad / have no depth at DE. ..... Buy a ticket and you might get some playing time.
Wow, didn't see Vegas releasing such a high total for tonight's FCS game. 5D follows suits and moves total to 51.5.
Added:
Under 51.5 (0.5u) -110
*already on U48 for 1.5u -120
Charleston Southern team total Under 16 (0.75u) -110
Personally I think this game is about a 31-6 win by NDSU. IF it goes over, it's because NDSU blows them out 42-10 or so.
Two ball control offenses. NDSU averaged 36.5 minutes TOP in 2015. CSU averaged 33 minutes TOP. CSU option offense that lost 3 O-line starters, big TE, leading WR, and 1 QB (arguably main starter) gone, but they 'rotate' QBs out of necessity. NDSU front 7 is stout and returns 6 of 7. I can't see the CSU option offense with these returnees having much success. Big South not a great conference at this level, so don't be fooled by the CSU preseason FCS ranking. NDSU offense without one of three returning O-linemen; starting Center is serving academic suspension. QB Stick filled in admirably for Carson Wentz in 2015 when he went down with an injury. Stick not the strong passer (yet) that we saw from Wentz. How much passing will Stick need to do tonight vs. CSU?? I don't think much, but more balanced in the first half. I expect typical NDSU get a lead and then ball control, run the clock, run first 2nd half. 2nd half Under always worth a look when NDSU has a comfortable halftime lead. Hopefully CSU run D holds their own for a little while. That's my biggest concern is they just get rolled by the NDSU power run game.
Wow, didn't see Vegas releasing such a high total for tonight's FCS game. 5D follows suits and moves total to 51.5.
Added:
Under 51.5 (0.5u) -110
*already on U48 for 1.5u -120
Charleston Southern team total Under 16 (0.75u) -110
Personally I think this game is about a 31-6 win by NDSU. IF it goes over, it's because NDSU blows them out 42-10 or so.
Two ball control offenses. NDSU averaged 36.5 minutes TOP in 2015. CSU averaged 33 minutes TOP. CSU option offense that lost 3 O-line starters, big TE, leading WR, and 1 QB (arguably main starter) gone, but they 'rotate' QBs out of necessity. NDSU front 7 is stout and returns 6 of 7. I can't see the CSU option offense with these returnees having much success. Big South not a great conference at this level, so don't be fooled by the CSU preseason FCS ranking. NDSU offense without one of three returning O-linemen; starting Center is serving academic suspension. QB Stick filled in admirably for Carson Wentz in 2015 when he went down with an injury. Stick not the strong passer (yet) that we saw from Wentz. How much passing will Stick need to do tonight vs. CSU?? I don't think much, but more balanced in the first half. I expect typical NDSU get a lead and then ball control, run the clock, run first 2nd half. 2nd half Under always worth a look when NDSU has a comfortable halftime lead. Hopefully CSU run D holds their own for a little while. That's my biggest concern is they just get rolled by the NDSU power run game.
TD, I was hoping you might give your thoughts on tonight's game. The talent difference of the conferences was swaying me to play @NDSU -20 / -21 but will play the under. May wait to see if I can get that magic 17 on the TT's. CC did have a nice run in the play offs last year but couldn't stay with the big boys.
Really like UConn and Nevada. Once again, big talent difference in conferences and both teams decent enough.
I'll settle on a small UDML eventually. Right now I would go with UCLA +135, B.C.+150 and N. Mx. St. +245. I may buy out on N.Mx.St. all together if I hear more bad news on them.
TD, I was hoping you might give your thoughts on tonight's game. The talent difference of the conferences was swaying me to play @NDSU -20 / -21 but will play the under. May wait to see if I can get that magic 17 on the TT's. CC did have a nice run in the play offs last year but couldn't stay with the big boys.
Really like UConn and Nevada. Once again, big talent difference in conferences and both teams decent enough.
I'll settle on a small UDML eventually. Right now I would go with UCLA +135, B.C.+150 and N. Mx. St. +245. I may buy out on N.Mx.St. all together if I hear more bad news on them.
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