Well, that is the line move I was looking for.......
#2 North Dakota State (-2) @ #5 South Dakota State
A few thoughts on the game in general:
Pretty much everything I can write about NDSU is, at this point, redundant. So, I will hit a few of the high points regarding NDSU:
1) After a week one loss @ UM, NDSU has beaten Weber State and North Dakota....44-14, 34-9. Both games were in the Fargo dome, and both games were not close. Believe it or not, that Weber State team is much improved.
2) NDSU is coming off of their second bye of the season.
3) It is key to not put too much stock into the Week 1 loss @ Montana. That game was Montana's superbowl, and obviously was what they had prepared all year for.....tough environment, and a few plays went UM's way late in the game. IF NDSU and UM were to strap it on tomorrow and play, I would take NDSU and lay whatever.
4) The NDSU offensive line and QB is the strength of this squad. The receiving corps is solid, but the O-line has the potential to control football games. NDSU ran for 306 vs Weber, and only 115 vs North Dakota....total yardage in the weber game was 586 and 377 vs UND.
5) The defense is stout, and getting better. MLB Deluca IMO is the best defensive player in FCS. The defense gave up only 3 first downs vs UND.
Thoughts on the Jackrabbits:
1) The Jacks play a creative scheme on offense. Anybody whom watched the KU game to begin the season can attest to that....it isn't quite spread pass, it isn't quite spread run...the scheme really is multiple, and it is effective. QB Lujan is putting up some large #'s......over 1000yds passing, 8/2 ratio, avg 353 per game.
2) The offense is clicking, that is for sure....43 ppg, run it, throw it, whatever. The opposition has not been strong though....@ Kansas, Southern Utah, and Robert Morris. SU and Robert Morris were badly outmanned by the Jacks, while Kansas could not overcome stupidity and self-inflicted wounds. SDSU got up big and nursed the lead down the home stretch. KU QB fumbled the snap on a kill-the-clock play with 3 seconds left, or else that game has a good shot to go to OT with a tying FG attempt.
3) The defense has me a bit worried.....giving up 5.4 ypc, and 212ypg is not good. The defense struggled mightily vs KU from mid 2nd quarter on. They play lots of zone and do not challenge the line of scrimmage often...vs SU and Robert Morris, they could have played with 9 guys on D and been OK.
Bottom line: The previous meeting was in the playoffs in Fargo last season,... a classic, where SDSU blew a late lead and ended up losing, 27-24. Undoubtedly, SDSU will play with intensity, and will more than likely have a few tricks up their sleeves. Offensively, SDSU will move it between the 20's.....but vs the offense of NDSU, can you get TD's instead of FG's? I look for 30+ out of NDSU, and a statement being made. SDSU hangs in for a half, but in the end, it is ball control NDSU running game burning up the 4th quarter with a lead.
Pick: NDSU (-2).
GL with your plays.