Great analysis and perspective as always, Boom. Thank you.
I'll give my comments on the few teams/conferences I think I know a little about and not pretend on the ones I don't. :)
In the P12, as usual and even moreso than most years, the conference is really wide open with any one of the top 5 or a so capable of actually winning it. I'm not quite as high on Stanford this year as you are because I am unconvinced their running game will be as dominant as it was three and four years ago because I don't think they have as good of backs. If I'm wrong about that, then Stanford will contend or win the conference because of veteran QB play, well coached that doesn't beat themselves, physically imposing, and no real weaknesses - i.e. they do it all well, nothing really bad but their run game has to substantially improve for them to be top of the conference I think Oregon fades, maybe even more than a couple spots especially if they lose early to someone they shouldn't. I actually think its a fragile situation in Eugene to keep close to their recent production. Their offense demands great - not good, great - QB play, which they've had in abundance for a lot of years. If the guy this year gets rattled or isn't extremely proficient, though, Oregon can lose 4 games.
Also I like Ariz. State this year a lot. Todd Graham has said, publicly and repeatedly, this will be the best team he's had at ASU. They played a ton of underclassmen last year who have experience and talent. The QB, Bercovici (sp?), has been on the team for what seems like forever and knows the playbook like the back of his hand. He played brilliantly in relief of Kelly when he was hurt last year - no drop off behind center and a lot of returning, explosive talent. I think this is the year Sun Devils put it together for a run. They go in to Houston and beat the Aggies by 2 or more scores, to most people's surprise, week 1 I predict.
Couldn't agree more on TCU and the B12. Until someone knocks 'em off they're the class of the conference this year. Patterson's got a ton returning from last year and he will have them playing very good football from week 1. Baylor is the pretty obvious no. 2.
In SEC, gutsy (and great) call on LSU. I think Tigers are going to have a hellacious run game this year with Fournette establishing himself as the premier RB of the conference running behind a ferociously talented Oline in Baton Rouge. Don't know if they win the conference but definitely think it more likely they finish the season with 11/12 wins vs 8/9. Arkansas Razorbacks if their QB doesn't get hurt: 10 wins. The hype on the hogs is deserved and they will win a lot of football games but do not have overall talent level to win the conference.
My pick to win it? Auburn Tigers. Muschamp, whatever anyone thinks of his personality or HC performance, is a very good defensive coordinator and his teams have proved it throughout his career. He's stepping into the perfect situation, with a defense that has elite talent, lots of returning experience, immediate buy-in (according to the coaches), and seeking redemption from vastly underperforming last year which took them out of any playoff discussion (the O was fine overall). Malzahn will field an offense that scores - he never has failed to do that at any level in 25 years of coaching - ever. Muschamp will get the defense to play to its potential and Auburn will be a very focused team with talent, experience, scheme, and desire for redemption. A very difficult out for any of their opponents.
You're right about Tennessee; Butch Jones has done an admirable job and Vols win 8-9 games; they're a QB and a year away from double digits tho IMO. Bama will win most their games due to imposing their will physically on the other team = 10 wins, possibly more if Saban finds a QB, which he is not known for & I question whether he will develop one this year. Bama will be dominant, imposing, but will lose 2 or 3 games because they can't score enough when they play a team that can score.
Team to keep your eye on: Memphis Tigers. A top 25 team IMO. Their QB is the real deal and they retain enough from last year's 10-3 squad to pick up where they left off, not start over. HC is very good IMO and not long for this program but this year, they win a lot of football games. Week 1 against what has to be a crappy Mizzou St. team with a new HC/offensive scheme looks attractive.
BOL to all in 2015!
GW