There are many different approaches to handicapping, especially for college football. For me, preseason preparation and an ability to quantify the conferences in relationship to each other is my strength.
So, my edge is biggest weeks 1-4, non-conference games. And as the teams get into the conference grind my edge diminishes.
On the other hand , I hear many cappers say they don't get too involved until week 4-5, wanna see the teams play a few games. And as the season progresses find those nice situational spots
Just curious if anybody has ever thought about this and has anything to add
There are many different approaches to handicapping, especially for college football. For me, preseason preparation and an ability to quantify the conferences in relationship to each other is my strength.
So, my edge is biggest weeks 1-4, non-conference games. And as the teams get into the conference grind my edge diminishes.
On the other hand , I hear many cappers say they don't get too involved until week 4-5, wanna see the teams play a few games. And as the season progresses find those nice situational spots
Just curious if anybody has ever thought about this and has anything to add
Last season in weeks 1-8 I came out +$ in 7 of 8 weeks, after that I rotated win/lose every other week, and then totally crapped the bed in the final 2 weeks (14 and 15) of the season. I tend to start with less plays the first 3-4 weeks and then hit my stride in the middle with more games and higher wagers. My theory on my late season woes (it's a multi-season trend) is paralysis by analysis... I think I know too much, or I overthink something.... senior days, teams not bowl eligible playing like it's their bowl game.... I may just sit those last 2 weeks out this year.
Weeks 3-4 are tougher.... last year I got burned on Louisville and Michigan... that's when you start to see sharper lines also, and it's when you think a team may be something that it's really not. Those 2 were perfect examples.... Louisville/UK game got me and Akron/Michigan was one of my biggest losses all season, actually 2 of my biggest losses (took UM 2nd half and game). Turned out, Louisville was a good team, but sucked ATS... Michigan just sucked.
Last season in weeks 1-8 I came out +$ in 7 of 8 weeks, after that I rotated win/lose every other week, and then totally crapped the bed in the final 2 weeks (14 and 15) of the season. I tend to start with less plays the first 3-4 weeks and then hit my stride in the middle with more games and higher wagers. My theory on my late season woes (it's a multi-season trend) is paralysis by analysis... I think I know too much, or I overthink something.... senior days, teams not bowl eligible playing like it's their bowl game.... I may just sit those last 2 weeks out this year.
Weeks 3-4 are tougher.... last year I got burned on Louisville and Michigan... that's when you start to see sharper lines also, and it's when you think a team may be something that it's really not. Those 2 were perfect examples.... Louisville/UK game got me and Akron/Michigan was one of my biggest losses all season, actually 2 of my biggest losses (took UM 2nd half and game). Turned out, Louisville was a good team, but sucked ATS... Michigan just sucked.
I hear people talk and say the 1st week or 2 you have an advantage IMO at least for me i usually don't start seeing a ton of tough spreads until November
BWS i hate to be an a$$ but i had Akron in that game
I hear people talk and say the 1st week or 2 you have an advantage IMO at least for me i usually don't start seeing a ton of tough spreads until November
BWS i hate to be an a$$ but i had Akron in that game
Early is when you can find soft lines, esp with a ton of huge spreads. A lot of people bet based on the name of the school, so if you know before game 1 that a big school is gettin too much love you can be ahead of the game. After a few weeks and once conference play starts, the pretenders fade and lines tighten.
Early is when you can find soft lines, esp with a ton of huge spreads. A lot of people bet based on the name of the school, so if you know before game 1 that a big school is gettin too much love you can be ahead of the game. After a few weeks and once conference play starts, the pretenders fade and lines tighten.
I hear people talk and say the 1st week or 2 you have an advantage IMO at least for me i usually don't start seeing a ton of tough spreads until November
BWS i hate to be an a$$ but i had Akron in that game
No harm...good call.
The biggest thing that pissed me off about that game was that Michigan held on to win... lucky fukkers. If I remember Akron had the ball 1st and Goal and couldn't get a TD with 4 tries into the end zone to end the game.
I hear people talk and say the 1st week or 2 you have an advantage IMO at least for me i usually don't start seeing a ton of tough spreads until November
BWS i hate to be an a$$ but i had Akron in that game
No harm...good call.
The biggest thing that pissed me off about that game was that Michigan held on to win... lucky fukkers. If I remember Akron had the ball 1st and Goal and couldn't get a TD with 4 tries into the end zone to end the game.
Last year was the first time since I've been doing this that I did months of preseason research over the summer, and it paid off as I was up. Every year before last year I would be down the first 6 weeks and then go on ridiculous runs the back half of the season. 2 years ago (before I started posting here) I started out something like 9-19, then went on a ridiculous 22-4 run to end the regular season. Last year I started 3-5 on my big plays but finished 13-1.
I think all the research preseason definitely helps, and train is right about soft lines. But no matter what I prefer the last half of the year bc I watch and study teams throughout the year, and as the season goes along you can actually see how a team performs, what they are good and bad at, etc. If you pay attention enough you can find teams thah started the year bad, or they had areas of their team that were exploited but then as the season came along you see they are slowly fixing things and the books haven't caught up to them yet, etc. You also find some really good situational plays as well.
Last year was the first time since I've been doing this that I did months of preseason research over the summer, and it paid off as I was up. Every year before last year I would be down the first 6 weeks and then go on ridiculous runs the back half of the season. 2 years ago (before I started posting here) I started out something like 9-19, then went on a ridiculous 22-4 run to end the regular season. Last year I started 3-5 on my big plays but finished 13-1.
I think all the research preseason definitely helps, and train is right about soft lines. But no matter what I prefer the last half of the year bc I watch and study teams throughout the year, and as the season goes along you can actually see how a team performs, what they are good and bad at, etc. If you pay attention enough you can find teams thah started the year bad, or they had areas of their team that were exploited but then as the season came along you see they are slowly fixing things and the books haven't caught up to them yet, etc. You also find some really good situational plays as well.
From Halloween to National Title in free money.I can do wonders with 2game 6pt teasers on NFL card right in November too.I've been playing since 1989 and got my head beat in so bad I took 2seasons of September.I'm having such bad withdrawals from CFb I'm currently watching a Packer92 game- Tulane vs UL Lafeyette.I was looking for Joe Montana's son at Qb for Green Wave..Septembers have been the roughest month always for me.U can study all summer and it still doesn't decided the unexpected.
From Halloween to National Title in free money.I can do wonders with 2game 6pt teasers on NFL card right in November too.I've been playing since 1989 and got my head beat in so bad I took 2seasons of September.I'm having such bad withdrawals from CFb I'm currently watching a Packer92 game- Tulane vs UL Lafeyette.I was looking for Joe Montana's son at Qb for Green Wave..Septembers have been the roughest month always for me.U can study all summer and it still doesn't decided the unexpected.
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