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Author: [College Football] Topic: NCAA College Football WEEK 1
jdnmoney
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#1
Posted: 7/29/2012 1:17:59 PM
Season W/L: 0-0-0 +/- 0      
Futures W/L: 0-0-0 +/- 0

Previous Thread: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101375357



Regular Season Wins LOCKED IN       
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Utep UNDER 4.5 (-130)
Idaho UNDER 4.5 (-170)
Army UNDER 5.5 (-110)

Ohio UNDER 9.5 (+130)
UNLV UNDER 4.5 (-195)
Duke  OVER 3.5 (-190)



ATS Wagers LOCKED IN
(Week 1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marshall +22              
Washington State +13 (-120)
UCF -21                      



Anticipated Wk 1 line guesses
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Hawaii up to -37
2. Ark St vs Oregon OVER 73
3. La Tech vs A&M OVER 58.5
4. W. Michigan +12.5
5. Oklahoma -30
6. Oklahoma state -52



Current Lines Out as of 7/29/12


http://www.betonline.com/sportsbook#sel
http://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx
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#2
Posted: 7/29/2012 9:47:14 PM

Like Wazzu and Oklahoma....if my local gives me OSU, I'll throw some $$$ down. You seem to think this is one of the top plays, so I'll bite.

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#3
Posted: 7/29/2012 11:53:48 PM
BOL JD!!

It fires me up to see your post! We are getting close!!!
Posted using a mobile device.
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jdnmoney
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#4
Posted: 7/30/2012 12:55:01 AM
 cherokee i love, love Ok St. in wk one, and a local should honor a line put up by 5D, the greek or BETONLINE


BamaPicks   WHOOOOO

cannot wait, 4 more weeks till "Game Week"
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LonghornHoosier
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#5
Posted: 7/30/2012 1:36:24 AM
i like the marshall and UCF picks...I think it is too soon to bet on WSU, but with Tuel and the pirate, I on them @ UNLV on 15 September 2012.   GL
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#6
Posted: 7/30/2012 2:44:09 AM

Like your UCF and Oklahoma picks. GL this year!

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#7
Posted: 7/30/2012 2:45:25 AM
Excuse me... u didnt necessarily pick Oklahoma just yet... Im assuming you like um at -30?
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jdnmoney
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#8
Posted: 7/30/2012 9:42:05 AM
trey:   yep, projecting -30

hoosier: im very high on Wazzu this year...the BYU game will be a 1 score game with each team having a great chance to win...39-33 someone wins.
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jdnmoney
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#9
Posted: 7/30/2012 12:41:10 PM
UNITS

Just going to clarify my strategy on "Units" and what I do, and what I hate being seen in the covers forum in reference to "Units." Countless times i see cappers (Some of who will read this and scowl) who make every bet a 10,20,50 UNIT play. it is ridiculous. ever play is 10 units? then what is the point of the 2 unit wager? or even the 1 unit wager?

In my opinion, the Unit system is here to take raw amounts out of the equation. 50 dollar wagers are alot of money, while 500 is insignificant to others. I am the 1st one to admit that i play about 150 games a year and my standard play is ONE UNIT a play. A MONSTER PLAY will be up to 5x that depending on the situation and very few times a year will be higher than that, if any.

Usually with me you will see 1 or 2 unit wagers. you will NEVER see 20, 50, 100 unit wagers.

It is ridiculous.

The point of this is because i forgot to post my UNIT amount for the wagers that i have locked in. so here it is.

The Season RSW wagers are two units each. If they are +money i am risking two units. if they are juiced, i am risking enough to WIN two units.

as far as the WK 1 plays, all are to WIN 1 unit.


thank you,


JDNMONEY

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#10
Posted: 7/30/2012 12:47:55 PM
jdn, i noticed u got duke over 3.5 wins, i think they SHOULD be able to start 3-1, then they would have to knock off either, virginia,nc, wafe forest.....dont think they stand much of a chance in the other games..i would be concerned that if they dont start 3-1, it could be very difficult for them to win 4 games...how many wins u think the blue devils finish with??
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jdnmoney
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#11
Posted: 7/30/2012 1:02:38 PM
raff: Duke will be vastly improved.

vs. FIU                       TOSS UP
@ Stanford                LOSS
NC Central                 WIN
Memphis                  
WIN
@ WF                      TOSS UP
Virginia                    TOSS UP

@ VT                        LOSS
UNC                         TOSS UP
@ Fla St                  
LOSS
Clemson                   LOSS
GT                            LOSS
Miami                       TOSS UP



IF they beat FIU, which I expect them to do, they only need to win 1 out of 4 toss up games. they have a very realistic shot to beat wake, uVa, UNC ,


i project 4-8 or 5-7  
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#12
Posted: 7/30/2012 1:14:16 PM

JDN

cant wait for the season to start

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alekomtz
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#13
Posted: 7/30/2012 4:02:26 PM
Bol this season! How did you go last season
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#14
Posted: 7/30/2012 4:41:16 PM

who make every bet a 10,20,50 UNIT play. it is ridiculous. ever play is 10 units? then what is the point of the 2 unit wager? or even the 1 unit wager?

bingo...even the ones wagering 2 or 3 units on nearly every game are only fooling some of the sheep...only thing achieved by wagering 2u on every game instead of calling it 1 and increasing the dollar per unit is doubling the units won or lost with no change in actual profit..you could take 2 cappers one using 2u and one with 1u per game....both go 100-70 W/L flat wagers identical picks... one finishing +23u and +46u for the other...you ask the sheep who had the better season they would say +46 dude......that's why they're sheep I guess

like a few of those, would be nice if that LT-A&M total really is 58.5......BOL this year

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jdnmoney
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#15
Posted: 7/30/2012 4:41:30 PM
alekomtz
z:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101202797

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101189238


83-60 ATS 58.05%
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jdnmoney
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#16
Posted: 7/30/2012 4:44:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

who make every bet a 10,20,50 UNIT play. it is ridiculous. ever play is 10 units? then what is the point of the 2 unit wager? or even the 1 unit wager?

bingo...even the ones wagering 2 or 3 units on nearly every game are only fooling some of the sheep...only thing achieved by wagering 2u on every game instead of calling it 1 and increasing the dollar per unit is doubling the units won or lost with no change in actual profit..you could take 2 cappers one using 2u and one with 1u per game....both go 100-70 W/L flat wagers identical picks... one finishing +23u and +46u for the other...you ask the sheep who had the better season they would say +46 dude......that's why they're sheep I guess

like a few of those, would be nice if that LT-A&M total really is 58.5......BOL this year




everything you said was spot on with this post. ive been thinking this for years and I do not partake in this madness.

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#17
Posted: 7/30/2012 4:53:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

who make every bet a 10,20,50 UNIT play. it is ridiculous. ever play is 10 units? then what is the point of the 2 unit wager? or even the 1 unit wager?

bingo...even the ones wagering 2 or 3 units on nearly every game are only fooling some of the sheep...only thing achieved by wagering 2u on every game instead of calling it 1 and increasing the dollar per unit is doubling the units won or lost with no change in actual profit..you could take 2 cappers one using 2u and one with 1u per game....both go 100-70 W/L flat wagers identical picks... one finishing +23u and +46u for the other...you ask the sheep who had the better season they would say +46 dude......that's why they're sheep I guess

like a few of those, would be nice if that LT-A&M total really is 58.5......BOL this year


Could not of said it better myself. 1 unit should be 1% of someones bankroll. If someone is betting 10% of their bankroll per play they are lying or going to the poor house soon. 
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jdnmoney
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#18
Posted: 7/30/2012 4:57:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fsutomahawk:


Could not of said it better myself. 1 unit should be 1% of someones bankroll. If someone is betting 10% of their bankroll per play they are lying or going to the poor house soon. 


has nothing to do with bankroll or percentage of bankroll wagered.

this has to do with every play being a 3, 5, 10 unit play.

it throws their overall units won out of wack and inflates their profits.

betting bankroll %'s are important as well, but it is an entirely different issue.
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#19
Posted: 7/31/2012 8:57:09 AM
Thanks jdn! All the plays are 1 unit unless you specify right?
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jdnmoney
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#20
Posted: 7/31/2012 8:28:55 PM
LOCKED IN (Week 1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marshall +22              
Washington State +13 (-120)
UCF -21                      

Texas A&M vs La Tech Over 60
Oklahoma -30
ARK ST vs OREGON OVER 65     MONSTER PLAY   3 Units

SMU +13
USC -39
North Texas +45.5

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#21
Posted: 7/31/2012 10:18:24 PM
like and leaning your way with all selections  jd would check the weather with the over on the tech   a & m  game because it;s been like over 100 everyday and 112 with the heat index,, not sure what time the games kicks off but  heat could cause cramping and maybe slow down things .....hot weather and conditioning could play a part in these opening games maybe.......
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jdnmoney
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#22
Posted: 7/31/2012 10:58:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UL-LAFAYETTEKID:

like and leaning your way with all selections  jd would check the weather with the over on the tech   a & m  game because it;s been like over 100 everyday and 112 with the heat index,, not sure what time the games kicks off but  heat could cause cramping and maybe slow down things .....hot weather and conditioning could play a part in these opening games maybe.......


UL-Lafayette:

heat might be a factor but i think In my opinion that would increase scoring as defenses are more likely to get tired. LaTech has plenty of advantage conditioning wise as they should play up tempo and very fast the entire game.

texas a&m will play fast too. game will be 630 PM local time. should be no hotter than 75

might see over 150 plays in this one. im calling for this to soar over the total,

42-37 someone wins
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jdnmoney
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#23
Posted: 7/31/2012 11:18:23 PM
Very serious consideration given to
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UMASS +27.5
EMU v Ball St. over 54
San Jose vs Stanford over 54

**Oklahoma state -52 (still waiting on that one) will be a MONSTER PLAY if under 50

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#24
Posted: 7/31/2012 11:31:47 PM

He DID say he would pay to see LSU cover a 40 point spread. I definately wont be laying no friggin 46 points LOL BOL with N Tx JDN Im interested to see how that one turns out.

I see you locked in Oklahoma at 30. I like it a lot

 

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#25
Posted: 7/31/2012 11:36:37 PM
BOL trey
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