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Author: [College Football] Topic: Get ready for the football season with these simple systems:
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#26
Posted: 7/28/2012 9:37:05 AM

I'm not sure you're referring to the same one, I was talking about the revenge after losing by 48 or more..none of those sound familiar as 48 pt loss the prior year...you may be talking about another one

In the NCAA, revenging previous season road loss is particularly effective for teams that lost that game in the first 9 weeks and by 48 pts or more (119-66 ATS).

Just curious, are you planning to post the weekly college games that fit under any of the system plays since you're tracking them anyway?...although not much on systems myself since they change over time, that might help some of the people trying to figure out which ones apply that week rather than 100 people trying to figure out what applies that week...plus it would prove that after the fact trends averaging 65-70% as a whole can be applied before the games for a season or two and still obtain similar percentages...of course each individual trend will be better or worse in a year however when using all of them combined, in theory the overall percentage should be similar...if most of the trends remain the same from this point forward
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#27
Posted: 7/28/2012 11:59:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

I'm not sure you're referring to the same one, I was talking about the revenge after losing by 48 or more..none of those sound familiar as 48 pt loss the prior year...you may be talking about another one

In the NCAA, revenging previous season road loss is particularly effective for teams that lost that game in the first 9 weeks and by 48 pts or more (119-66 ATS).

Just curious, are you planning to post the weekly college games that fit under any of the system plays since you're tracking them anyway?...although not much on systems myself since they change over time, that might help some of the people trying to figure out which ones apply that week rather than 100 people trying to figure out what applies that week...plus it would prove that after the fact trends averaging 65-70% as a whole can be applied before the games for a season or two and still obtain similar percentages...of course each individual trend will be better or worse in a year however when using all of them combined, in theory the overall percentage should be similar...if most of the trends remain the same from this point forward



Wake lost 14-62 @ Maryland in 2010.
Purdue lost 0-49 @ OHST in 2010.
Kansas lost 7-55 @ Baylor in 2010.
Iowa State lost 0-52 @ Oklahoma in 2010.

I will post systems and trends daily thruout the season and once the season starts I will highlight the plays that come up from my systems. Not all the games that fit a particular system will be my official plays, because I use other tools as well, follow the injuries and so on...
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#28
Posted: 7/28/2012 3:53:16 PM
I would be a little cautious of those, some of those go back to when the NFL was playing 14 games a season. Some of these teams have domes now, even the NCAA has added more teams. I would be more inclined to apply a trend that was 4 or 5 years old than going back that far. Even the revenge can be skewed with a team that won 10 or 12 games that year and now is winning 4 to 6 games. If you knew the situation of each win and loss, then maybe you could apply it. How many of those games were played on the last week of the season? Was the game meaningful, or did the team rest players for the playoffs? There are too many questions to answer to consider a trend like that. 
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#29
Posted: 7/29/2012 1:21:47 AM
Sunday System of the day:

NFL teams with 6-13 days of rest are 14-44 ATS if they won their last game as home faves of 8 points or more against a team winning more than 65% of its games. Last season these teams went 0-3 ATS.

In the NCAAF in weeks 10 and later, teams that played their last game as dogs of less than 15 points against a team winning more than 90% of its games are 59-121 ATS.
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#30
Posted: 7/29/2012 8:09:15 AM
thanks, I had forgotten MD could beat anyone by 48, BOL
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#31
Posted: 7/30/2012 1:58:58 AM
NFL teams winning their last game by 28 or less are 0-19 ATS if they led by more than 17 after the first and at the halftime.

Stay away from NCAA dogs that lost by 59 or more as +30.5 or bigger dogs last week as they do not recover quickly enough (15-37 ATS)
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#32
Posted: 7/30/2012 6:10:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WinAllSports:

NFL teams winning their last game by 28 or less are 0-19 ATS if they led by more than 17 after the first and at the halftime. 



man that is a really odd trend... probably lucky to find one per season, but still amazing that it would be on a 19-0 run...
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#33
Posted: 7/31/2012 8:40:02 AM
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#34
Posted: 7/31/2012 12:59:43 PM
Winless NFL faves of 3 points or less in weeks 3 & 4 are 3-25 ATS against teams with at least 1 win.

Winless NCAA faves are 10-38 ATS in weeks 6 and later against teams with at least 1 win.

Stay away from winless favorites.
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#35
Posted: 8/1/2012 1:32:33 AM
Unbeaten NFL teams are 10-30 ATS on the road against unbeaten teams in weeks 3-4 if they have at least a regular 6 days rest.


Unbeaten road favorites of 3-7.5 points are 43-83 ATS against other unbeaten teams in the NCAA.
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#36
Posted: 8/2/2012 1:30:09 AM
NFL teams plying their third straight road game are 19-40 ATS if they won 1-4 straight games. If they won only their last game they are 5-24 SU and 8-21 ATS.

NCAA teams playing 3rd straight road game, not favored by 21 or more, are 6-30 ATS if they won last game by 16 or less and covered the spread as favorites.
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#37
Posted: 8/3/2012 1:57:09 AM
In the NFL, teams winning more than 10 straight are 11-29 ATS. They are 0-9 ATS winning 14 or more straight.

Teams losing 7-13 straight are 99-59 ATS in NFL.


NCAA teams after their first loss of the season in games 7 or later are 11-32 ATS at home if their first loss wasnt on the road.
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#38
Posted: 8/3/2012 3:07:47 PM
Weekend systems (wont be around Saturday and Sunday):

NFL teams that were favored last week and won that game by a margin that was bigger than the actual Vegas total set up for the game ate 28-4 for the over the following week. This system is perfect (32-0) in 6 pts teasers.

In the NCAA, road dogs of more than 15 points are 16-0 for the over if total is higher than 40 and they play on short rest.

Excellent NFL system:

Teams that won by more than 7 pts last week as home dogs, revenging a loss of 20-34 points are 1-30 ATS and SU.


NCAA teams that won their last game as home dogs of 7.5 to 13.5 points revenging a loss of 44 points or more are 0-16 SU and ATS losing all but one game by at least a TD.
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#39
Posted: 8/5/2012 3:54:18 AM
NCAA teams after two straight OT games are 2-13 ATS if playing two weeks in a row on regular rest. Teams after two straight multiple OT periods games are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS.



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#40
Posted: 8/6/2012 11:28:56 AM
NFL teams are 55-21 ATS after losing by 3 or more despite leading by more than 10 pts after the first quarter.

NCAA teams are 66-35 ATS trying to revenge a loss in which their opponent scored 69 points or more.
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#41
Posted: 8/6/2012 6:06:35 PM
NFL dogs of more than 2 points are 55-20 ATS after a loss of more than 30 points, trying to revenge a loss of more than 3 points.


NCAA faves going for revenge after scoring 55-66 points are 92-47 ATS as long as they are not on the road. Last season this system was 11-0 and in 2010 it was 7-1. So, last two years this system is 17-1 ATS. These teams are good as underdogs regardles where they play as they are 93-59 ATS.
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#42
Posted: 8/8/2012 12:30:31 AM
WEDNESDAY....

NFL teams with at least 4 days of rest, not favored by more than 3 pts are 37-9 ATS if they lost last game as dogs while trailing by 35-43 points after the third.

NCAA faves of 10.5 to 20.5 pts after a conference home dog revenge win are 23-47 ATS. And if that game is a conference game against an opponent they already beaten last season, they are 0-20 ATS if favored by less than 16.
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#43
Posted: 8/9/2012 6:07:00 AM
Another small but effective system for NFL (Thursday):

thursday

Road NFL favorites on regular rest after a road dog win of less than 7 points in a different time zone are 0-17 both straight up and against the vegas line. Small system, yet very effective. Last season Baltimore was in this situation when they were small faves in Seattle and lost straight up.


NCAA road & neutral faves after a dog win are 16-44 ATS against another team of a dog win. Pittsburgh went to Rutgers last season in this same spot and lost 34-10 as a TD favorite.

p.s. my best systems can be found on twitter during the season
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#44
Posted: 8/9/2012 10:13:48 AM
What NCAA teams (major conf) lost by 48 points last year ? Should be easy to isolate those spots.
Not sure why people dont like this info, thats all it is.....
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#45
Posted: 8/10/2012 7:55:17 AM
FRIDAY::

NFL teams on 6- days of rest after at least 2 straight ATS losses and no more than 2 straight SU losses are 22-1 ATS if their last game was and ATS loss of 32 pts or more. 16 straight winners for this season since 2001 including 3 last season.

Rare NCAA system: Teams that lost last game ATS by more than 53 pts and the game before that by at least 10 ATS points are 0-14 ATS losing ATS by more than 2 TD per game.

twitter: winallsports

but i will post majority of my systems here as well...just cant guarantee that i will have the time to post every system here during the season.
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#46
Posted: 8/11/2012 1:26:29 AM
Saturday:

NFL underdogs and small favorites of 3 points or less are 1-29 straight up and 1-29 against the line if they have the better record than thier opponent after a home dog win of 8-24 points last week.

NCAA dogs of 17 pts or more are 0-25 SU and 4-21 ATS if they won at home by less than 25 as small faves of 3.5 or less or dogs of less than 20 last week.
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#47
Posted: 8/12/2012 11:27:30 AM
In week 1 NCAA teams that won 3 games last year are 16-37 ATS against teams that won 5-6 games last year.
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#48
Posted: 8/13/2012 1:24:08 PM
-1.5 to -3.5 NCAA faves are 0-25 against the line against teams that just lost as road dogs, if they have no more than 2 weeks of rest after a conference road dog win by 4-10 points.
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#49
Posted: 8/13/2012 2:34:43 PM

Good info...interesting ATS trends.  Trouble with systems is the money management end of things..........in order to maximize the results of a given system on paper, you must pull the trigger everytime a play arises, or else the profitability is shot.

Basically, what I am saying is that there are some good trends in there, but what is the maximum number of consecutive losses within a given trend?  What is the max exposure in terms of drawdowns?

If in fact you have 50-60 setups that you look for, how do you approach you money management for weekends where setups are sparce, as to weekends with an abundance of plays?

Not trying to break balls here at all, just curious on how you make these systems a success in terms of profitability.  Interesting thread.
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#50
Posted: 8/13/2012 6:53:01 PM
Here is the problem with "system bettors"

1) you can sift through back data with what ever parameters are needed to spit out a correlation you are looking for which doesnt necessarily make it applicable to the unplayed game coming up. two different "systems" can support the opposite teams in the same game. FOR ANY GAME IT IS POSSIBLE TO REVERSE ENGINEER "SYSTEMS" FROM BACK DATA TO SUPPORT EITHER SIDE! There are so many systems posted above, there will be many opposite picks for the same games, so now you have to "handicapp" which system is better and more statistically valid, which defeats the purpose of using systems - that you dont have to handicap

2) there is no way to easily prove or disprove all of the numbers posted are valid, correct or made up. in fact i have a hard time believing you personally sifted through years of databases of data either manually or with a computer program to isolate all these trends and prove their statistical validity in makin future projections

3) classic "system" touts have proven themselves to be full of garbage over and over again. mark lawernce and big al are two examples. week after week, these douches put out their "87% angle of the week" and it never hits even close to what their reverse engineered systems predict.... which means they either fall into category 1 or 2
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