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[College Football] Topic: Freak Pics!!! (Bowl Edition) |
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jimmydafreak |
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#101 Posted: 12/27/2011 11:54:47 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:
Im all over FSU Jimmy.
FSU Defense is too much for N.D
I agree Boom.
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pemalibongol212 |
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#102 Posted: 12/28/2011 12:23:02 AM  |
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kaboom03 |
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#103 Posted: 12/28/2011 3:27:25 AM
I also like the over in the Toledo game. |
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juggernaut74 |
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#104 Posted: 12/28/2011 12:06:57 PM
GL the rest of the way.
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DOVJAK |
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#105 Posted: 12/28/2011 12:50:44 PM  |
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jimmydafreak |
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#106 Posted: 12/28/2011 12:59:32 PM Adding:
Toledo TT OVER 37 - EVEN (1 Unit)
*** Note: I would bet at least two units on OVER the Toledo TT, but BM won't take anything over 1
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Heatseeker |
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#107 Posted: 12/28/2011 1:01:35 PM   |
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Biscuiteater1 |
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#108 Posted: 12/28/2011 1:08:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak: I'm going to go ahead and pulle the trigger on this one now.
Notre Dame vs. Florida State -2.5 (Hook) *** Best Bet ***
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Biscuiteater1 |
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#109 Posted: 12/28/2011 1:09:49 PM |
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jimmydafreak |
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#110 Posted: 12/28/2011 1:28:54 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaboom03:
What are your thoughts on Wed games? I like Toledo and Cal. Your thoughts??
I also like the over in the Toledo game.
I am pretty confident that Toledo and Texas are the better teams, and that both will probably win their games, but I'm not real comfortable laying 3.5 with Texas or 4.5 with Toledo. The only wager I have found with any value that I like so far is Toledo TT OVER 37 at even money.
Texas vs. California
On paper these team are statistically even across the board - offense, defense and ST. The QB play for both teams is horrible, but you'd have to give a slight edge to Zack Maynard with Cal.
I think both teams are about equally motivated, and I'm not a big fan of either coach. I like Texas to win a close low-scoring game because I think they just have the better athletes across the board. Cal, however, has more senior leadership. Whenever the words "close low-scoring game" appear in succession, I almost always favor the points.
I really can't play either side here because the odds tell me that the team that wins the game outright usually covers the spread as well. That compels me to lean toward Texas.
On the other hand, as I said above, I think laying over a FG in a game that I think will be close and relatively low-scoring is just throwing mud at the wall - betting just for the sake of betting.
Unless the line drops back down to 3 I just can't wager any hard-earned money on this game. But if I did, at the current line of 3.5 I would lean ever so slighty to Cal and the points.
I think the total number is pretty sharp as well. But, if I can snag UNDER 24 (1st Half) for less than -110, I will pull the trigger on that.
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jimmydafreak |
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#111 Posted: 12/28/2011 1:59:27 PM Toledo vs. Air Force
To continue with my thoughts from above, I am much more inclined to lay 4.5 points (the current line) with Toledo than I am 3.5 with Texas because this game definitely won't be low-scoring. Thus, the 4.5 points has much less value.
Toledo is such a scary team to bet on because their defense is just dreadful, and asking an already dreadful defense to play disciplined, assignment sound defense is like asking Lindsay Lohan not to be a druken person . . . hard to imagine. And as we all know, if you don't play disciplined, assignment sound defense against Air Force's triple option attack, they will steam-roll you.
Obviously if you noticed my Toledo TT OVER 37 play you can tell that I'm pretty confident Air Force's defense won't have much success in slowing Toledo's offense down. So where does that leave us?
In the end I just think Toledo is the overall better team here, and will be able to get a few more defensive stops than Air Force's defense. Accordingly I think Toledo will win and cover this game. The problem is I just can't bring myself to bet on Toledo's horrendous defense.
Initially I wasn't very interested in betting OVER a hefty 71-point total, but now that the total has dropped down to 69.5, I will pull the trigger on the OVER.
*** Note: the total has apparently dropped all day over weather concerns - primarily high winds. I have lived most of my life in the Washington DC area and the friends I have talked to have indicated to me that while the wind is definitely blowing, they don't think it's severe enough to drastically effect scoring output in this game. I will lean on my on-the-ground, amateur weather spotters and play OVER the 69.5 total.
Toledo vs. Airforce OVER 69.5 - (Small 2-Unit Play)
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jimmydafreak |
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#112 Posted: 12/28/2011 2:02:42 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:
FSU speed upfront should cause a world of trouble for N.D. offense.
I agree 100%: but not just their speed, their overall athleticism.
Best of luck to you this bowl season BE!!!
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jimmydafreak |
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#113 Posted: 12/28/2011 2:06:00 PM Toledo has dropped down to -3 and the total has dropped another half of a point. It's down to 69 now.
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wizzy69 |
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#114 Posted: 12/28/2011 2:16:23 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
Toledo has dropped down to -3 and the total has dropped another half of a point. It's down to 69 now.
this game opened up @ -3 |
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jimmydafreak |
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#115 Posted: 12/28/2011 2:18:54 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by wizzy69:
this game opened up @ -3
I know.. I have Toledo -3 in my confidence pools. The line, however, had been 4.5 all morning. That's a very precipitous 1.5-point drop in a very short period of time.
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MTFN50 |
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#116 Posted: 12/28/2011 2:27:30 PM |
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wizzy69 |
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#117 Posted: 12/28/2011 2:33:24 PM |
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jimmydafreak |
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#118 Posted: 12/28/2011 3:24:55 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by MTFN50:
what worries me is that Toledo is terrible non conf. AirF in general has won and lost against better teams , nonconf play Toledos 1-4-1 ATS non conf worries me Plus toledos head coach ditching on them .I took under 70 yesterday AF loves the run and eat clock game Falcons31-28
I disagree. They would have beaten Syracuse straight up had it not been for the most shady officiating call of the college football season. I also watched every snap of the Boise game, and had they not self-destructed on many occasions, I actually thought they would have had a legit shot of winning that game outright.
The Ohio State game was much the same story. Ohio State needed a defensive stop in the waning seconds of the game to preserve a slim 5-point victory for the Buckeyes. And like the Boise game, they let the Ohio State game get away from them primarly through self-inflicted errors. Toledo went on to clean up a lot of their early season blunders as the season wore on. So I actually think Toledo's out-of-conference schedule supports a play on Toldeo, not the other way around.
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jimmydafreak |
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#119 Posted: 12/28/2011 3:54:07 PM I said I would pulle the trigger on Texas if the line dropped down to 3. Well it did. So . . . here goes.
California vs. Texas -2.5 (Hook)
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jimmydafreak |
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#120 Posted: 12/28/2011 3:58:26 PM Here is a recap on my pending plays:
Toledo TT OVER 37 - EVEN (1 Unit Play)
Toledo vs. Airforce OVER 69.5 (Small 2-Unit Play)
California vs. Texas -2.5 (Hook) (Small 2-Unit Play)
Notre Dame vs. Florida State -2.5 (Hook) *** Best Bet ***
Best of luck to all!!!
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jimmydafreak |
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#121 Posted: 12/28/2011 6:21:37 PM No 2nd half play for me in the Toledo/Air Force game. Although I lean OVER 35.5, I'm just not willing to lay -115 to get it. Gonna ride out my Toledo TT OVER 37 and OVER 69.5 for the game.
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#122 Posted: 12/28/2011 6:47:45 PM
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#123 Posted: 12/28/2011 7:13:20 PM
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#124 Posted: 12/28/2011 7:39:14 PM
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jimmydafreak |
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#125 Posted: 12/28/2011 8:36:36 PM Now you guys see why I just couldn't pull the trigger on Toledo's defense. I played on their offense and cashed nicely.
Toledo TT OVER 37 - EVEN (1 Unit Play)
Toledo vs. Airforce OVER 69.5 (Small 2-Unit Play)
Congrats to those who were on the OVER with me!!!
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