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Author: [College Football] Topic: NCAAF: Bowl Games
Lar1212 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 12/5/2011 7:12:41 AM

I've had a pretty average year in NCAAF this year. Last year, however, was when I made my money. Let's repeat...

NCAAF Overall YTD: 134-127-12 (-$151.70)

NCAAF Total YTD: 44-31-3 (+$405.80)

NCAAF Live In-Game YTD: 2-0 (+$75)

NCAAF TT YTD: 7-5-1 (+$35)

NCAAF 1H YTD: 1-2 (+$3)

NCAAF 2H YTD: 1-1 (+$0)

NCAAF Parlay YTD: 1-2 (-$68.72)

NCAAF Team YTD: 70-67-8 (-$150.07)

NCAAF Teaser YTD: 8-10 (-$171.71)

NCAAF ML YTD: 0-9 (-$280)

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#2
Posted: 12/9/2011 1:10:06 PM

I'm not sure where I will count this play, but I'm posting it in both NFL and NCAAF for now.

It's a 7.5 point teaser (ties win)... 2 NCAAF, 1 NFL.

(2 units) Navy PK, NAVY/ARMY UNDER 65.0, DEN +4 [NFL] (+127)

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#3
Posted: 12/9/2011 3:28:06 PM

Best of Luck

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#4
Posted: 12/9/2011 3:45:07 PM
GL Lar
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#5
Posted: 12/12/2011 10:09:47 AM

New Mexico Bowl (Albuqurque, NM):

Temple vs Wyoming

Line: Temple -7

Total: 47.5

Temple brings in a one-dimensional offense. However, they bring in a very tough defense that does not allow points. I think a lot of people are going to be on Temple because of their game against Penn State. However, Wyoming could very well cover this game. More importantly, I think Temple's defense will slow down Wyoming, while the offense pounds the ball. This game is screaming under.

PLAY: UNDER 47.5

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#6
Posted: 12/12/2011 10:16:06 AM

Idaho Potato Bowl (Boise, ID):

Utah State vs Ohio

Line: Utah State -2.5

Total: 57.5

Most people have seen Ohio at least a couple of times this season because of all the mid-week MAC games. However, Utah State has quietly had a great second-half to their season. Utah State's rushing attack behind Turbin has been bruising, while Ohio has been getting the big plays from Brazill. I think this game could be back-and-forth and that has all the makings for an over.

PLAY: OVER 57.5

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#7
Posted: 12/12/2011 10:22:33 AM

New Orleans Bowl (New Orleans, LA):

UL-Lafayette vs San Diego State

Line: San Diego State -4.5

Total: 58.5

Being a Sun Belt alumni, I have seen ULL play for many years. They have an up-tempo pass-first offense that keeps defenses on their toes. On the other hand, San Diego State brings in a predominently run-first offense. However, ULL has finally broken through to their first bowl game in four decades. Plus, add in the fact that this is virtually a home game for them playing in a bowl game just a short two-hour drive down IH 10. I like for the crowd to help propel the Ragin' Cajuns in this emotional game for them.

PLAY: ULL +4.5

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#8
Posted: 12/12/2011 12:31:50 PM
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#9
Posted: 12/12/2011 1:22:59 PM

St. Petersburg Bowl (St. Petersburg, FL):

Florida International University vs Marshall

Line: FIU -4

Total: 48.5

Again, FIU is another Sun Belt team that I'm fairly familiar with this year. They were on TV a couple of times this year and hopefully everyone saw the big play ability of T.Y. Hilton. Marshall seems to be clearly outmatched in this game in terms of points per game, points allowed per game, total yards per game, rushing yards per game, and passing yards per game. I think I'll side with the favorite playing in their home state only laying 4 points.

LEAN: FIU -4

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#10
Posted: 12/12/2011 1:28:23 PM

Poinsettia Bowl (San Diego, CA):

Louisiana Tech vs Texas Christian University

Line: TCU -10.5

Total: 55.5

Most bettors are going to play the favorite, TCU, without thinking. However, Louisiana Tech is a feisty team that is 10-2 ATS with a three-headed rushing attack. If one gets hurt, tired, or is not playing well, they have two other capable backs. TCU's strength is rushing defense--so this will be an interesting matchup. However, TCU is 6-6 ATS this season. They have had hugely inflated lines all season and barely won some of their games, let alone covered the spread. I bet against TCU in Week# 1 and took Baylor +3. I think I'll bet against them to end their season too. I'm going to wait to make this play just before kickoff to allow TCU backers/public to raise this up in my favor. I'm hoping for LA Tech +14 to +17.

LEAN: LA Tech +10.5

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#11
Posted: 12/12/2011 1:36:54 PM

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV):

Arizona State vs Boise State

Line: Boise State -14

Total: 66

Upon first glance, I thought this would be an easy blowout by Boise State. But, then I thought about it and 14 points is a lot in a bowl game. Looking at the numbers, the two teams are surprisingly evenly-matched. First, keep in mind that Arizona State is playing in the PAC-12 Conference, whereas Boise State is playing in the Mountain West Conference this year. Boise State averages 483 yards per game while Arizona State averages 451 yards per game. Surprisingly, Arizona State has a higher passing yards per game behind Osweiler (321) than Moore and Boise State (314) but that could be inflated to Arizona State passing to catch up late in games, while Boise State runs at the end of their blowouts. The most interesting stat is that Boise State averages 43 points per game while Arizona State averages 34 points per game. Something tells me that this game could be closer than people think...

LEAN: Arizona State +14 -AND- OVER 66

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#12
Posted: 12/13/2011 8:02:49 AM

Hawaii Bowl (Honolulu, HI):

Nevada vs Southern Mississippi

Line: USM -6

Total: N/A

First, why is there no total on this game yet? It makes me wonder what the linesmakers are up to--probably no good. I don't know what it is yet, officially, but I will probably be on the over. The betting public will probably jump on USM because of their big win on TV against unbeaten Houston for the C-USA Championship. However, both of these teams can play up-tempo and have the offenses (and lack of defenses) to score points quickly.

LEAN: OVER?

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#13
Posted: 12/13/2011 8:08:18 AM

Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA):

North Carolina vs Missouri

Line: Missouri -5

Total: 52.5

Missouri quietly had a great end to the season winning their final three games, while UNC collapsed at the end of their season, losing four of their last six games. Missouri comes in with a lot of confidence and an offense, predominately Franklin at quarterback, that can score points quickly when they are on their A-game. The line is a bit too high, but I still like Missouri. Add in the fact that the game is only a short drive from Columbia and I'm leaning Tigers. I'm hoping for this line to go down, but I doubt it will...

LEAN: Missouri -5

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#14
Posted: 12/13/2011 8:15:32 AM

Little Caesars Bowl (Detroit, MI):

Western Michigan vs Purdue

Line: Purdue -2.5

Total: 60

Purdue limped into bowl eligibility by beating Indiana at the end of the season behind a first-year head coach. That just does not sound like a great success story. Meanwhile, Western Michigan had a great season, led by Carder at quarterback. Western Michigan boasts one of the top-ten passing yards per game  and top-twenty points per game offense, while Purdue is middle-of-the-pack in terms of points scored per game. I'll take the "home team" here and the points. I'm hoping for at least a field goal though...

LEAN: Western Michigan +2.5

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#15
Posted: 12/13/2011 8:22:23 AM

Belk Bowl (Charlotte, NC):

Louisville vs North Carolina State

Line: NC State -3

Total: 44.5

What a weird matchup. A near-BCS contender in Louisville against a feisty NC State squad that had a huge upset over Clemson that sparked the second-half of their season. I like Glennon and the Wolfpack, but more importantly the Wolfpack defense has been great lately. As much as I like NC State in this game, this game just screams under for some reason...

LEAN: NC State -3 -AND- UNDER 44.5

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#16
Posted: 12/13/2011 8:29:47 AM

Military Bowl (Washington, DC):

Air Force vs Toledo

Line: Toledo -3

Total: 69.5

I love watching the option. However, even though they are a relatively high-scoring option-based team, it's hard to consider the over in this game because of that time-control offense. Jefferson does execute the option well in this offense and his play will be crucial for the Falcons. Toledo barely missed the MAC championship, but had a great season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Most bettors will recall their 63-60 loss in the shootout against Northern Illinois. But, don't be fooled... the option when run to perfection is built to play "keep away" for good reason. "You can't win when you don't have the ball."

LEAN: UNDER 69.5

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#17
Posted: 12/13/2011 8:36:54 AM

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA):

California vs Texas

Line: Texas -3

Total: 47.5

The second bowl game in Qualcomm Stadium in a week showcases the Pac-12 versus the Big XII. Cal comes in on a good second half to their season, while Texas limped to the finish line, but got a big rivalry win against Texas A&M on a last-second field goal. However, the big question mark in this game will be the play by the Texas quarterback(s). They are horrible. They are too young and inexperienced to put much hope into on their own. The Longhorn defense and the 19th-ranked rushing attack will have to keep Texas in this one for them to have a chance.

LEAN: California +3

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#18
Posted: 12/13/2011 8:43:43 AM

Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando, FL):

Notre Dame vs Florida State

Line: FSU -3

Total: 46.5

If this game was being played about a decade ago, this would be a great game. However, this game just doesn't really interest me much. I think the big question will be about Notre Dame's quarterback situation. I think Rees is the better signal-caller, but he got pulled in their last game. Regardless of who is taking snaps, Floyd will have to make some big plays to put pressure off of the offense. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are playing in their home state with one of the top scoring defenses in the country, ranked fourth nationally. That could be crucial considering the turnover woes that Notre Dame has had this year.

LEAN: FSU -3

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#19
Posted: 12/13/2011 8:53:10 AM

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX):

Washington vs Baylor

Line: Baylor -9

Total: 78.5

Ah, the big game that I've been waiting for... just not as big as I was hoping for. My Bears have had a great season that most of the public has not had much of an opportunity to experience. Baylor has easily had their best season in a couple of decades. Art Briles has truly led this team to have one big thing that they've lacked since Grant Teaff was carried off the field in his last game against Texas--confidence. This team finally believes they can win. Combine that with the newest Heisman Trophy winner in All-American quarterback Griffin III and this offense has the capability to put up points in a heartbeat. One of the big playmakers that America will finally get to see is his playmaker on the outside, Wright. Both have blazing track-star speed. On top of that, add in Ganaway's ability to gash up the middle, which has kept defenses off-balance too and the Huskies could be in for a long day. The Huskies can score points too, however, I just don't see them keeping up in a shootout with Baylor. Baylor will rout them and prove that they should have been in a BCS bowl. If Griffin III decides to return (which I highly doubt he will), I'm going to call it now. They will play for the Big XII championship and maybe even go to a BCS bowl.

LEAN: Baylor -9 -AND- OVER 78.5

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#20
Posted: 12/13/2011 8:59:44 AM

Armed Forces Bowl (Dallas, TX):

Brigham Young vs Tulsa

Line: BYU -2.5

Total: 55.5

I'm surprised that SMU didn't get to play in their home stadium. But, Tulsa is the regional draw in this matchup. The Golden Hurricanes have had a great season. Their only losses came to top-ten teams at the time of their games: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston. That's great competition that will get them ready for the Cougars. BYU brings in a similar style team that focuses on a balanced attack that centers around the running game. This game could be very close... I'll take the points and the team with the better competition on their schedule. Let's hope we can get at least a field goal...

LEAN: Tulsa +2.5

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#21
Posted: 12/13/2011 9:05:20 AM

Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx, NY):

Rutgers vs Iowa State

Line: Rutgers -1.5

Total: 44.5

Rutgers has played to a quiet 8-4 season, while Iowa State limped into bowl eligibility at 6-6 after losing their last two games. However, most people will remember the nationally televised upset of Oklahoma State that most likely cost them a BCS bowl game. However, Iowa State has been very Jekyll and Hyde. Sometimes, they play hard, whereas other games it looks like they just go through the motions and struggle on both sides of the ball. I think Rutgers has the ability to win this game in a slug-fest.

Lean: Rutgers -1.5 -AND- UNDER 44.5

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#22
Posted: 12/13/2011 9:24:09 AM

Music Bowl (Nashville, TN):

Mississippi State vs Wake Forest

Line: Miss. State -7

Total: 48

This game features two 6-6 teams that had up-and-down seasons. The Bulldogs had a great goal-line stand in one game to being blown out in others. Of course, they were playing in the SEC. Wake Forest has had similar successes here and there. I think the Demon Deacon's passing attack and little bit of RB Pendergrass will be enough to pull out the cover. They may even win this game straight up with the crowd being a factor in this one.

LEAN: Wake Forest +7

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#23
Posted: 12/13/2011 9:28:30 AM

Insight Bowl (Tempe, AZ):

Iowa vs Oklahoma

Line: Oklahoma -14

Total: 57.5

What a weird matchup in a weird location. Two completely opposite teams playing several hundred miles from their college campuses. Iowa has been a force at home, but has struggled mightily on the road this year. Iowa will have to play ball control with RB Coker to have a chance in this one. On the other side of the coin, the Sooners lost a couple of their games late in the season, but still have the better team in this matchup. QB Jones and his playmaker WR Broyles will light up the Hawkeyes in this game. Don't overthink this one...

LEAN: Oklahoma -14

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#24
Posted: 12/13/2011 9:34:39 AM
Nice job Lar!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#25
Posted: 12/13/2011 9:48:44 AM

Texas Bowl (Houston, TX):

Texas A&M vs Northwestern

Line: A&M -9.5

Total: 65

It's never a good sign when your head coach gets fired right before you go to a bowl game. In fact, that's almost unheard of, actually. I'm not sure how A&M will respond in light of this information. Regardless, both teams have great quarterbacks: A&M has Tannehill "the Mannehill" and Northwestern has Persa. On first glance, I thought A&M would win behind Tannehill and RB Gray and WR Swopes. But, looking more closely, A&M lost four of their last five, including the heartbreaking loss to rival Texas. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have won four of their last five, including in Lincoln against Nebraska, and have momentum.

LEAN: Northwestern +9.5 -AND- OVER 65

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