Postseason stats: 17-9 with a 7 game win streak. Plus $998 USD all bets are 1 unit so far at $100 per unit. It seems I have an equal number of faders (haters) as followers but that's ok. Covers is a weird place.
I posted here yesterday about not falling for the "Cubs are due" theory. Today, I expect many gamblers to take the same notion. Today's game has a HUGE psychological angle that really interested me. Now, I am not one to get caught up in trends and history and I rarely play a game on an angle like that. So, first....let's take a look at the game.
Matz has a 2.27 ERA since being called up from the minors. Yes, he is another rookie starting for the Mets on a big stage....but let's face it........he is better than Hammel (3.74). Advantage METS.
The Cubs defensive outfield is in shambles. Schwarber looked terrible last night on defense and was even tagged upon from first base on a routine fly ball to left field. The Mets are running on all of these outfielders. Soler looks shaky in right field as well. Meanwhile, the Mets defense is stealing runs with assists from the outfield (Cespedes, game 2 throw out at the plate) and robbing home runs (Granderson). Huge advantage METS.
The Mets are hitting. The Cubs are slumping. Every matchup points to the Mets in this game. But wait, there's more.
In the history of the MLB postseason, teams down 0-3 are an awful 6-28 in elimination games. This is a big psychological angle against the Cubs. Their body language at the end of game 3 tells the story. They look beaten. Even worse, teams down 0-3 are 2 wins and 14 losses on their home field in this situation.
With all of this working against the Cubs, Mets backers would figure to lay a big price today but that's not the case. The Mets are dogs at +110.
METS SWEEP
On to the early game. Wow. I never saw this collapse coming from Toronto. While many might expect Estrada to buckle down and get a win today, the situation is bleak in Canada. The Jays numbers vs. Volquez are anemic (Bautista 3/17; Tulo 3/14, Revere 0/8; Martin 0/6). As a team they are batting a pathetic .144 vs. Volquez.
With all the pressure on Toronto, how can anyone take them as a favorite when the KC bats are showing absolutely no reason that they will not score runs today.
With that said, I have seen this Toronto team with their backs against the wall, so I will take the extra insurance of KC plus one run at a great price. You can't beat this for value.
KC +1 run, -110
Good luck to all!