Record stands at 12-4 this includes sf m/line play as well as sf - 1.5 in the last game played against stlouis. We have had a good run - let's see if we can keep it going. Let's look at some numbers:
105 SF Bumgarner 11
KC Sheilds 30
Sf opens up as a 105 favorite currently around 107 - 110 (depending on who your book is) - see donbest.com. Bum. has a numerical rating of 11 and shields 30 (lower the better) - the numbers come from sagarin.com and a formula I use to give each starting pitcher a numerical rating.
Based on my numerical ratings - on paper Bum is clearly a better pitcher. However, as we have witnessed this season as well has during the playoffs you can't always bet according to who the better starting pitcher is on paper and expect to win every time. Unfortunately it doesn't work that way. This is why you have to look at the opening line of 105 and try to find games where the starting pitchers had numerical ratings of 11 and 30 respectively.
Based on history - when you have an opening line of 105 and the numerical ratings above (or very close) - the home team often takes home the victory. I wouldn't go crazy but I think KC wins game 1. Good luck all enjoy the series.