I just finished capping this game and I was surprised SF were favs. I had PIT quite comfortably ahead.Then I looked a little deeper and understood why the line is as it is. Lets look at pros and cons for SF.
Pros: Historically odds are against series sweeps. Morton's away record isn't crash hot recently. Bull pen is a little better. SF batting stats at home are a little better than PIT stats away this season.
Cons: Morton ERA since 2011 (5 games) against SF is 1.2. Lincecum ERA since 2010 (5 games) against PIT is 3.6 PIT record (Runs) against RH is markedly better than SF.
Can anyone else shed any light on this match up today? Does anyone see value on PIT today or are season sweeps just so unlikely.
I just finished capping this game and I was surprised SF were favs. I had PIT quite comfortably ahead.Then I looked a little deeper and understood why the line is as it is. Lets look at pros and cons for SF.
Pros: Historically odds are against series sweeps. Morton's away record isn't crash hot recently. Bull pen is a little better. SF batting stats at home are a little better than PIT stats away this season.
Cons: Morton ERA since 2011 (5 games) against SF is 1.2. Lincecum ERA since 2010 (5 games) against PIT is 3.6 PIT record (Runs) against RH is markedly better than SF.
Can anyone else shed any light on this match up today? Does anyone see value on PIT today or are season sweeps just so unlikely.
SF is on a 6 game losing streak, which they have not done all year. They are very close in the wild card standing, with Pittsburg slightly ahead of them. I think if SF is to turn it around, this is more or less a must game. I can't see them losing the 7th game in a row.
Lincecum was pitching very well before being roughed up by the Dodgers on july 25th. In his last 5 decisions before the Dodger game, he gave up: 6/25 (no hitter); 7/01 (4 hits); 7/6 (3 hits); 7/11 ( 3 hits); and 7/20 ( 5 hits). Therefore, he has been pitching solid baseball. Plus, he has 98 career Wins... and don't think he doesn't have 100 wins firmly in his sights.
If SF loses this game I think you can pretty well stick a fork in them, cause they'll be done.
SF is on a 6 game losing streak, which they have not done all year. They are very close in the wild card standing, with Pittsburg slightly ahead of them. I think if SF is to turn it around, this is more or less a must game. I can't see them losing the 7th game in a row.
Lincecum was pitching very well before being roughed up by the Dodgers on july 25th. In his last 5 decisions before the Dodger game, he gave up: 6/25 (no hitter); 7/01 (4 hits); 7/6 (3 hits); 7/11 ( 3 hits); and 7/20 ( 5 hits). Therefore, he has been pitching solid baseball. Plus, he has 98 career Wins... and don't think he doesn't have 100 wins firmly in his sights.
If SF loses this game I think you can pretty well stick a fork in them, cause they'll be done.
So basically motivation will be a big part of today's performance from SF to not go 7 losses on the trot; not lose grip on Wild card place and to help Lincecum head towards 100 wins. You are right Lincecum's performance (particularly at home) before Dodger game is very impressive. There is still a heck of a lot of games left in the normal season. I would be hard pressed to think they will be done if they lose today. Look at TBs turnaround for instance.
So basically motivation will be a big part of today's performance from SF to not go 7 losses on the trot; not lose grip on Wild card place and to help Lincecum head towards 100 wins. You are right Lincecum's performance (particularly at home) before Dodger game is very impressive. There is still a heck of a lot of games left in the normal season. I would be hard pressed to think they will be done if they lose today. Look at TBs turnaround for instance.
However, if I was forced to pick a side it would 100% be the Pirates. I see them as the favorites.
A few notes:
- Giants hit lefties better than they do righties (other way around for the Pirates)
- Giants have the 2nd worst OPS in baseball over the last week (on Cincy has been worse), and have scored only 9 runs over their last 7 games
Stay away from the Giants and don't try to catch a falling knife.
You can't fault a PIT play based on recent trends, heck even season trends. SF have been spectacularly bad at home 5-15 last 20. 11 unders 6 overs.The Under looks very tasty, but surely the bubble will burst for at least one of these teams after very low scoring days? Dunno. Going to have a quick lookie at Over Under scenarios.
However, if I was forced to pick a side it would 100% be the Pirates. I see them as the favorites.
A few notes:
- Giants hit lefties better than they do righties (other way around for the Pirates)
- Giants have the 2nd worst OPS in baseball over the last week (on Cincy has been worse), and have scored only 9 runs over their last 7 games
Stay away from the Giants and don't try to catch a falling knife.
You can't fault a PIT play based on recent trends, heck even season trends. SF have been spectacularly bad at home 5-15 last 20. 11 unders 6 overs.The Under looks very tasty, but surely the bubble will burst for at least one of these teams after very low scoring days? Dunno. Going to have a quick lookie at Over Under scenarios.
For me, the Giants are a decent team in a horrible slump. Lincecum pitched a no hitter a month ago, and has been 3 and 4 hitting teams since. So, I think he will get it done today. Just my opinion.
As for Giants being done, it just seems like a major collapse against a Wild card rival (ie., Pirates) is a very bad sign. Sure, they could easily turn it around, but it seems that teams that begin to implode in July\Aug, are rarely around for the post-season.
For me, the Giants are a decent team in a horrible slump. Lincecum pitched a no hitter a month ago, and has been 3 and 4 hitting teams since. So, I think he will get it done today. Just my opinion.
As for Giants being done, it just seems like a major collapse against a Wild card rival (ie., Pirates) is a very bad sign. Sure, they could easily turn it around, but it seems that teams that begin to implode in July\Aug, are rarely around for the post-season.
Wind is blowing out at SF 11mph although it would be worth checking closer to game. No play for me on O/U. Plus I think things could open up today. Both pitchers are not exactly unhittable.
I was looking at Morton's away record and it really is bad. This could be SF's chance to turn it around. Still too many question marks in this game. No play for me. Good luck to everyone.
Wind is blowing out at SF 11mph although it would be worth checking closer to game. No play for me on O/U. Plus I think things could open up today. Both pitchers are not exactly unhittable.
I was looking at Morton's away record and it really is bad. This could be SF's chance to turn it around. Still too many question marks in this game. No play for me. Good luck to everyone.
Wind is blowing out at SF 11mph although it would be worth checking closer to game. No play for me on O/U. Plus I think things could open up today. Both pitchers are not exactly unhittable.
I was looking at Morton's away record and it really is bad. This could be SF's chance to turn it around. Still too many question marks in this game. No play for me. Good luck to everyone.
I hear yea Learner, probably a great game to lay off off on.
Still, I think it's time for the Freak to show he is worth the 35 M, 2 yr deal the Giants gave him. I think I'll roll the dice, and go with SF today. I totally lucked out on the A's game yesterday, so maybe my luck will hold out for one more day.
Wind is blowing out at SF 11mph although it would be worth checking closer to game. No play for me on O/U. Plus I think things could open up today. Both pitchers are not exactly unhittable.
I was looking at Morton's away record and it really is bad. This could be SF's chance to turn it around. Still too many question marks in this game. No play for me. Good luck to everyone.
I hear yea Learner, probably a great game to lay off off on.
Still, I think it's time for the Freak to show he is worth the 35 M, 2 yr deal the Giants gave him. I think I'll roll the dice, and go with SF today. I totally lucked out on the A's game yesterday, so maybe my luck will hold out for one more day.
A few important factors regarding home/away spits for Morton… 3 of his road starts were in AL parks (Baltimore/New York/Tampa Bay), 1 at colorado, and 2 at Chicago on windy days. Need to adjust the raw numbers to compensate for the situation.
Regardless, when looking at the wind it is important to note that Morton is not a flyball pitcher. He has a career 1.32 GB/FB ratio, and he does not give up many HRs (only 26 over his last 470 innings of work or so). Lincecum is more even, with a .92 GB/FB ratio, but he gives up more HRs.
A few important factors regarding home/away spits for Morton… 3 of his road starts were in AL parks (Baltimore/New York/Tampa Bay), 1 at colorado, and 2 at Chicago on windy days. Need to adjust the raw numbers to compensate for the situation.
Regardless, when looking at the wind it is important to note that Morton is not a flyball pitcher. He has a career 1.32 GB/FB ratio, and he does not give up many HRs (only 26 over his last 470 innings of work or so). Lincecum is more even, with a .92 GB/FB ratio, but he gives up more HRs.
Umm.. well Lincecum did everything he could to try to lose, including blowing a 3 - 0 first inning lead, and bouncing into a double play with one out, and the based juiced, HOWEVER, the Giants won, as I predicted.
Umm.. well Lincecum did everything he could to try to lose, including blowing a 3 - 0 first inning lead, and bouncing into a double play with one out, and the based juiced, HOWEVER, the Giants won, as I predicted.
Nice one smp! It was a very topsy turvy encounter.
Thanks man... I was following the game on espn Gamecast, then I had to leave with the Pirates ahead, so I kissed my cash good-bye. I came back home, I found out they had won. Wow, I will think twice before I show much confidence in Timmy. Should have been backing the Jays... they are on fire.
Nice one smp! It was a very topsy turvy encounter.
Thanks man... I was following the game on espn Gamecast, then I had to leave with the Pirates ahead, so I kissed my cash good-bye. I came back home, I found out they had won. Wow, I will think twice before I show much confidence in Timmy. Should have been backing the Jays... they are on fire.
The game kinda went as I expected - all over the shop and why I didn't pull the trigger although I was leaning more towards SF. Actually the over was the play.
Yes I'm peeved I didn't stay on TOR having cashing in on them game 1 against BOS. GL today!
The game kinda went as I expected - all over the shop and why I didn't pull the trigger although I was leaning more towards SF. Actually the over was the play.
Yes I'm peeved I didn't stay on TOR having cashing in on them game 1 against BOS. GL today!
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