Cardinals @ Padres
Recommendation: Cardinals +102
This one figures to be a pitcher’s duel as Lance Lynn and Tyson Ross take the mound for their respective teams. I’ve been on record often talking about how anemic this Friars offense is. They’re one of the worst offensive teams in the history of the game and just dealt away one of their biggest threats in Chase Headley. What most people don’t know is that the Cardinals offense is right behind them with the 2nd fewest runs scored in the league. The “total” sits at a very low 6 so we’ll look to some of the extraneous factors and play the side.
The pitching equation in this one sets up about even. Tyson Ross is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball due to the fact that he plays in a small market. Lance Lynn is a high quality pitcher as well, but gets overshadowed in St. Louis behind Adam Wainwright and others. Both of these pitches have ERA’s below 2 in the month of July so we should expect dominance from both sides tonight.
As for the other factors, I have to give the Cardinals the edge in pretty much every category. Despite having an offense that is far below what is was just a year ago, this lineup far exceeds that of the one in San Diego. The Card’s also added A.J. Pierzynski, who is no Yadier Molina but it certainly an upgrade from Tony Cruz. Laying any kind of chalk with the Padres right now is just a terrible idea. We’ll take the better team all the way in this one and side with the Cardinals.
Yankees @ Rangers
Recommendation: Yankees -147
Brandon McCarthy is loving his fresh start in New York. He’s gone 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his first 3 starts in the city that never sleeps. McCarthy has been by far the most unlucky pitcher in baseball this season. Everything that could go wrong for this guy did while in Arizona, and he had a horrible record to show for it. But every advanced metrics stat indicated that he was primed for a turnaround. It looks like that turnaround has finally begun which makes McCarthy a “bet on” pitcher even at this kind of price. His recent quotes also indicate that he is feeling a great deal of confidence which will only help his performance.
The Yankees are far from the powerhouse that we’re used to seeing. Injuries have torn apart this starting rotation and the season seems to be dedicated to making sure that the very likeable Derek Jeter is sent off in style. However, this team is very much in the race in what is a weak AL East. They keep hanging around and actually have a decent shot at caching the Orioles who are not used to controlling a division lead.
The awful Nick Martinez takes the hill for the rangers. Martinez hasn’t won in his last 8 starts while posting a 0-5 record with a 6.98 ERA. I could go on but there’s just not anything positive to say about this guy right now. Big edge to the Yanks in this one and we’ll lay the chalk and cruise to an easy victory. Take the Yankees.