Messages

Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Japan / Netherlands Writeup - Everything you need to know
Spitfire15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Spitfire15
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Turks and
              Caicos Islands
#1
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:00:05 AM
Just don't mind the sloppy, staggered info.  I'm not going to make it pretty.


JAPAN
5-3 vs Brazil
5-2 vs China
3-6 vs Cuba
Cuba has 5 on Brazil and 12 on China, Japan's pitching has not been as expected and all teams played generally scored less in their games vs other teams than vs Japan.

DUTCH
5-0 Korea
2-8 Taipei
4-1 Australia
Korea, who lost 5-0 to the Dutch, beat Australia 6-0 and upset Taipei (The Nether's one bad loss) 3-2, but also lost to Australia 8-3.  Pitching/denese showed sings of weakness but seems to be improving and the pitcher analysis to follow suggests a good game.


TOKYO DOME
More hitter-friendly than most of the first round parks.  'Normal' dimensions, scouting report is that the ball carriers well due to the 'pressure' in the dome, there is a 12' home run fence that will keep some balls in the park, and these is a large amount of foul territory which of course helps the pitchers.

That said, it is considered a slight hitters park, and the stats to this point suggest it is a great park to bet an over...

Netherlands 6, Cuba 2



Japan 4, Taipei 3
Cuba 14, Chinese Taipei 0

That is an average of 9.33 runs per game, over-under posted at 6.5

Which brings us to the starting pitchers, who are able to pitch a little deeper into the game in round 2...

MAEDA (Japan)
Excellent statistics.  Throws with power and control, he only walks about 1.8 batters per nine innings, not a high strikeout pitcher but boasts a career 2.47 ERA and in more recent and significant tournaments and the past year that is most like 2.0 or even less.

CORDEMANS (Netherlands)
The first thing that stands out is his age.  38 years old.  However, he has great stats and has been a pitcher that has carryied great demand in his league for many years.  Finesse pitcher, 88mph fastball, throws a changeuip, slider, and curveball, and posts a solid ERA (around 3.2) and solid K/BB ration.

Odds just about everywhere are 6.5 on the total, most are heavily jucing the sides in this game and you can't get Japan at better than -200 with some going up to -240, Netherlands is getting less than +170 almost everywhere, but my bookie has +170 which is nice for me.

MY PICK...
We all know the quick perception of these two teams.  Japan is the only team to win a WBC championship, 2-0, and a strong favorite (tied at #1 at many books) and the Netherlands has in the past and continues to be the pesky underdog that shows up.

So far THIS year, Japan has really done nothing impressive.  The have been weak in scoring against (pitching/defense) and their offense while score 5-5-3 is not that good!  That was against China and Japan (and Cuba) who have all been exposed much more by other teams.

THIS year the Netherlands had a rough game, maybe game-and-a-half from a pitching/defensive perspective but have been solid lately and bring their ace to the mound tonight (as do Japan).

I really, really want to take this over.  But all numbers show that the scoring in this game should be expected to be in the range of 8-10.  6.5 is a key number that is very vulnerable from and under-bettors perspective, very over-friendly.  I simply don't believe the books are giving this one away, strong pitching from the starters, both could very easily go 6 innings And should average 1-2 runs against (Maeda has the better numbers but are facing the very slightly more impressive bats, Cordemans has earned his ace status and Japan has not shown to be something to worry about too much offensively).  Now, as far as apublic perception goes, if you assume that nobody is doing almost ANY research the first though is that the netherlands is a lame duck of a team, and Japan is generally known for pitching and not offensive dominance.  I suppose I could be over-analyzing the line placement, as many's first guess may be something like 3-5 for Japan and 0-2 for Netherlands or about 5 total runs.

.5 unit on OVER 6.5 (-130)

The real value in this one is on the side.  Maeda will be difficult, that but 2.0 ERA is not anything that can be compared to MLB or even AAA statistics.  Of course that said, the bats in the Netherlands probably aren't that competitive either, but it is their best of the best including some major league players and the team has proven to be effective on offense.

From a human/motivational perspective all quotes form the Nethelands show a sign of a very loose team who pretty much took the day off yesterday, they have nothing to lose as they have already 'done it again' and they are a good team that knows they can shock everyone following the WBC tonight/this morning.  Japan.  Faces.  A lot.  Of pressure.  They could easily be scared of this matchup where they are facing a team that everyone expects them to win, but they know that this is a fiesty opponent and they are one loss away from being the first 'favorite' to be eliminated

1 unit NETHERLANDS RL +1.5 (-105)
2 units NETHERLANDS ML (+170)

Hit me with some feedback boys!
quote
Spitfire15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Spitfire15
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Turks and
              Caicos Islands
#2
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:15:10 AM
Also, by the starting lineups for each team today, to this point in the WBC...

The Dutch are outhitting the Japanese .359 to .351

Cordemans (Dutch) has a 2.0 ERA, Maeda is at 2.70
quote
Spitfire15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Spitfire15
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Turks and
              Caicos Islands
#3
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:20:47 AM
Home Plate Umpire: Alfonso Marquez...

This snippet from a report about the highs and lows throughout the MLB going into spring traning in 2012...

"--Games with umpire Lance Barrett behind home plate have averaged the most strikeouts (17.9). Umpire Alfonso Marquez is averaging the fewest K’s per game (12.9).

Chalk one up for the over...

----------------------

Scouting report from Major League Umpires' Performance, 2007-2010, by Andy Goldblatt:

Marquez has a significantly smaller than average strike zone. ... Going by K/BB, only five umpires have a smaller strike zone. ... Among the younger crop of umpires, Marquez ranks among the more feisty. His career ejection rate is 2.7 percent, some 20 percent higher than the norm.

Scouting report from an angry blog commenter:

And while I try to never get too hostile, Alfonso Marquez can eat my fool. I should only be so lucky if I could suck at my job as much as he does and still get paid. What a friggin clown.

Average K/9 (2011): 14.3

Average BB/9 (2011): 6.5

Sample PITCHf/x strike zone: July 2, 2011. Marquez ejected Toronto reliever Jon Rauch and manager John Farrell late in the game after some close calls. The data shows that Blue Jays pitchers were getting squeezed most of the night.


quote
TheCrow send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TheCrow
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 8956
Location: California
#4
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:32:24 AM
i was thinking the under,  you think the over is the play?  japan last game was lucky for the over, the 2 pitchers for this game have era in the twos, plus japan can't get anything more than singles.  Japan manager loves to bunt and cuba wasn't able to score much vs the netherlands in their last game together.  I realize you might have data that support those umpires on the over, but i don't know if that is strong enough for cause on the over, since this is a WBC game and not MLB, what you think?
quote
skatethis619 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
skatethis619
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 487
Location:
#5
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:37:33 AM
when i saw this line i said wtf and bet japan right away i thoght this line should be japan -350 or somthing the never everlands got ok hitting and no pitching when the starter comes out all hell is gonna break loose
quote
Spitfire15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Spitfire15
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Turks and
              Caicos Islands
#6
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:39:38 AM
I think my over play was a bet of passion, not a strong play.  I felt compelled only because recent scores + the umpire and fast infield/carrying ball make me able to see a 9-10 run game, but what you CAN SEE is not always going to happen more than 50% of the time.

My original statement in the post is that for the number to be where it is there must be significant evidence.  Two rock solid pitchers, Japan's offense has been anything but explosive, and I there is a ton of foul territory to exploit.



I am much most interested in the Netherlands and would not talk you out of the under despite my betting the over.    Hope this helps.
quote
Spitfire15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Spitfire15
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Turks and
              Caicos Islands
#7
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:41:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by skatethis619:

when i saw this line i said wtf and bet japan right away i thoght this line should be japan -350 or somthing the never everlands got ok hitting and no pitching when the starter comes out all hell is gonna break loose


Their starter is a proven talent and win or lose, you made a spur-of-the-moment reckless bet of passion.  I can assure you that if the true odds of a game are -350 that las vegas will not be posting a line that is 150 points off, especially on a favorite that the whole world knows won the whole thing in the only 2 prior tournaments.

Get this guy outta here...
quote
Spitfire15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Spitfire15
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Turks and
              Caicos Islands
#8
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:43:10 AM
And the Netherlands' "ok hitting" is more ok than Japan's hitting to this point!  They could have the second worst hitting on the planet, if they are playing the worst hitting team on the planet they have an advantage, and I think this Netherlands squad is much better than okay.

They are hitting .359, they hill well in qualifiers, and they hit well last year.  They can hit.  They can hit.  Day.  Kahn.  Hit.
quote
Spitfire15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Spitfire15
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Turks and
              Caicos Islands
#9
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:44:51 AM
Nut surpised that I can count on THE CROW to still be posting at 5:44 AM!!!



...Even if it is only 2:44 there.



...you puss

I'm going to ride this one out... only 15 minutes until 6AM, darn it, guess I'm going to bet at about 8:30.
quote
skatethis619 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
skatethis619
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 487
Location:
#10
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:46:24 AM
lol thanks for feed back but all i gotta say is................13 mins till 1st pitch
quote
TheCrow send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TheCrow
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 8956
Location: California
#11
Posted: 3/10/2013 5:58:28 AM
alright, i just put $75 on the under at +110 odds at 5dimes.  start time in less than a minute with the clocks moving forward 1 hour here in the states, west coast.
quote
Spitfire15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Spitfire15
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Turks and
              Caicos Islands
#12
Posted: 3/10/2013 6:04:59 AM
Yeah that time change is a girl, of all nights, a night when I'm gonna be going to bed at about 7:30am (not about 8:30am).

Just grabbed a red bull, a donut, and some zig-zags.

Stating an in-game thread, hope to see you both there. 
quote
TheCrow send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TheCrow
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 8956
Location: California
#13
Posted: 3/10/2013 6:23:06 AM
isn't it interesting that all the japanese pitchers seem to have a "hitch" in their delivery, started with hideo nomo that we saw but my do i need this kenta maeda to pitch a gem this morning
quote
Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.