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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: THE CHASE LOUNGE...
Newfie_Bullet send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#101
Posted: 10/30/2012 1:47:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jonesin:

 

At my book I have Texas and Tulsa at +6.5..Miss st is at +6.

It's only proline book we use, they don't post all games

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#102
Posted: 10/30/2012 2:14:53 PM

MAN---The Lounge is busy--I love it!  

McShady, thanks for the kind words and the awesome info all season long. 

I am not a hoops fan but  love reading all the info on this thread so far.  Good Luck Boys!!

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#103
Posted: 10/30/2012 2:27:45 PM
DAL v LAL

LAL 5-2 ATS last 2 years
5-2 O/U
2010 - 13-1 1x under in season series (at least 3 games)
2011 - 11-3 1x under in a seson series

May chase the LAL ATS against DAL for the season
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#104
Posted: 10/30/2012 2:28:20 PM
And LAL v DAL

10/30, 11/24. 2/24, 4/2
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#105
Posted: 10/30/2012 2:48:46 PM
Has anyone heard of the 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 road favorite system? I have heard that road teams starting week nine that are favored by 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 covered every game last two years. Im not positive on this system, but thought maybe you guys have heard of this? Any thoughts?
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#106
Posted: 10/30/2012 2:59:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bikemcr:

Ok . NBA champs 2-8 ATS the first game the following season including all of the last 6 years . You were right Angle .


Thanks for the info bike. I can't remember how many years I have won in a row at least 3, maybe 4.

I did see a write-up where someone said they were going with the Heat and never mind the fading champs strategy.

I'm definitely on the Celtics tonight.
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#107
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:10:11 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

Has anyone heard of the 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 road favorite system? I have heard that road teams starting week nine that are favored by 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 covered every game last two years. Im not positive on this system, but thought maybe you guys have heard of this? Any thoughts?

 

Sorry forgot to mention this was in the NFL.

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#108
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:11:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

Has anyone heard of the 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 road favorite system? I have heard that road teams starting week nine that are favored by 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 covered every game last two years. Im not positive on this system, but thought maybe you guys have heard of this? Any thoughts?

I assume you are talking about NFL.  One of the problems with a system like that is what line are you basing it off of.  Opening line, closing line, specific book, etc.

I ran the following query 
week>=9 and AF and line<=-2.5 and line>=-3.5 and season>2009 and week<=17
week greater than or equal to 9
away favorite
Line between -2.5 and -3.5
Since 2009
No playoffs (less or equal to week 17)

18-7-1 ATS (average line -3.1)
18-7-1 O/U (average total 43.2)

22-4-0 ATS 6 PT Teaser
20-6-0 O/U 6 PT Teaser 

23-3-0 ATS 10 PT Teaser
21-4-1 O/U 10 PT Teaser


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#109
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:13:12 PM
WAS v CLE (gm1/gm2/gm3)

WAS
2010 - 11-3 1 game under in season series (8/2/1) ((12-2 incl. gm 4)
2011 - 14-0 1 game under in season series (13/0/1)

CLE
2010 - 11-3 1 game under in season series (7/2/1) ((13-1 incl gm 4)
2011 - 13-1 1 game under in season series (7/2/4)

Last 2 years CLE 4-3 ATS
O/U 3-4

May chase under
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#110
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:17:19 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Go_Nads]

I assume you are talking about NFL.  One of the problems with a system like that is what line are you basing it off of.  Opening line, closing line, specific book, etc.

I ran the following query 
week>=9 and AF and line<=-2.5 and line>=-3.5 and season>2009 and week<=17
week greater than or equal to 9
away favorite
Line between -2.5 and -3.5
Since 2009
No playoffs (less or equal to week 17)

18-7-1 ATS (average line -3.1)
18-7-1 O/U (average total 43.2)

22-4-0 ATS 6 PT Teaser
20-6-0 O/U 6 PT Teaser 

23-3-0 ATS 10 PT Teaser
21-4-1 O/U 10 PT Teaser


[/Quote

See thats what i couldnt figure out if it was closing or opening. Im no capper just try to follow trends. The guy mentioned this in passing said that last two years it was 16-0-1. So i thought somebody in this thread might have better knowledge. Thanks for looking in to it. This week there are five teams based on the opening line. Might be worth keeping track? 

Bears-3 1/2

Det-3 1/2

Bal-3 1/2

Mia-2 1/2

Denver-3 1/2

 

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#111
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:19:42 PM
@Go_Nads

Can u please run a query on which teams have not lost a 13pt teaser in NFL this year? Last year after about half of the season there were at least 5 or 6 and I did well with that. Sometimes one would play the other or be on the bye week which left only 4 teams which is the number of teams for a 13pt teaser.
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#112
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:21:40 PM
Best I can tell the SDQL uses the most widely available closing line.
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#113
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:42:10 PM
Now for the official disclaimer.  

Not a capper and first time looking at NBA.  I don't have any fancy models, just game history and the power of Excel. This season will be a work in process building up my own projection model and I hope to find certain trends that will be profitable.  

Consistent with this thread, using a chase system on the season series between two teams.  Will mostly bet totals with some ATS. 

If successful, will post a SS with trends and plays in a few weeks. 

So for tonight:

Looking at the lines, based on my limited analysis so far:

Plays tonight:

Starting chases:

BOS/MIA u186.5
CLE/WAS u190.5

No play on Lakers - don't like the -9 line.

BOL everyone 
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#114
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:47:42 PM
@mj
Ill play that Wash UNDER
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#115
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:03:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

@mj
Ill play that Wash UNDER

are you chasing or just singles?
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#116
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:10:08 PM

Great info mjnorman !

I am with you Angle . Bought 1.5 points to get Celtics to +8 -140 .

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#117
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:23:26 PM
Good Luck MJ.

Will be very interesting to follow. 
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#118
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:34:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Newfie_Bullet:

It's only proline book we use, they don't post all games

 

Thanks for the clarification Newfie.

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#119
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:36:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kake7:


are you chasing or just singles?

Chasing

G2 with be tmrw. Im experimenting...
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#120
Posted: 10/30/2012 4:39:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:


Chasing

G2 with be tmrw. Im experimenting...
K thanks
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#121
Posted: 10/30/2012 5:13:40 PM
Great info so far gentlemen as the Miami - Boston game last 6 champs have failed to cover the spread opening day. Another interesting trend to follow this season as I will do this is teams on long road trips lets say 4 or more if they cover or not the last day of the road trip. Definately like Boston with Angle and no Wall's for Wash like the under as well. No Donk for Dallas but still a very dangerous team like the over in that game. Let me please no your thoughts involving last game of a road trip involving 4 or more games.
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#122
Posted: 10/30/2012 5:15:02 PM
im on was under too
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#123
Posted: 10/30/2012 5:59:09 PM

Is the consensus for tonights NBA the Wash/Clev under and Boston +8 or is it the total with Bos/Heat?

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#124
Posted: 10/30/2012 6:02:04 PM

It's hard to figure out who everyone is playing...

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#125
Posted: 10/30/2012 6:02:24 PM
Jattdoit /GoNads -

Interesting trend.  I have SBR closing lines:
Weeks 9-17, 2009/10/11:
2.5 road fav: 6-1
3    road fav: 18-9
3.5 road fav: 10-4

Even breaking down by year, it's 3 consistent years of profit without a single losing trend.

Food for thought....
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