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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: THE CHASE LOUNGE...
Bettingbrothers send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:12:13 PM
at -110
Game 1: Win 30.6 lose 23 net 7.6
Game 2: Win 8.1 lose 14 net -5.9
Game 3 (4 units): Win 14.4 lose 12 net 2.2
overall 3.9 units

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#52
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:13:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:


Dont u hit all those Wooden Shoe OVERS being sober? 


my attorney and physician advise me not to answer your question, sorry
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#53
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:15:13 PM
Risk...To win 1u

G1 = 1.1u
G2 = 2.3u
G3 = 4.85u
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#54
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:16:44 PM
thanks NADS, it didn't feel right
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#55
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:20:37 PM
Revised:
Game 1: (1 unit) Win (34*.9)30.6 lose 23 net 7.6
Game 2 (2 units) Win 16.2((9*2)*.9) lose 28(14*2) net -11.8
Game 3 (4 units) Win 32.4((9*4)*.9) lose 24(6*4) net 8.4
Overall Net: 4.2 units
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#56
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:24:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

Risk...To win 1u

G1 = 1.1u
G2 = 2.3u
G3 = 4.85u

2.3u? 4.85u?  Are you risking to win 2.3 units in Game 2? and risking to win 4.85 units in game 3? And risking to win 1.1 units in game 1?

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#57
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:37:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

Risk...To win 1u

G1 > 1.1u to win 1u
G2 > 2.3u to win 2.1u - G1loss = 1u
G3 >  4.85u to win 4.4u - G1&2loss = 1u

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#58
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:38:28 PM
@Go_Nads

thx for running.

could be a pain to keep track of but was thinking of 3 game chases, but dont have to be on same trip.

taking nuggets for example,  41 away games, start with game 1 away and chase to game 3.  however, home games coukd be in middle of the set.  can just set site to away in sdql and see results   

thinkig like mlb.  maybe some teams have a better trend and


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#59
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:42:17 PM
ugh  phone being retarded not letting me fix mispellings  

saying maybe can find some teams that have the over or under trend in specific 3 game sets  

will try to run some stuff tomorrow, pumpkin carving night with the kids tonight  

bol 

on cards +7.5 and under 38 small tho
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#60
Posted: 10/29/2012 7:36:10 PM
just a thought on tonights game. S. Fran is 25-9 ATS on Mon Nights since 1992 and Arizona is 2-5 ATS since 1992
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#61
Posted: 10/29/2012 7:40:47 PM
on another site, a member does a chase on the last 3 games of a long road trip.  sometimes filters out really good teams vs bad teams.  
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#62
Posted: 10/29/2012 8:09:44 PM
Just wanted to thank shady and the rest of u guys for a great mlb. nba here we come!!!!
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#63
Posted: 10/29/2012 8:31:58 PM
I.m sorry guys, but can someone send me the link to the site that is used to run these trends.

Thanks
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#64
Posted: 10/29/2012 8:43:04 PM

JUST WANT TO THANK MCSHADY AND SEMPER FOR THEIR DEDICATION TO US THIS BASEBALL SEASON. ALSO TO ANGLE FOR KEEPING THE LOUNGE OPEN WHEN THE HATERS CRASHED OUR PARTY.         

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#65
Posted: 10/29/2012 8:50:17 PM
I took the over 7.5 total in 3rd 1/4 for +110 @ greek, more curiosity than anything on the 6.5
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#66
Posted: 10/29/2012 8:51:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PTOTOUR:

JUST WANT TO THANK MCSHADY AND SEMPER FOR THEIR DEDICATION TO US THIS BASEBALL SEASON. ALSO TO ANGLE FOR KEEPING THE LOUNGE OPEN WHEN THE HATERS CRASHED OUR PARTY.         

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#67
Posted: 10/29/2012 9:36:17 PM

Hey guys, I have been doing an NBA and NHL under chase for the last 3 years with some of my friends. We started our analysis at teams that had 4 in a row over and started chasing the under. Here are some things I have found just looking at the Eastern Conference NOT including Milwakee who I have found to be an extremely streaky team:

- During the 2009 - 2010 season, longest over streak was 7 and that happened once with Nets. The rest of teams, NOT including the Bucks (who had 1, 9 game over streak) had no over runs of more than 6. Many ended on Game A.

- During the 2010 - 2011 season, the longest over streak was 7 with 3 teams doing that once. The rest of the teams had at most 6 in a row over. Once again, many ended on Game A.

*The problem with that is as Shady and others have pointed out, once you get over the 3 game chase it terns into a mess. That is why we tried filtering it to only the Eastern Conference to limit our exposure on a long run.

With all the being said, the most fruitful trend we found was in the NHL and the Western Conference. Teams that went on a road trip of 3 or more games went under at least once at a record of roughly 43-2 over the past two years. Unfortunately its looking as if that will not come into play this year.

I have been trying to find something similar as you all have with the road trips and home stands with the under. Came across much of the same info as you have. Going to start looking at back-to-back trends in reference to O/U.

Hope that info helps in some way and I am going to be posted somewhere once the season gets going as a way to hopefully give back. Really disappoined no NHL as of now because I'm much more confident with that but going to try and make the best of what is at hand this winter.

 

 

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#68
Posted: 10/29/2012 9:41:19 PM
This is very interesting.  Since we are talking about 3 games road trip.  I run through data NBA SDQL if two previous games away were UNDER and the third game is OVER.

query string: AO and pp:AU and p:AU and season=2010
O/U:38-0-0 (16.0)avg total: 199.3

query string: AO and pp:AU and p:AU and season=2011
O/U:30-0-0 (12.5)avg total: 187.2





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#69
Posted: 10/29/2012 9:47:44 PM
Since 2009 upto last season.

query string: AO and pp:AU and p:AU
O/U:541-0-0 (14.1)avg total: 193.0

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#70
Posted: 10/29/2012 9:58:00 PM
Nevermind previous two threads above ^^^^^  I had it wrong at query.

It should be:
A and pp:AU and p:AU and season=2011

Sorry guys.
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#71
Posted: 10/29/2012 10:07:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PTOTOUR:

JUST WANT TO THANK MCSHADY AND SEMPER FOR THEIR DEDICATION TO US THIS BASEBALL SEASON. ALSO TO ANGLE FOR KEEPING THE LOUNGE OPEN WHEN THE HATERS CRASHED OUR PARTY.         

 

Well said pto

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#72
Posted: 10/29/2012 10:13:09 PM
Halftime like Ariz +3 and over 17.5. Like to know anybody's thoughts on Seattle next week at home -5
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#73
Posted: 10/29/2012 10:14:12 PM
western kentucky -9.5 McShady
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#74
Posted: 10/29/2012 10:31:14 PM
Can someone run the Sdql for 3 consecutive road games away against the other conference? 

I seem to recall this being a profitable chase angle in the past. 

I tracked it one year ('09?) and if I recall, it was profitable, but somehow lost my excel file on that one. In fact, I think it may actually be better if you avoid game a, and then play games b and c (if necessary) assuming game a loses. 

Roscoe
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#75
Posted: 10/29/2012 10:54:58 PM
nice hit Newfie on 3rd quarter.
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