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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: THE CHASE LOUNGE...
Codearmani send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#26
Posted: 10/29/2012 3:53:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mjnorman59:

Looking at NBA - 

Need to run all teams, but just looked at Nuggets to see.  Took 3 game sets away and 3 game sets home (sets may overlap).

Looks like the under hit in every 3 game set except 1x over last 2 years.  

Anyone play these types of chases and overall success?

Sounds interesting, looking forward to hear about the trends 
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#27
Posted: 10/29/2012 3:55:11 PM

KC +8.5 set number

 

NCAAFB only

6.5 set number 9-0 on the dog ATS

6-4 dog M/L

 6-4 O/U

Stanford 13 @ Wash 17 U

WV 48 @ Texas 45 O

Kansas ST 27 @ 21 Iowa state U

NEB 29 @ NW 28 U

SouFla 25 @ Louvile 27 U

Mich St 16 @ Wisky 13 U

UCLA 45 @ Ariz St 43 O

Florida 9 @ Georgia 16 U

USC 36 @ Arizona 39 O

Just passsing it along.

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#28
Posted: 10/29/2012 4:01:33 PM
I went back and checked cause I remember us being on Stanford at washington Sept. 27 and we (Shady and I) lost going off the -6.5 that was trending in NFL. There weren't many to keep track of until past 2 weeks (6 games in Ncaafb) and they all hit on dog. The other 2 games WV and Iowa St were a week apart. Looks like a reverse trend in CFB
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#29
Posted: 10/29/2012 4:06:04 PM
Newfie...

If u can break down some Set# totals like that. Ill update the Trendz
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#30
Posted: 10/29/2012 4:07:06 PM
Good stuff Newfie.

And are you guys talking about an NBA chase on 3 game home stands?  If so, I may be able to check some stuff with the SDQL database.
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#31
Posted: 10/29/2012 4:11:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Newfie_Bullet:

KC +8.5 set number

 

NCAAFB only

6.5 set number 9-0 on the dog ATS

6-4 dog M/L

 6-4 O/U

Stanford 13 @ Wash 17 U

WV 48 @ Texas 45 O

Kansas ST 27 @ 21 Iowa state U

NEB 29 @ NW 28 U

SouFla 25 @ Louvile 27 U

Mich St 16 @ Wisky 13 U

UCLA 45 @ Ariz St 43 O

Florida 9 @ Georgia 16 U

USC 36 @ Arizona 39 O

Just passsing it along.


I'm a little late to the party so excuse me.  I know that the set number is on that Canadian site.  So you are saying that in CFB when they set there # at 6.5 we are taking the dog of regardless where the number goes?
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#32
Posted: 10/29/2012 4:24:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Go_Nads:

Good stuff Newfie.

And are you guys talking about an NBA chase on 3 game home stands?  If so, I may be able to check some stuff with the SDQL database.

I was just looking at 3-game sets at home and 3 game sets away...so you would have 13 3-game sets each season for home and away, 26 3-game sets total.  leaving out the last 2 home and away games.

Basically thinking does the under (or the over) hit at least 1x every 3 games home and every 3 games away?
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#33
Posted: 10/29/2012 4:36:54 PM
Still here angle you guys kick behind! And no that girl doesn't no yet! Keep up the great work brother like your heat fade. 
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#34
Posted: 10/29/2012 4:44:30 PM
oooh baby, NBA tomorrow! loading up to start the season on

over 186 Celtics/Heat $$$$
Celtics TT over 90 $$$$
Celtics +6 $$
Celtics ML +220 $
small play Celtics ML +220 to the over 186 5:1 $

Celtics are deep this year and the 2nd team can run and score big time. I am on overs to start the season in certain spots after seeing the scoring barrage when starters were in in the 1st halves this preseason and believe this is a great spot. It doesn't look like defenses are set yet league wide and it is much too early for these 2 to have a defensive playoff type battle. This reminds me of when Miami opened up at Dallas last year and watched them get their rings and then went out and blasted them. I'm not saying Celtics will win but I am confident that this team will get their points. 9 of 11 in the series have gone over, Celtics opened on the road last year (104-106 at NY and 107-115 at Mia), 12 of Miami's 1st 13 games went well over this number to start the season last year. These 2 have played early season games against each other to 222 and 219 pts and I expect another 200pt effort. GL
103-100 Celtics
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#35
Posted: 10/29/2012 4:51:38 PM
Here is a link to all the 3 game road trips (just 3 game, not 4, not 2) from the 2011 NBA season with Line, Total, final score, Straight Up Result, ATS Result and Over or Under.  Not sure if this helps or not:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B6JA39cKbuspMjIzT0hIRXpZanM

According to that, there were 57 3 game road trips in 2011

Of the 57 3 game road trips
OVER
10 did not have an OVER hit
20 had the OVER hit in the 1st game
19 had the OVER hit in the 2nd game (after not hitting the 1st)
8 had the OVER hit in the 3rd game (after not hitting the first 2)

UNDER
6 did not have an UNDER hit
34 had the UNDER hit in the 1st game
9 had the UNDER hit in the 2nd game (after not hitting the 1st)
8 had the UNDER hit in the 3rd game (after not hitting the first 2)


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#36
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:01:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by paster21:


I'm a little late to the party so excuse me.  I know that the set number is on that Canadian site.  So you are saying that in CFB when they set there # at 6.5 we are taking the dog of regardless where the number goes?

 

In NFL the fave is 10-3 when that 6.5 shows up (SF -6.5 tonight)

In NCAAFB the dog is 9-0 when that number shows up

You can play those trendz up to you.

 

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#37
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:05:16 PM
Let me know if that is what you guys are looking for and I can work up the 3 game home stands as well.

New to chases, so what is the proper way to bet a 3 game chase (units)?
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#38
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:12:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Go_Nads:

Here is a link to all the 3 game road trips (just 3 game, not 4, not 2) from the 2011 NBA season with Line, Total, final score, Straight Up Result, ATS Result and Over or Under.  Not sure if this helps or not:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B6JA39cKbuspMjIzT0hIRXpZanM

According to that, there were 57 3 game road trips in 2011

Of the 57 3 game road trips
OVER
10 did not have an OVER hit
20 had the OVER hit in the 1st game
19 had the OVER hit in the 2nd game (after not hitting the 1st)
8 had the OVER hit in the 3rd game (after not hitting the first 2)

UNDER
6 did not have an UNDER hit
34 had the UNDER hit in the 1st game
9 had the UNDER hit in the 2nd game (after not hitting the 1st)
8 had the UNDER hit in the 3rd game (after not hitting the first 2)



So the under trend has a 89% success rate.  If you were looking for 200 per series

10,200 wins
9000 in loses figuring -110 juice.

Only 2K for a lot of risk
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#39
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:19:59 PM

 

That is a lot of work I'll do october you do september?

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#40
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:37:21 PM
How do u put a 3 game series together in the NBA? 3 games in a row by the same team vs differ teams?
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#41
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:38:48 PM

I would suggest that someone begin tracking the set lines ATS and set totals on the BB coming up tomorrow and going forward. Much easier to track that way.

 

 

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#42
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:41:48 PM
I would think playing Team Totals  either O/U is a decent Chase in NBA

SW plays alot of TT's so maybe he has an some ideas?
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#43
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:43:50 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by StraightWagers:

oooh baby, NBA tomorrow! loading up to start the season on

over 186 Celtics/Heat $$$$
Celtics TT over 90 $$$$
Celtics +6 $$
Celtics ML +220 $
small play Celtics ML +220 to the over 186 5:1 $

Celtics are deep this year and the 2nd team can run and score big time. I am on overs to start the season in certain spots after seeing the scoring barrage when starters were in in the 1st halves this preseason and believe this is a great spot. It doesn't look like defenses are set yet league wide and it is much too early for these 2 to have a defensive playoff type battle. This reminds me of when Miami opened up at Dallas last year and watched them get their rings and then went out and blasted them. I'm not saying Celtics will win but I am confident that this team will get their points. 9 of 11 in the series have gone over, Celtics opened on the road last year (104-106 at NY and 107-115 at Mia), 12 of Miami's 1st 13 games went well over this number to start the season last year. These 2 have played early season games against each other to 222 and 219 pts and I expect another 200pt effort. GL
103-100 Celtics

 

No nba totals posted for the games yet, proline are cowards lol

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#44
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:45:08 PM
So the under trend has a 89% success rate.  If you were looking for 200 per series

10,200 wins
9000 in loses figuring -110 juice.

Only 2K for a lot of risk
 

If you bet 1 unit under on game 1, you won 34 units, lost 6 units. Game 2 has a bet of 2 units to win 9 more units, lose 12 units. Game 3 has a bet of 3 units to win 8 more units, lose 18 units. Won 51 lost 36. net 15.

Anyone correct me if I'm wrong, please...

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#45
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:57:11 PM
I'll track TT and Totals as much as I can before I get too drunk every night b/c that is 90% of what I invest in. I'm not sure what if any last years trends apply b/c of the late start and abbreviated season with unusual 6 games in 7 nights and what not, but who knows.


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#46
Posted: 10/29/2012 5:57:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Moth61:

So the under trend has a 89% success rate.  If you were looking for 200 per series

10,200 wins
9000 in loses figuring -110 juice.

Only 2K for a lot of risk
 

If you bet 1 unit under on game 1, you won 34 units, lost 6 units. Game 2 has a bet of 2 units to win 9 more units, lose 12 units. Game 3 has a bet of 3 units to win 8 more units, lose 18 units. Won 51 lost 36. net 15.

Anyone correct me if I'm wrong, please...


Maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but I came up with:

57 3 game road trips
Game 1 Under: 34 wins 23 losses
Game 2 Under: 9 wins 14 losses
Game 3 Under: 8 wins 6 losses

34 wins @ 1 unit =  +34 units
23 losses @ 1.1 units = -25.3 units
----------------
9 wins @ 2 units = +18 units
14 losses @ 2.2 units = -30.8 units
----------------
8 wins @ 3 units = +24 units
6 losses @ 3.3 units = -19.8 units

34 - 25.3 + 18 - 30.8 + 24 - 19.8 = 0.1 unit won

If you bumped GAME 3 to 4 units, you would net 1.5 units overall
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#47
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:03:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by StraightWagers:

I'll track TT and Totals as much as I can before I get too drunk every night b/c that is 90% of what I invest in. I'm not sure what if any last years trends apply b/c of the late start and abbreviated season with unusual 6 games in 7 nights and what not, but who knows.



Dont u hit all those Wooden Shoe OVERS being sober? 
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#48
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:05:21 PM
Yes. Nads your math is wrong. Still hope ur in the Fertility business and NOT accounting 
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#49
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:07:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

Yes. Nads your math is wrong. Still hope ur in the Fertility business and NOT accounting 

What the hell am I missing? 
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#50
Posted: 10/29/2012 6:11:06 PM
The meat of what I track is what Vegas sets their totals at in a particular series as that has proven to me to be a great indicator of performance.

Specific example:

last season the opening Total for Bos/Mia was 187.5 for their 1st meeting on 12/27/11...it resulted in a big over at 222 with a 107-115 final score. NOW for their next meeting 3 months later on 4/1/12 the Total is lowered to 185, hmmm. I ask myself why would a total originally set at 187.5 and went way over actually be lowered the next time by 2.5pts? So then I dig into FGM/FGA, FTM/FTA, 3ptM/3ptA and so on and any mitigating factors such as injuries, scheduling etc..More than likely I would have played that under 185 b/c of the reverse total movement and sure enough we get a snooze fest 91-72 result for 163 and a solid under...almost like Vegas tipped their hand with the total. Doesn't work everytime (thus the chase would begin) but over the long haul you can "see" what they are doing.
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