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2012 Playoffs : 8-5-0 +70.48 units

San Francisco Giants +132 (14 units to win 18.48)

Over the last two seasons, Vogelsong is 13-8 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in starts following a team loss.  In these 26 starts, Vogelsong has only allowed more than 3 earned runs in three of those starts.  Here is a breakdown of the earned runs he has allowed in these situations:

0 - 2

1 - 9

2 - 8

3 - 4

4 - 2

5 - 1

Bailey is basically off a no hitter given he only three 4 innings in his last start, but even if you shrug off the post-no hitter curse, then he is on back to back shutout.  Capping this game in simplest form, I just don't see how Bailey doesn't give up a bunch and that should be plenty for Vogelsong.