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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Postseason - MLB Breakdown Sheets
Lucrative send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#176
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:23:43 AM

Curious to hear your thoughts on the series prices? Personally, I see value in the Giants @ +160. Tigers are a bit overpriced after the win over a Yanks team that essentially quit. I am a little concerned with SF being a bit drained after the Cards series, but I just cant pass up a +160 vs the Tigers bullpen.

I was thinking of waiting to hit the series @ a +200 or better price after the Verlander win, but as you stated it's quite possible that SF can take game 1 and ruin the series value for a Giants backer.

 

Anyway, just wanted to hear some other opinions on this one.

 

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#177
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:53:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lucrative:

Curious to hear your thoughts on the series prices? Personally, I see value in the Giants @ +160. Tigers are a bit overpriced after the win over a Yanks team that essentially quit. I am a little concerned with SF being a bit drained after the Cards series, but I just cant pass up a +160 vs the Tigers bullpen.

I was thinking of waiting to hit the series @ a +200 or better price after the Verlander win, but as you stated it's quite possible that SF can take game 1 and ruin the series value for a Giants backer.

 

Anyway, just wanted to hear some other opinions on this one.

 


There's value in San Francisco at the current price.  If they lose game one, I would not be looking to back them for the series.  They'll be left with too many right-handed starters going up against the #2 ranked offense against righties backed by the best pitching squad in the big leagues.  If you like them to win the series I think you have to take the price now.  If they lose today, I think the WS goes to the Tigers.
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#178
Posted: 10/24/2012 12:11:41 PM
silly. im looking at alternative lines and i find this interesting. if you have to pick, would you go game 1 tigers -165 or giants +2(-149)? i feel theres better value getting giants with +2 and at cheaper price. also, theres a big jump from giants +2(-149) to +2 1/2(-200) almost as if bookies dont see tigers winning it by more than 2runs. almost everyone thinks if tigers win it would be low scoring but if giants win it would be high. so why not take giants +2(-149) at home with a leftie and all the momentum right? thoughts please.
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#179
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:11:51 PM
Don't read into the logic behind a sportsbook's vig.  It doesn't represent what they expect will happen.  It represents a value that they think will put 50 percent of the action on either side of the wager.

This game is simple, it can be bet two ways.  Either you take the Giants at +140 for the game and +160 for the series because it is the 'value' play.  Or you don't bet a side in this game at all because you think Verlander will smoke the competition but the price is too steep to try it.

I'm going with the ladder.  Verlander is on fire, noway do I want to be against him.. but I'm not going to pay -160 on the road in the World Series against a top 10 ranked offense against righties when Detroit is playing a lefty without a DH.. that's just ridiculous.
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#180
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:16:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

Don't read into the logic behind a sportsbook's vig.  It doesn't represent what they expect will happen.  It represents a value that they think will put 50 percent of the action on either side of the wager.

This game is simple, it can be bet two ways.  Either you take the Giants at +140 for the game and +160 for the series because it is the 'value' play.  Or you don't bet a side in this game at all because you think Verlander will smoke the competition but the price is too steep to try it.

I'm going with the ladder.  Verlander is on fire, noway do I want to be against him.. but I'm not going to pay -160 on the road in the World Series against a top 10 ranked offense against righties when Detroit is playing a lefty without a DH.. that's just ridiculous.

good stuff. Only disagreement I have is on the first paragraph. I don't belive the 50% thing completely.  I think there are games they have a view, inside info, and other information that allows them to misrepresent a line to the bettor where they feel comfortably they will perceive value in one given side, when they know or feel the other side has a greater chance of winning.  My view of what really goes on....its not always 50/50 they want.

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#181
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:27:13 PM
Si1ly didn't the Yankees throw all of their lefties against Verlander and they couldn't do anything. I'm just saying that I trust Verlander more than I do Zito.
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#182
Posted: 10/24/2012 3:17:49 PM
Hey Si1ly,

If Giants lose tonight what do you think the series line move to? If they lose? Thank you for the awesome info and in-depth analysis!


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#183
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:08:58 PM
sil1y what do you think about fading Zito by playing Tigers O 4 Runs
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#184
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:17:33 PM
tough lines...Thanks for the Sheet
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#185
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:19:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Louis_IV:

good stuff. Only disagreement I have is on the first paragraph. I don't belive the 50% thing completely.  I think there are games they have a view, inside info, and other information that allows them to misrepresent a line to the bettor where they feel comfortably they will perceive value in one given side, when they know or feel the other side has a greater chance of winning.  My view of what really goes on....its not always 50/50 they want.


You're right, when sportsbooks have the time to efficiently darn with us, they will.  But for my purposes, I find it best to assume a static type of market.  It makes a long-term methodology more practical.  If I were to allow myself to get clouded by making qualification judgments on why a line is set the way it's set, I would be forfeiting my primary advantage.  I simply want my numbers - numbers that I believe accurately represent the true winning probability for the game in question - to show substantial value between the line offered by sportsbooks.  The reasons behind that line are irrelevant to me.  Although, if you can figure out which sides the sportsbooks are favoring, it certainly helps narrow down which 'value' lines are keepers and which ones should be tossed back.
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#186
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:20:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Show_Stoppa:

sil1y what do you think about fading Zito by playing Tigers O 4 Runs

Noway, not in this weather in this ballpark and definitely not against a lefty.  Tigers are only an average offense against lefties and they're without the luxury of a DH this game.
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#187
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:21:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by heegs:

Hey Si1ly,

If Giants lose tonight what do you think the series line move to? If they lose? Thank you for the awesome info and in-depth analysis!



If the Giants lose tonight the price will slide well past 200.  They lose home field advantage and the Tigers have a superior starting rotation.  I would say +225 or maybe even higher.
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#188
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:28:32 PM
Hey si1ly,

Good stuff in football and thanks for the sheets man. I like your modeling and the category breakdowns. Great stuff!!!

In regards to GM1, what you think of about:

Giants ML
Giants ML + over 6.5?

I noticed in the last game vs. STL that the giants were hitting pretty good against Motte and Boggs. I believe they were pitching anywhere between 90-101 which is Verlander's sweet spot. Thoughts?
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#189
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:29:40 PM
this game opened where you're model projected it should.  the current line is oozing value and is out of control imo.  Giants are a very good contact hitting team and have great shot @ scraping a couple early runs across.  Verlander is beatable in the playoffs.  He didn't pitch really well last time out against the Yanks.  I'm expecting the Giants to take advantage tonight if he doesn't bring his A+ game 

thanks as always silly 

  
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#190
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:30:17 PM
Also, looking at your MLB Breakdown, does the fundamental sheet include post season? I noticed that you have L1 for Giants... they should be W3 no?

data import error?
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#191
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:34:37 PM
Giants at +1 1/2 for -115 seems to be the play.. eh?
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#192
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:34:45 PM
Thx
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#193
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:37:22 PM
What is verlanders usual time off during the pitching rotation?
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#194
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:39:55 PM
LOVE YOU!
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#195
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:42:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gambler1d:

Si1ly didn't the Yankees throw all of their lefties against Verlander and they couldn't do anything. I'm just saying that I trust Verlander more than I do Zito.



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#196
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:44:03 PM
Also people remember the line also will be influenced by what future bets are out there!
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#197
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:50:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pcz:

Also, looking at your MLB Breakdown, does the fundamental sheet include post season? I noticed that you have L1 for Giants... they should be W3 no?

data import error?

Some of the data (like the record) as well as all the pitching data doesn't update during the postseason.  The sources I pull from don't change - so neither does my data.  At this point, adding anything more to the sample size doesn't help or hurt all that much.  As long as you check how the pitchers and hitters are doing in current form the sheets are more than usable.
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#198
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:51:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MJ2345:

Also people remember the line also will be influenced by what future bets are out there!

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#199
Posted: 10/24/2012 7:05:57 PM

sy1li what is the play tonight for you?

 

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#200
Posted: 10/24/2012 7:09:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


  I wish I could find 45 cents of value this postseason! 


 
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