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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Postseason - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#126
Posted: 10/16/2012 10:48:42 AM
I stand corrected.. my book is offering +165 on the Yankees which is 25 cents of value.  Still a good look if you ask me.  Verlander is a stud, but he's not good enough to lay this kind of chalk against the Yankees.  Should be closer to a -150 spread on the favorite.
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#127
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:06:30 AM
i bit couldn't pass up 0.60 units to win a full unit in the playoffs.
here's hoping the yankees can live up to their season long metrics
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#128
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:16:31 AM
Silly, just sent you a friend request, I was wondering if you see any NFL games that may move significantly between now and Sunday. I have 2 4-team parlays that have hit 3 of 4 and have 1 open slot each that I can fill with any game and want to take the guaranteed money, but might as well see if I can look for a middle opportunity. If you have any ideas please message me or respond here.....

Thanks
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#129
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:51:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bperry23:

Silly, just sent you a friend request, I was wondering if you see any NFL games that may move significantly between now and Sunday. I have 2 4-team parlays that have hit 3 of 4 and have 1 open slot each that I can fill with any game and want to take the guaranteed money, but might as well see if I can look for a middle opportunity. If you have any ideas please message me or respond here.....

Thanks

Busy at work this morning, but I'm going to try and find time to update my databases this afternoon and evening.  The RPI calculations take a few hours to complete.  I'll post breakdown sheets in the NFL forum and I'll let you know what looks good then.  I try and hold my opinions until after I see the numbers - in fact, I haven't even looked at the lines for this week yet.  I don't want to let any of my personal bias get in the way of the raw statistics.
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#130
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:54:46 AM

I know all year Yankees hit righties well but don't you have to cautious with those #'s based on how terribly, guys like Cano, A-Rod, and Swisher have hit?

Also with Jeter being out...

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#131
Posted: 10/16/2012 1:05:09 PM
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#132
Posted: 10/16/2012 2:09:20 PM
 I've won my last 5 MLB ML picks, were mostly road dogs  thanks to STL and Det, but the way the yankees have been playing and the fact verlander is starting tonight makes me stay far away from the NY ML. Might take a look at O/U's TT's and RL's for this game.
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#133
Posted: 10/16/2012 2:51:37 PM
Sounds good roondog.. hard to go against Verlander in October.
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#134
Posted: 10/16/2012 2:59:25 PM
the sheet projection is 9.55 and my book has it at 7. 

Over 7 seems likely to happen one of two ways...

Detroit scores over 7 runs...
                   or
Verlander bombs this game.   

what are your thoughts.... 
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#135
Posted: 10/16/2012 3:02:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by roondog248:

the sheet projection is 9.55 and my book has it at 7. 

Over 7 seems likely to happen one of two ways...

Detroit scores over 7 runs...
                   or
Verlander bombs this game.   

what are your thoughts.... 

If I make any play today it will be on the over.

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#136
Posted: 10/16/2012 3:07:48 PM
and the more likely of those 2 would be detroit scores most of the runs  to push total the over, or runs are scored after verlander leaves. 

any amount of runs could be scored in the 9th if Valverde is in there. 

relief pitchers aren't announced right? I've yet to see this anywhere. 
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#137
Posted: 10/16/2012 3:47:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by roondog248:

and the more likely of those 2 would be detroit scores most of the runs  to push total the over, or runs are scored after verlander leaves. 

any amount of runs could be scored in the 9th if Valverde is in there. 

relief pitchers aren't announced right? I've yet to see this anywhere. 

I playing the under 6.5.

Derek Jeter is the only Yankee that has ever hit Verlander well. And with that said Verlander isnt just the regular ol' Verlander this year. He's on some kind of Alpha Omega level. If you think that Vogelsong's last 4 games have been impressive, then go back and look at Verlanders last two months!!

With that being said. Detroit is averaging like 6 runs a game at on the home and on the road this post-season. I'm basing my pick on Verlander being "JV2012" and posting K's all the way around the outfield fence. Also the Yankees are very good defensively and I dont see them laying down.

I truly believe this will be a pitchers duel and a defensive "small ball" type game.

Parlay: DET ML & under 6.5

GO TIGERS & GO VERLANDER!!!

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#138
Posted: 10/16/2012 3:59:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


If I make any play today it will be on the over.


Other than the stats...(which the law of averages came through in last nights MNF) what makes you lean over? 

Verlander has only given up 3 runs inthe last 5 games as a SP.
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#139
Posted: 10/16/2012 4:12:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BamaTaxMan:

I playing the under 6.5.

Derek Jeter is the only Yankee that has ever hit Verlander well. And with that said Verlander isnt just the regular ol' Verlander this year. He's on some kind of Alpha Omega level. If you think that Vogelsong's last 4 games have been impressive, then go back and look at Verlanders last two months!!

With that being said. Detroit is averaging like 6 runs a game at on the home and on the road this post-season. I'm basing my pick on Verlander being "JV2012" and posting K's all the way around the outfield fence. Also the Yankees are very good defensively and I dont see them laying down.

I truly believe this will be a pitchers duel and a defensive "small ball" type game.

Parlay: DET ML & under 6.5

GO TIGERS & GO VERLANDER!!!



Nice so if Yanks get to 3, you lose.
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#140
Posted: 10/16/2012 4:20:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by roondog248:


Other than the stats...(which the law of averages came through in last nights MNF) what makes you lean over? 

Verlander has only given up 3 runs inthe last 5 games as a SP.

Just stats.. no other reason.  Yankees are down a few right handed hitters - but they're still stacked with lefties.  Tigers bullpen has been garbage the last month.  Both offenses are top 5 no matter how you slice it.  I would have posted a total of 8 in this game with the under juiced at -120.  At 7, it's just too low.  Simple as that really.
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#141
Posted: 10/16/2012 4:21:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMAG:



Nice so if Yanks get to 3, you lose.

Correlated parlays are the worst bet in sports gambling.

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#142
Posted: 10/16/2012 4:39:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Just stats.. no other reason.  Yankees are down a few right handed hitters - but they're still stacked with lefties.  Tigers bullpen has been garbage the last month.  Both offenses are top 5 no matter how you slice it.  I would have posted a total of 8 in this game with the under juiced at -120.  At 7, it's just too low.  Simple as that really.

Verlander pitches better against Lefties though.

wind is blowing in towards home plate at 9mph..

I may place a small wager on tigers RL. This is a tough one to call. 
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#143
Posted: 10/16/2012 9:03:01 PM
gonna be all over the Cards tomorrow i think.. just waiting on sheet to confirm or make be feel better at least.  I'm guessing at worst your sheet will show fair value if not value on the Cards, but once factoring in that Cain is merely an avg pitcher away from SF.. im really liking this play.  Lohse has great metrics at home, recently and in the high leverage and RISP categories.  Might even be value in the RL 
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#144
Posted: 10/16/2012 10:12:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

gonna be all over the Cards tomorrow i think.. just waiting on sheet to confirm or make be feel better at least.  I'm guessing at worst your sheet will show fair value if not value on the Cards, but once factoring in that Cain is merely an avg pitcher away from SF.. im really liking this play.  Lohse has great metrics at home, recently and in the high leverage and RISP categories.  Might even be value in the RL 

I think you're right about the Cards.  I'll run the sheet tonight for ya.
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#145
Posted: 10/16/2012 10:27:45 PM
Sheet's up.  No line value on the Cards.. but I think your analysis is accurate.  I still lean that way with you.  Definitely not a game to back the Giants - it's Cardinals or nothing.
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#146
Posted: 10/16/2012 10:43:02 PM
thanks 
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#147
Posted: 10/16/2012 11:15:50 PM
By the way, Verlander is beast!
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#148
Posted: 10/17/2012 12:32:34 AM
busch not near as hitter friendly I thought (or was hoping) 

in fact, its favored the hurler this year. 

redbirds hit Cain hard last time he visited, albeit 7 Ks
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#149
Posted: 10/17/2012 12:49:19 PM
Wednesday's games are up.  Like Yankees and the over in St. Louis
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#150
Posted: 10/17/2012 1:32:29 PM

leans

Under in Det
Over in STL 
Cardinals
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