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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 2:20 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:05:16 AM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u
'11-12 NBA:  77-80  (49.0%)  -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P:  23-20  (53.2%)  +2.30u
'11-12 NHL-P:  2-1  (66.6%)  +1.10u

'11-12 MLB:  56-35-3 (61.5%)  +16.05u



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#2
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:05:30 AM

2:20 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs Over 8 (+100)

My model has this game projected at 9.5 runs.  With 7 needed to lose, we have 2.5 runs of value above the losing number.  The perception is, the Cubs have a horrible offense, 
Maholm has pitched well lately and Ian Kennedy can still dominate like he did last season.  There is some truth to this, but not as much as gamblers would like to believe.  The Cubs have a horrible offense, that's definitely true.  But is Maholm pitching well?  I have him ranked #144 in my quantitative rankings and looking across his advanced numbers its easy to see why he's so high (ranked #130 or above in every major advanced pitching metric).  He only allowed 1 earned run in his last 2 starts, but in those 14.1 innings he gave up 12 hits against the offenses of Houston and Atlanta.  Certainly good stuff, but not incredible.  And lets not forget that less than a month ago this Arizona offense already faced Maholm and took him for 9 hits in 3.1 innings and sent him to the dugout with 6 earned runs.  The D-Backs have the #1 rated offense against left-handed pitchers and I expect them to continue their success this afternoon against a very hittable pitcher (not to mention the Cubs have the worst bullpen in the majors behind him).  However, the crux of this wager isn't weather the Diamondbacks can put up runs, it's weather the cubs can score off of Kennedy.  Looking closer at Kennedy's season you'll see that he's a very different pitcher than last year.  In 2011, he dominated batters with an elite fastball backed by a very good curve and cutter.  This season his fastball is below league average and his curve ball is his most hittable pitch.  His cutter is his only pitch that he's saving runs with and he's barely better than average at that.  Lacking anything to overpower and dominate his opponents, he hasn't come close to sporting the same respect at the plate.  Batters think they can hit him and they know what pitches to sit on. I think the Cubs can get a couple off him today at home.  One final factor you always need to consider when playing a Wrigley game is the weather.  Looks like a warm day in Chicago with the wind blowing gently out to left center.  Certainly nothing that would hurt an over bet, if anything it will help carry some of Kennedy's fly balls out of the park.
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#3
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:11:25 AM
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#4
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:15:44 AM
unfortunately, the total is closed in my book..
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#5
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:17:01 AM
gl 
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#6
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:23:14 AM
from reading your write up, why wouldn't you say betting the Dbacks would be a safer pick rather than the over? Good write up btw
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#7
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:24:39 AM

BOL with the total, bud

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#8
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:24:53 AM
Great minds think alike

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#9
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:27:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tstove:

from reading your write up, why wouldn't you say betting the Dbacks would be a safer pick rather than the over? Good write up btw

I don't like the way Ian Kennedy is pitching this year.  I lean Arizona and my model projects them to win comfortably.  But I see slightly more value on the total at EV money and I feel better about avoiding backing Kennedy.
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#10
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:28:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ninjutsu25:

unfortunately, the total is closed in my book..

Wrigley day games always go up late.  You should see 8 when your book posts it.  It just hit the market in the last hour.
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#11
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:31:49 AM

DIGGING YOUR PLAY!!!!! BOL

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#12
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:37:38 AM
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#13
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:38:14 AM
Locked and loaded
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#14
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:39:44 AM
Wind is blowing....?
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#15
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:48:31 AM

2012

Kennedy 6-7 4.26 era

Maholm 6-6 4.57 era

Kennedy 4.1 ip 10.38 era vs. CHC

Maholm  3.1 ip 16.20 era vs. ARZ

Since line didn't open at 9 or 9.5 we cannot recommend an over play to clients on the very first game of action.

GL

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#16
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:00:11 PM

Kubel, Upton and Hill will all crank home runs tonight.
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#17
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:01:16 PM
good luck 
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#18
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:01:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

2012

Kennedy 6-7 4.26 era

Maholm 6-6 4.57 era

Kennedy 4.1 ip 10.38 era vs. CHC

Maholm  3.1 ip 16.20 era vs. ARZ

Since line didn't open at 9 or 9.5 we cannot recommend an over play to clients on the very first game of action.

GL


I think the line opened low because of the perceptions I mentioned in my write-up.


Bettors think the Cubs offense sucks.

Bettors think Maholm is currently pitching like an All-Star.

Bettors think Ian Kennedy has the same stuff he had last year when he went 21-4.


Falling back on contrarian principles and not taking the over because the total opened a run lower than expected is missing the point here.  The low total was generated by the public perceptions listed above, not the #'s you posted regarding past meetings and season ERA.  You're giving away value.
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#19
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:01:37 PM

Game 951-952: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.514; Cubs (Maholm) 15.783
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A

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#20
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:02:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gofish3:

Wind is blowing....?

Oh c'mon, don't be lazy man.  Read the write-up, it's the last dang sentence.
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#21
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:03:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thecrippler:

Game 951-952: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.514; Cubs (Maholm) 15.783
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A


What the heck is Dunkel?
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#22
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:09:37 PM
This may be a stupid trend. . . But since 06'. Cubs played every friday after the All Star Break. . . except 1 year. . . But every game has gone under. . . and the cubs have won every game except in 06' against the mets. . . .

i was leaning under before I seen ur post silly. . . . may just stay away though. . .

good luck
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#23
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:13:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bucci020:

This may be a stupid trend. . . But since 06'. Cubs played every friday after the All Star Break. . . except 1 year. . . But every game has gone under. . . and the cubs have won every game except in 06' against the mets. . . .

i was leaning under before I seen ur post silly. . . . may just stay away though. . .

good luck

That's a meaningless trend to me.  Just coincidental.  You can make just as compelling argument for the trend to continue or regress to the mean.  Don't pay attention to things like this.  Way too obscure to mean anything.
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#24
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:14:10 PM
very true. . . good luck silly
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#25
Posted: 7/13/2012 12:22:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Oh c'mon, don't be lazy man.  Read the write-up, it's the last dang sentence.



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