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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Play I love tomorrow
DanTos8715 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:12:08 AM
PIT/DET under 8

Pittsburgh can't hit.  They really can't hit lefties.  Smyly has had one bad start, and the Tigers aren't necessarily lighting up the basepaths.  Jackson being out definitely hurts.  AJ Burnett had one HORRIFIC start, but other than that he hasn't given up more than 2 runs in any start.  Early weather shows a beautiful day with 9mph wind blowing in.

5-2 Tigers, and I think this line will be down to 7.5 by gametime. 
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#2
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:41:26 AM
Why do I never get comments on threads I start?  I guess I need to start creating threads with ridiculous subject headers.
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#3
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:50:47 AM
Personally I don't like it cause I cant see pitt. getting shut out two days in a row. I see a 6-3 kind of game but I don't play over and unders to unpredictable espeically with the garbage bullpens. I would take the under in the Baltimore game if anything.
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#4
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:51:16 AM
I agree with your thought, however,I cant lay the juice with the tigers simply because they havent been hitting and the pen is the worst in the league. The tigers are a tough team to lay money on because the offense is very capable of opening up a game but their intangibles scare the garbage out of me.....beginning with their fearless leader.
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#5
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:51:17 AM
I agree with your thought, however,I cant lay the juice with the tigers simply because they havent been hitting and the pen is the worst in the league. The tigers are a tough team to lay money on because the offense is very capable of opening up a game but their intangibles scare the garbage out of me.....beginning with their fearless leader.
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#6
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:53:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by greg152072:

Personally I don't like it cause I cant see pitt. getting shut out two days in a row. I see a 6-3 kind of game but I don't play over and unders to unpredictable espeically with the garbage bullpens. I would take the under in the Baltimore game if anything.

Yeah I'm leaning hard on that one as well.  The Pirates are the worst scoring team in the league, have scored 2 or fewer runs in over half of their games, and don't hit lefties well.
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#7
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:53:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by amd:

I agree with your thought, however,I cant lay the juice with the tigers simply because they havent been hitting and the pen is the worst in the league. The tigers are a tough team to lay money on because the offense is very capable of opening up a game but their intangibles scare the garbage out of me.....beginning with their fearless leader.

Not taking Tigers, just the under 8.
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#8
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:55:20 AM
Sorry...i didnt comment on the total. Again, tough to cap when you really dont know how many innings smyly will throw. Leyland might take him out in the 6th or he might let him finish the game. Because of this uncertainty, total is unpredictable. As bad as pirates offense is, octavio dotel can make any team look good.
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#9
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:58:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by amd:

Sorry...i didnt comment on the total. Again, tough to cap when you really dont know how many innings smyly will throw. Leyland might take him out in the 6th or he might let him finish the game. Because of this uncertainty, total is unpredictable. As bad as pirates offense is, octavio dotel can make any team look good.

Verlander went the distance so the pen should be rested.  Smyly will probably only go 6, but any bullpen looks good against the Pirates.
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#10
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:00:12 AM
And Dotel has a 3.38 ERA on the year, 2.39 in 49IP career against Pirates.  Benoit and Coke will probably join in on the party as well.
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#11
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:03:29 AM
I dont like the "pitt cant hit angle" mccutchen is a one man wrecking crew and ripping .432 off lefties with a 1.016 OPS. and theres Walker @.281 and Presley @.280. Its dirtybags like tabata who drag that team avg vs lefties down to .220. im not sayin pitt scores 5 runs, but amd is bang on; leyland/tigers pen is a shitshow and could bleed some serious runs late to moose you. a rested pen doesnt mean much when leyland leaves a guy in their to get absolutely shelled. weve seen it all year.

Tigers suck behind. No jackson is huge for them he has a 2.6 WAR, good for #3 amongst hitters. burnett has been "sharp" this year in comparison to his track record, but he could hang a 6 in any inning. i firmly believe he will have a serious regression coming soon 

i cant pull the trigger on a burnett under.


also dont get to bent up its 2am on the east coast on a friday.

GL 
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#12
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:09:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk:

I dont like the "pitt cant hit angle" mccutchen is a one man wrecking crew and ripping .432 off lefties with a 1.016 OPS. and theres Walker @.281 and Presley @.280. Its dirtybags like tabata who drag that team avg vs lefties down to .220. im not sayin pitt scores 5 runs, but amd is bang on; leyland/tigers pen is a shitshow and could bleed some serious runs late to moose you. a rested pen doesnt mean much when leyland leaves a guy in their to get absolutely shelled. weve seen it all year.

Tigers suck behind. No jackson is huge for them he has a 2.6 WAR, good for #3 amongst hitters. burnett has been "sharp" this year in comparison to his track record, but he could hang a 6 in any inning. i firmly believe he will have a serious regression coming soon 

i cant pull the trigger on a burnett under.


also dont get to bent up its 2am on the east coast on a friday.

GL 

You named the only 3 hitters who hit above .231 against lefties.  McCutchen is always a threat, but this is still the worst offense in the league.
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#13
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:10:46 AM

Not really sure what you mean by this either. 
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#14
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:12:01 AM
About the bent up thing.  I'm not drunk.
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#15
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:13:42 AM
You didn't even mention one of the best parts about the under in this one.. Bill Miller as the home plate umpire.. one of the biggest strike zones all of the umpires.... still scared to pull the trigger though.. Burnett is capable of giving up 8 in an inning.. lean to the under. 
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#16
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:15:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eatdust11:

You didn't even mention one of the best parts about the under in this one.. Bill Miller as the home plate umpire.. one of the biggest strike zones all of the umpires.... still scared to pull the trigger though.. Burnett is capable of giving up 8 in an inning.. lean to the under. 

Good point.  I always overlook umpires.  It's a fault of mine.

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#17
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:16:54 AM
Dude I just read your previous picks. You suck, I am taking the over. You are from Michigan so I'm going against your bias. Good luck guys. I'll wait on it to come down to 7.5 I'm also taking the over in the mets and Yankees for some early action.  Best bet of the day tomorrow is on a different thread. La/sa under 190.5 
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#18
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:18:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wolfpack102:

Dude I just read your previous picks. You suck, I am taking the over. You are from Michigan so I'm going against your bias. Good luck guys. I'll wait on it to come down to 7.5 I'm also taking the over in the mets and Yankees for some early action.  Best bet of the day tomorrow is on a different thread. La/sa under 190.5 

What picks? I rarely post picks on here?  The last time I posted picks I went 3-1, so I'm not really sure what you are talking about.  Also, what bias?  If I had a bias my play would be on Detroit.  Go get some sleep, you're either dumb or tired, or both.
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#19
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:27:19 AM
Dude just hours ago you posted that you took the cardinals under 7 and that's after buying it down half a run. You thought it would obviously be low scoring and it was a shoot out. So by that logic you are looking at another "lock" under and I'm going the other way. No offense.
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#20
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:31:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wolfpack102:

Dude just hours ago you posted that you took the cardinals under 7 and that's after buying it down half a run. You thought it would obviously be low scoring and it was a shoot out. So by that logic you are looking at another "lock" under and I'm going the other way. No offense.

Wow, I lost 1 play.  And I never used the word lock.  Good luck on your "early" action and your "overs".
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#21
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:32:04 AM
and I never take advice from someone who uses "dude" to start off every conversation.  
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#22
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:33:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

Why do I never get comments on threads I start?  I guess I need to start creating threads with ridiculous subject headers.

im not tryin to be condescending bro; its two in the morning on the east coast; dont expect too much traffic now.


wow my internet is sketchin hard right now i just lost a whole thing i typed up. long story short:
my point was you have 3 guys who CAN hit lefties on this squad and the team numbers are skewed by dreadful hitters. if they manage to plate a runner or two (say a mcclutchen solo shot or with a man on base) and burnett has a shitty inning, hanging 5+ runs it doesnt leave you much wiggle room for leyland shenanigans and the attrocious pen.

thats just my opinion, like i said im brutal at totals. i mentioned in Dep's thread when he asked about the tigers under today and i said almost the same thing about leyland/pen and said:

"t
hats my opinion......so none of that will prob happen and verlander will toss a perfect game"
 
Pretty damn close; so maybe dont listen to me. always bet YOUR plays; thats all that matters at the end of the day


wolfpack: youre an idiot. youre fading a guy off one pick, and b.c hes from michigan? go back in your thread that noone cares about and post there. dont trash up someones thread with your BS. Seriously. post your plays in your own thread. dont be such a person
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#23
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:38:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk:


im not tryin to be condescending bro; its two in the morning on the east coast; dont expect too much traffic now.


wow my internet is sketchin hard right now i just lost a whole thing i typed up. long story short:
my point was you have 3 guys who CAN hit lefties on this squad and the team numbers are skewed by dreadful hitters. if they manage to plate a runner or two (say a mcclutchen solo shot or with a man on base) and burnett has a shitty inning, hanging 5+ runs it doesnt leave you much wiggle room for leyland shenanigans and the attrocious pen.

thats just my opinion, like i said im brutal at totals. i mentioned in Dep's thread when he asked about the tigers under today and i said almost the same thing about leyland/pen and said:

"t
hats my opinion......so none of that will prob happen and verlander will toss a perfect game"
 
Pretty damn close; so maybe dont listen to me. always bet YOUR plays; thats all that matters at the end of the day


wolfpack: youre an idiot. youre fading a guy off one pick, and b.c hes from michigan? go back in your thread that noone cares about and post there. dont trash up someones thread with your BS. Seriously. post your plays in your own thread. dont be such a person

I'm not just basing it off of this thread.  I know it's late.  You can go back and look at most of my threads, they never get any traffic. I've posted plays during the week and get no response.  Sometimes I have to bump my own threads just to get a bite.  There are two people that get traffic on here, those who have a history on here and lots of followers, or people who make ridiculous statements in there titles.  That's just how I see it.

Yeah anything is possible. I understand the pen can implode or Burnett can implode, but you can only go off of so many things.  I like my chances.

BOL with the Boston play.  Still undecided on it.
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#24
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:47:40 AM
No hard feelings good luck tomorrow. I took $500 on the over tomorrow. I wanted to change my avatar to the posted bet but I can't load iPhone picks as my avatar. Best of luck tomorrow man. Im just busting your balls. 
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#25
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:50:08 AM
You should of waited, the line will drop.  It was under 8 at -110, but it's already at -115.
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