Blind's ML Parlays 2nd 30 Days

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Blind's ML Parlays 2nd 30 Days
Blind_Monkey PM Blind_Monkey
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Posted: 5/14/2012 2:44:34 PM
down4betting   I always do the 2's because of the extra unit cost. I'm not saying we should never bet 3's tho (thats up to how well a person is doing---streaking, game percentage etc...). I will add that all my plays if they are parlays or individual are alway 1 Unit. None of that chasing or 1 Unit today. Large 5 unit next game because I feel strong about the game.I can't say it enough(MONEY MANAGEMENT)
down4betting PM down4betting
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Posted: 5/14/2012 2:54:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Blind_Monkey:

down4betting   I always do the 2's because of the extra unit cost. I'm not saying we should never bet 3's tho (thats up to how well a person is doing---streaking, game percentage etc...). I will add that all my plays if they are parlays or individual are alway 1 Unit. None of that chasing or 1 Unit today. Large 5 unit next game because I feel strong about the game.I can't say it enough(MONEY MANAGEMENT)

I'm a believer in money management as well; that's why I enjoy your threads. I just wanted to clarify this point to see if you used a parlay since you posted all losses for yesterday's results. I played your choices by 2's and still broke even with the Braves and Twins and in combination another play I had on the side. 

I'm really liking today's choices and hope to see you at man. BOL on all your other stuff. 
clugger PM clugger
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Posted: 5/14/2012 3:11:58 PM
Interesting.  Good Luck
Blind_Monkey PM Blind_Monkey
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Posted: 5/15/2012 11:19:04 AM
Results for Monday May 14 ML Parlays

HOU(+162),TB(+126),SEA(+162) 1 U to Win +14.51 U= Loss
HOU(+162),TB(+126),OAK(+184) 1 U to Win +15.82 U=Loss
HOU(+162),SEA(+162),OAK(+184) 1 U to Win +18.5 U= Loss
TB(+126),SEA(+162),OAK(+184) 1 U to Win +15.82 U
= Loss

YTD 23 Wins 105 Loss = +48.16 Units

Starting Bankroll 8,000.00
Current Bankroll 12,811.00

Tuesday May 15 ML Parlays

NYM(+130),PIT(+169),MIN(+121) 1 U to Win +12.67 U
NYM(+130),PIT(+169),BAL(+135) 1 U to Win +13.54 U
NYM(+130),MIN(+121),BAL(+135) 1 U to Win +10.97 U
PIT(+169),MIN(+121),BAL(+135) 1 U to Win +12.97 U
timdogs17 PM timdogs17
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Posted: 5/15/2012 11:23:17 AM
GL
down4betting PM down4betting
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Posted: 5/15/2012 12:15:45 PM
topperchris PM topperchris
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Posted: 5/15/2012 12:57:32 PM
JBecks12 PM JBecks12
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Posted: 5/15/2012 1:12:31 PM
BOL. Like NYM n MIN.
eyemtlaw PM eyemtlaw
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Posted: 5/15/2012 1:32:01 PM
In it to win it!
Blind_Monkey PM Blind_Monkey
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Posted: 5/16/2012 11:15:08 AM
I think I am on a losing skid right now. I will give this system today and tomorrow before making some tweaks to it.  

Results for Tuesday May 15 ML Parlays

NYM(+130),PIT(+169),MIN(+121) 1 U to Win +12.67 U= Loss
NYM(+130),PIT(+169),BAL(+135) 1 U to Win +13.54 U= Loss
NYM(+130),MIN(+121),BAL(+135) 1 U to Win +10.97 U= Loss
PIT(+169),MIN(+121),BAL(+135) 1 U to Win +12.97 U= Loss

YTD 23 Wins 109 Loss = +44.16 Units

Starting Bankroll 8,000.00
Current Bankroll 12,111.00 

Wednesday May 16  ML Parlays

PIT(+135),TOR(+121),BOS(+128) 1 U to Win +10.84 U
PIT(+135),TOR(+121),OAK(+202) 1 U to Win +14.69 U
PIT(+135),BOS(+128),OAK(+202) 1 U to Win +15.18 U
TOR(+121),BOS(+128),OAK(+202) 1 U to Win +14.22 U
eyemtlaw PM eyemtlaw
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Posted: 5/16/2012 11:41:29 AM
I hope today is a good day!
JBecks12 PM JBecks12
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Posted: 5/16/2012 12:54:33 PM
Keep on plugging.

I thought that since you like to study trends you might be interested in a couple about your wins so far:

- your two full sweeps ytd came on payouts ranging between 5.4U to 8.61U

- your record from 1st sweep to 2nd sweep was 6 wins and 43 losses. your record since 2nd sweep to yesterday is 6 wins and 42 losses

- Of the 23 wins till date only 4 bets have been over 10U payouts

- Since Apr 13, you have had one 4-day skid, two 2-day non-win periods (wouldn't call this a skid), and four 1-day non-win periods.

- Currently you are on a 3-day non-win period.

- Your losses/wins ratio was 8:1 before 1st sweep, and it was 5.15:1 before your 2nd sweep. This ratio rose to 5.7:1 during your last 4-day skid, and it stands at 4.74:1 as of yesterday.

- In your 23 wins, the highest individual dog payout has been (+168), and highest juice laid has been (-172). Four/five wins included dog payouts between +150 to +166.

I wanted to do a wins' analysis based on home/away and fav/dog, but ran out of time.

I think there are too few a data points (full sweeps) to read too much into the data, but maybe one inference that could possibly be drawn is that long shot dogs (solely based on ML) seem to not work as well as the medium payout dogs.

BOL today.
PadresRgl PM PadresRgl
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Posted: 5/16/2012 1:53:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JBecks12:

Keep on plugging.

I thought that since you like to study trends you might be interested in a couple about your wins so far:

- your two full sweeps ytd came on payouts ranging between 5.4U to 8.61U

- your record from 1st sweep to 2nd sweep was 6 wins and 43 losses. your record since 2nd sweep to yesterday is 6 wins and 42 losses

- Of the 23 wins till date only 4 bets have been over 10U payouts

- Since Apr 13, you have had one 4-day skid, two 2-day non-win periods (wouldn't call this a skid), and four 1-day non-win periods.

- Currently you are on a 3-day non-win period.

- Your losses/wins ratio was 8:1 before 1st sweep, and it was 5.15:1 before your 2nd sweep. This ratio rose to 5.7:1 during your last 4-day skid, and it stands at 4.74:1 as of yesterday.

- In your 23 wins, the highest individual dog payout has been (+168), and highest juice laid has been (-172). Four/five wins included dog payouts between +150 to +166.

I wanted to do a wins' analysis based on home/away and fav/dog, but ran out of time.

I think there are too few a data points (full sweeps) to read too much into the data, but maybe one inference that could possibly be drawn is that long shot dogs (solely based on ML) seem to not work as well as the medium payout dogs.

BOL today.


That was awesome, going to tail this today
gillster18 PM gillster18
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Posted: 5/16/2012 3:30:25 PM
great work jbecks, love u geogians. hes overdue....
Blind_Monkey PM Blind_Monkey
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Posted: 5/17/2012 10:07:51 AM
Thank you JBecks12. That was awesome work you did there. I had been looking at my own record as well and came to some of the same conclusions that you came up with. You have gone beyond what I have looked at(such as ML odds wins).Today I should win (if luck is on my side) but nevertheless, tweaks are coming for tomorrows game picks.

Results for Wednesday May 16  ML Parlays

PIT(+135),TOR(+121),BOS(+128) 1 U to Win +10.84 U= Loss
PIT(+135),TOR(+121),OAK(+202) 1 U to Win +14.69 U= Loss
PIT(+135),BOS(+128),OAK(+202) 1 U to Win +15.18 U= Loss
TOR(+121),BOS(+128),OAK(+202) 1 U to Win +14.22 U= Loss

YTD 23 Wins 113 Loss = +41.16 Units

Starting Bankroll 8,000.00
Current Bankroll 11,411.00


Thursday May 17 ML Parlays

NYM(+108),MIA(+130),MIN(+194) 1 U to Win +13.07 U
NYM(+108),MIA(+130),OAK(+163) 1 U to Win +11.58 U
NYM(+108),MIN(+194),OAK(+163) 1 U to Win +15.08 U
MIA(+130),MIN(+194),OAK(+163) 1 U to Win +16.78 U

eyemtlaw PM eyemtlaw
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Posted: 5/17/2012 10:57:29 AM
In it to win it. 
PadresRgl PM PadresRgl
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Posted: 5/17/2012 4:26:08 PM
Looking amazing BM!
Runyanb1 PM Runyanb1
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Posted: 5/17/2012 6:04:12 PM

ok bro do we hedge the last one??

 

mrplow5266 PM mrplow5266
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Posted: 5/17/2012 6:15:31 PM
Sweating it out with the A'$ there at the end.

I'm also conflicted on whether to hedge.  I believe blind says he never parlays these bets, and we're already guaranteed a profit on today.  I'm leaning no hedge, unless we are told otherwise by blind.

Good capping today, bro. 
Blind_Monkey PM Blind_Monkey
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Posted: 5/17/2012 6:26:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheEtrain:

Thanks BM...

Here is a link for a simple hedging calculator... http://www.bobbybucks.com/hedge_calculator.php


I am not going to hedge this one,but I would recomend that if you want a to lock in a few more dollars, then for sure hedge. I am greedy for the big one LOL
nextleveldave PM nextleveldave
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Posted: 5/17/2012 7:04:13 PM
you already won 15 units, you can guarantee yourself 2k more. dont be an idiot. hedge and collect 35 units, for only 4 units risked
Blind_Monkey PM Blind_Monkey
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Posted: 5/17/2012 7:49:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nextleveldave:

you already won 15 units, you can guarantee yourself 2k more. dont be an idiot. hedge and collect 35 units, for only 4 units risked


You are correct in that statement nextleveldave. The only reason I didn't hedge is that I havn't fully grasped the correct amount to do yet. For example>When I plugged the figures into the calculator it said to bet 26.44 Units and the Winnings would be +14.99 Units more.Your statement says 4 Units. What am I doing wrong. Help me understand how to get the right amount. ATL was at -147
notes PM notes
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Posted: 5/17/2012 11:07:26 PM
Blind_Monkey,

I do not think there is anything you did wrong. 26.44 is exactly the amount of units you would have had to wager on Atlanta at -147 if you wanted to collect equal amount of guaranteed units regardless of the outcome of the Miami/Atlanta game (I also calculated by hand myself to verify this).

I think what nextleveldave meant by 4 units was, you risked 4 units in the beginning of the day to eventually put yourself in the position where you could have had guaranteed money (15 units in this case), so he was probably saying, "why not".

I wager exclusively on underdogs, and I also came up with all four teams that you had in your parlays as my picks for the day, so I tailed you and did round robin too, so I was also in the position myself where I could have hedged. I let it ride, and now I regret it 

I probably would have hedged if Atlanta was a bit cheaper than -147 (I also use Pinnacle). I thought about hedging by live betting if Miami happened to be up early in the game (so that I could grab Atlanta at a cheaper price), but Miami just got murdered straight up.

Anyway, I like what you are doing, and I might keep checking it out, especially since I exclusively wager on dogs only too. I do believe that dogs are the way to go in baseball.

Best of luck 
eyemtlaw PM eyemtlaw
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Posted: 5/18/2012 1:19:07 AM
I just hedged a little to cover the parlay amounts and a little return, but still left more money on the table since i was hoping Miami would hit. Thanks again for at least earning back the first 3 days of losses back. Lets get the book again!
letsbreakem PM letsbreakem
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Posted: 5/18/2012 2:32:44 AM
The only way you could've hedged the parlays were to place 26.44 on the ATL ML to ensure 14.99 units. I don't think there's any other way.
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