UNDERDOG SYSTEM

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: UNDERDOG SYSTEM
ShadowWarrior PM ShadowWarrior
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quote#226
Posted: 4/20/2012 1:46:16 AM
3 losses on the Cubs u mean.
bikemcr PM bikemcr
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quote#227
Posted: 4/20/2012 4:39:11 AM
Not to be a buttinski but I think it is a 6 unit loss on the Cubs . Still 12 out of 13 ain`t bad !
Tad PM Tad
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quote#228
Posted: 4/20/2012 6:43:16 AM

3 losses*

yes. how does that work? am I missing something?

petertjm PM petertjm
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quote#229
Posted: 4/20/2012 6:49:56 AM
Hi SEmpfer,  thanks for all your work, I have been keeping on eye on your picks, but your winnings dont make sense. Didint you just lose 3 in a row with the cubs  so how can your profit be so high, Am I betting wrotng, I thought that you keep doubling up until you make 100 dollars on each seris?  please let me know where I went wrong.  Pete
semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#230
Posted: 4/20/2012 8:23:17 AM

Pete and everyone.  Here is the math.  I wish I could just attach the spreadsheet but it is too large.

SERIES      1          2          3         win    loss     total

#1 Mets    100                              100               100

#2Cubs   -100     -230      460        130               230 

#3WSOx  100                                                  330

#4Royals  -100    210                                       440

#5Cards    100                                                540

After 5 we are plus 540

 

semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#231
Posted: 4/20/2012 8:30:54 AM

#6  Angels     -100      240              140     680

#7 Indians    115                                      795

#8 Pirates   -100       -200     520    220     1015

#9 A's        140                                       1155

#10 Padres   110                                    1265

#11 Mets    160                                      1425

#12 Reds   -100      -200      420               1545

#13 Cubs  -100       -200     -300  -600         945

Remeber I only played $300 on Red and Cubs yesterday as part of money management.

semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#232
Posted: 4/20/2012 8:34:59 AM
There it is in black and white!  I made money yeaterday becasue I lost 300 on  the Cubs and then won 420 on the Reds.  so I went from 825 to 945.  I lost money on the series but I already had the 600 deducted from the Reds and Cubs game 1&2 losses.   
semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#233
Posted: 4/20/2012 8:51:45 AM
I will not be doing that again.  If any late comers question the calculations moving forward, see posts 231 and 232.  
radunham PM radunham
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quote#234
Posted: 4/20/2012 8:56:19 AM
At a quick glance for me this morning, alot of the series are washes not too many with dogs in them. I do like Twins, Rockies, and I think I have to ride the Cubs train at home against a Reds team that hasn't been able to score very many runs.
semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#235
Posted: 4/20/2012 9:10:46 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rusty80:

Why only chase 3 game series?

2 game series are too short and 4 game series are too csotly if you get swept.  A game 4 loss would cost you 800 on a 100 game 1 wager.  I do like McShady's idea of jumping in on game 2 if the series dog gets beat in game 1.  I will be looking at those opportunites as well. 

semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#236
Posted: 4/20/2012 9:14:17 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bikemcr:

Not to be a buttinski but I think it is a 6 unit loss on the Cubs . Still 12 out of 13 ain`t bad !

 

You are spot on!  6 unit loss on Cubs.  

semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#237
Posted: 4/20/2012 9:54:05 AM

Looking at 2 series for the weekend.

#14  Pirates     +125           Bet  1   100 to win 125

#15 Orioles     +135           Bet 1    100 to win 135

 Good Luck!  

BMatusz (L)
at LAA
JWilliams (R)
JArrieta (R)
at LAA
JWeaver (R)
WChen (L)
at LAA
DHaren (R)

LLynn (R)
at Pit
CMorton (R)
JWestbrook (R)
at Pit
KCorreia (R)
KLohse (R)
at Pit
EBedard (L)
JGarcia (L)
at ChC

 

McShady PM McShady
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quote#238
Posted: 4/20/2012 9:54:13 AM
Yea I was gonna Chase the A's & Astros those last 3 games, but since I already had two winners on Monday, I decided to skip them. Plus I woulda crapped my pants with the Astros going into game 3. But woulda felt better with the 5 spot in the first last night. WoW. I agree 4 games is too much, unless you play the last three after ur team loses. My goal is to play 4 Series a week and make a G. 
semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#239
Posted: 4/20/2012 10:03:56 AM
If Mets win tonight, I may jump into game 2 with the Giants.  
semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#240
Posted: 4/20/2012 10:11:58 AM

OVERALL SERIES RECORD .....12-1     +945

Overall game record                     12-11  

GAME 1       7-6
GAME 2       2-4
GAME 3       3-1
 
In what other system can you be one game over .500 and still be up a G? 
 
we have only had to play one favorite so far this season. 
Denverb PM Denverb
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quote#241
Posted: 4/20/2012 10:21:26 AM
Even though the Angels have looked like crap that may be a nail biter.
Hopefully they get it done tonight.
As always BOL guys
QBUN PM QBUN
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quote#242
Posted: 4/20/2012 10:22:20 AM
good luck boss and lets keep d $$$ train moving!!
Daddiojoe PM Daddiojoe
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quote#243
Posted: 4/20/2012 10:31:24 AM

Just for the sake of discussion.  Lets say there are (5) 3 game series that start on same day.  Games 1 - 5 with teams a & b for each game.

For the first game you bet on team 3a and it loses.  And to keep it simple lets say all the "a" teams lose in the other 4 games.

You bet on team 3a in the second game of the series and it loses again.

But teams 1a and 2a both won game 2 of their series leaving teams 3a, 4a and 5a as being one game from being swept in their series.

And lets say team 4a is Detroit and has Verlander going and 5a is the Phils and they have Halladay going.  Team 3a has Joe Schmuck going. 

Since all (3) teams are 0-2 would you consider going with either 4a or 5a instead of 3a whom you have bet on ? 

 

bikemcr PM bikemcr
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quote#244
Posted: 4/20/2012 10:43:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by semperfi19:

OVERALL SERIES RECORD .....12-1     +945

Overall game record                     12-11  

GAME 1       7-6
GAME 2       2-4
GAME 3       3-1
 
In what other system can you be one game over .500 and still be up a G? 
 
we have only had to play one favorite so far this season. 
Like I think said before this is the best sports system I have come across ... I was not questioning  your honesty either just pointing out you lost as I did 6 units on the Cubs . Up almost 10 units in 2 weeks is great !
semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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quote#245
Posted: 4/20/2012 11:02:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Daddiojoe:

Just for the sake of discussion.  Lets say there are (5) 3 game series that start on same day.  Games 1 - 5 with teams a & b for each game.

For the first game you bet on team 3a and it loses.  And to keep it simple lets say all the "a" teams lose in the other 4 games.

You bet on team 3a in the second game of the series and it loses again.

But teams 1a and 2a both won game 2 of their series leaving teams 3a, 4a and 5a as being one game from being swept in their series.

And lets say team 4a is Detroit and has Verlander going and 5a is the Phils and they have Halladay going.  Team 3a has Joe Schmuck going. 

Since all (3) teams are 0-2 would you consider going with either 4a or 5a instead of 3a whom you have bet on ? 

 

WOW!  If you are asking me would I switch to the other side of the bet.  I would most likely just cut my losses and not play the third game.  If Verlander is the fav against Joe SMoe the line would be  -180 or higher and I will nevr lay that kind of juice.  

athlete1010 PM athlete1010
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quote#246
Posted: 4/20/2012 11:02:41 AM
Looks like you are doing well, I am going to jump in on 14 and 15 and also play the Dbacks starting today in the second game of the 4 game series.
hardyvault PM hardyvault
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quote#247
Posted: 4/20/2012 11:20:00 AM
Semper you're showing a lot of patience for a jar-head. You've documented clearly, been kind enough to share your winning system, and gone above and beyond to explain it. If some of these guys can't read through the thread and grasp the concept, let em stew in their own ignorance and go back to their own hit or miss system.

Lead, follow or get the darn out of the way, boys.
Daddiojoe PM Daddiojoe
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quote#248
Posted: 4/20/2012 11:25:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by semperfi19:

WOW!  If you are asking me would I switch to the other side of the bet.  I would most likely just cut my losses and not play the third game.  If Verlander is the fav against Joe SMoe the line would be  -180 or higher and I will nevr lay that kind of juice.  

 

No - not switch to the other side of the bet on the same series that you have been betting on BUT would you switch to a totally different series and bet on the team that was 0-2 because you thought they had a better chance of winning.  (Verlander and Halladay probably bad examples because of the juice)

Lets say all things being relatively equal odds/juice wise - would you consider, for that 3rd game bet, betting on an 0-2 team from a different series that what you have been betting on if you felt it was a better bet ?

Again - just for sake of discussion.  I like your premise and it has certainly gotten me thinking.

Another thought - lets say you lay off of game 1 of a series and then you bet on the loser of game 1 in game 2, and then game 3 if necessary.  This would give you two games to make your $unit but limit your exposure to only 3 units while keeping the odds of a non-sweep factored in.

If I'm overthinking this tell me to shut up and I will.

Thanks for your input.

McShady PM McShady
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quote#249
Posted: 4/20/2012 11:29:44 AM
Daddio... The pitcher matchups are not secret. We look at them as a major part of the decision process. Most gamblers wake up each day and only look at the action on the board. We look at the action for the week. Move a couple rocks to find the gold. 
PorkLongandGood PM PorkLongandGood
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quote#250
Posted: 4/20/2012 11:38:41 AM

This system does very well thank you for all the imput and time guys, keep up the great work.  BOL

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