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[MLB Betting] Topic: MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation |
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pramsey1843 |
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#201 Posted: 4/21/2012 10:51:59 AM Rashad Evans +400 (0.5x) Ben Rothwell +250 (0.25x) Miguel Torres -120 (0.5x) Efrain Escudero +155 (0.25x) |
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pramsey1843 |
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#202 Posted: 4/21/2012 10:54:31 AM Warriors +14 (2x) |
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jakas75 |
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#203 Posted: 4/21/2012 11:22:45 AM |
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Sidehatch |
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#204 Posted: 4/21/2012 11:27:06 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by pramsey1843:
Phillies -142 (2x)
Diamondbacks 116 (1x)
Cardinals -125 (2x)
Nationals -160 (1x)
White Sox -108 (2x)
Dodgers -1.5 -120 (2x)
A's -1.5 170 (1x)
My new formula likes all of your picks except for Oakland and the DBacks. BOL |
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pramsey1843 |
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#205 Posted: 4/21/2012 2:42:52 PM Summary of Today's card Phillies -142 (2x)
Diamondbacks 116 (1x)
Cardinals -125 (2x)
Nationals -160 (1x)
White Sox -108 (2x)
Dodgers -1.5 -120 (2x)
A's -1.5 170 (1x)
Capitals 165 (1x)
Senators 156 (1x)
Sharks 171 (1x)
Blackhawks 122 (1x)
Tottenham -110 (1x)
Fulham -115 (1x)
Aston Villa 110 (1x)
Werder Bremen 220 (1x)
Real Madrid 375 (1x)
Rashad Evans +400 (0.5x) Ben Rothwell +250 (0.25x) Miguel Torres -120 (0.5x) Efrain Escudero +155 (0.25x)
Mavericks +8 (2x) Warriors +14 (2x) |
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Berts47 |
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#206 Posted: 4/21/2012 3:04:31 PM |
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pramsey1843 |
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#207 Posted: 4/21/2012 3:58:38 PM |
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alangrrbs |
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#208 Posted: 4/21/2012 5:47:56 PM
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pramsey1843 |
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#209 Posted: 4/22/2012 12:13:21 AM |
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pramsey1843 |
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#210 Posted: 4/22/2012 12:40:59 AM |
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pramsey1843 |
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#211 Posted: 4/22/2012 12:56:26 AM Kings -4 (2x)
Giants -121 (2x) Cardinals -130 (2x) Blue Jays -120 (2x) Dodgers -133 (2x) Yankees -130 (2x) Diamondbacks -136 (2x) Phillies 106 (4x) |
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wizardofroz |
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#212 Posted: 4/22/2012 1:27:50 AM  I think you left out a game on the schedule and only made 30 selections today.
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pramsey1843 |
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#213 Posted: 4/22/2012 10:45:50 AM |
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pramsey1843 |
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#214 Posted: 4/22/2012 10:48:03 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by pramsey1843: Thunder -1 (4x) Kings -4 (2x)
Giants -121 (2x) Cardinals -130 (2x) Blue Jays -120 (2x) Dodgers -133 (2x) Yankees -130 (2x) Diamondbacks -136 (2x) Phillies 106 (4x)
Adding Kings +146 (1x) |
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wizardofroz |
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#215 Posted: 4/22/2012 9:26:53 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by pramsey1843:
Sorry I designed a system that loves action because I love action.
To each their own, but being disciplined and selective beats the hell out of getting crushed by the vigorish.
Action junkies regularly go broke and rarely win, but good luck with your system. |
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pramsey1843 |
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#216 Posted: 4/22/2012 10:41:37 PM
3-2 -0.66 units for the day +22.84 units overall.
Making more plays does not make you go broke any quicker. It gets you to where you are going faster. If my system is good, the more plays I make the more money I will make. If I make ten bets a day and you make one bet a day. We will both be where we are in 10,000 wagers. If my system is good, I will be better off than you after 10,000 wagers. I will just get there faster. When you make any other investment people tell you to diversify. Same holds true here. If I make ten plays, risk is spread over all of the plays. My system worked last year. It has been back tested with 5 years of data. We are up this year. I am up 25.2 units in basketball, 31.8 units in hockey, 19.2 units in soccer, and down 7 units in tennis/golf/mma/boxing this year. I have no system with those. A little bit of educated guessing and entertainment. I am touting a baseball system that is winning. I am up $2284 in three weeks. Not sure what the problem is. |
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alangrrbs |
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#217 Posted: 4/22/2012 11:04:56 PM
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Numero_Uno |
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#218 Posted: 4/22/2012 11:19:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by pramsey1843: My system is winning.
3-2 -0.66 units for the day +22.84 units overall.
Making more plays does not make you go broke any quicker. It gets you to where you are going faster. If my system is good, the more plays I make the more money I will make. If I make ten bets a day and you make one bet a day. We will both be where we are in 10,000 wagers. If my system is good, I will be better off than you after 10,000 wagers. I will just get there faster. When you make any other investment people tell you to diversify. Same holds true here. If I make ten plays, risk is spread over all of the plays. My system worked last year. It has been back tested with 5 years of data. We are up this year. I am up 25.2 units in basketball, 31.8 units in hockey, 19.2 units in soccer, and down 7 units in tennis/golf/mma/boxing this year. I have no system with those. A little bit of educated guessing and entertainment. I am touting a baseball system that is winning. I am up $2284 in three weeks. Not sure what the problem is.
While your system definitely is doing well and I applaud you for your hard work, I am going to have to disagree a bit with your logic. I am a low volume better myself (typically 10-12 plays a week in baseball). Anyways, I have a finite amount of funds to bet, so regardless of how many plays I am making, the total amount invested will be no different. The only difference will be the size of the bet. So, if we both hit at the same percentage, we should get to where we want to go at the same time.
With that said, I have no problem with what you are doing and applaud you for the fact that it works for you. Just pointing out that low volume, high dollar plays can work just the same. |
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pramsey1843 |
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#219 Posted: 4/22/2012 11:47:01 PM |
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pramsey1843 |
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#220 Posted: 4/22/2012 11:53:40 PM Early play Yankees 125 (2x)Rockies 103 (2x) Blue Jays -101 (4x) Cardinals -113 (4x) A's 100 (1x) Diamondbacks -115 (1x)
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pramsey1843 |
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#221 Posted: 4/23/2012 11:54:18 AM |
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pramsey1843 |
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#222 Posted: 4/23/2012 11:54:49 AM |
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hardyvault |
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#223 Posted: 4/23/2012 1:15:32 PM
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pramsey1843 |
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#224 Posted: 4/23/2012 5:05:38 PM Rockies 103 (2x) Blue Jays -101 (4x) Cardinals -113 (4x) A's 100 (1x) Diamondbacks -115 (1x) Giants -106 (2x)
Coyotes 128 (1x)
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pramsey1843 |
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#225 Posted: 4/23/2012 11:42:42 PM Chelsea u3 105 (2x) Panthers 141 (1x)
Nationals -119 (5x) Yankees 132 (2x) Phillies -114 (1x) Giants -103 (3x) Rockies 102 (2x) Blue Jays -113 (4x) Mets 104 (1x) Dodgers 106 (2x)
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