I am going to be implementing an 8 point teaser system for the NBA this season. This is more of an experiment than anything. However, I believe there is very little value in betting ATS. Whether a team wins by 10 or 9 to cover 9.5 is very arbitrary, but if you tease it you simply the game and make it generalization. Does this team at least win, not get blown out, etc.
My best sport is football. I have posted picks all year. I am doing quite well and I expect to do even better as the year progresses. Football is an easier sport to bet though because in basketball shooting percentages night to night are very, very random. There is an element of psychology and motivation that I think more skilled betters know how to account for, but with teams playing every night it does get crazy. You also have 2/3 of the league that in my opinion just isn't any good and it is difficult to predict if they'll show up. However, I am going to see if I can win in the NBA. For years, I struggled with football and eventually learned what things work and what doesn't work with betting games . . . basically learned what factors are important and how to bet games. The NBA does have some similarities in that it has a stock market like function where you have to buy low and sell high often give public perception in relation to your own personal judgment on particular teams.
I highly recommending checking out my football teaser thread if you want to make some big money. But I think I got a shot to win consistently here too. It is just trickier because there are less games on a nightly schedule to pick from and some teams in my opinion are "unteaseable" because they are such high variation teams. You'll see in my football thread that I try to key in on low variation games.
Tonight's bet will be a 4.5 point teaser. I am usually doing 8, but I forgot to post this before the Cleveland game. So as a rare exception I'm doing a 4.5 point 2 team tease that pays roughly the same.
I am going to be implementing an 8 point teaser system for the NBA this season. This is more of an experiment than anything. However, I believe there is very little value in betting ATS. Whether a team wins by 10 or 9 to cover 9.5 is very arbitrary, but if you tease it you simply the game and make it generalization. Does this team at least win, not get blown out, etc.
My best sport is football. I have posted picks all year. I am doing quite well and I expect to do even better as the year progresses. Football is an easier sport to bet though because in basketball shooting percentages night to night are very, very random. There is an element of psychology and motivation that I think more skilled betters know how to account for, but with teams playing every night it does get crazy. You also have 2/3 of the league that in my opinion just isn't any good and it is difficult to predict if they'll show up. However, I am going to see if I can win in the NBA. For years, I struggled with football and eventually learned what things work and what doesn't work with betting games . . . basically learned what factors are important and how to bet games. The NBA does have some similarities in that it has a stock market like function where you have to buy low and sell high often give public perception in relation to your own personal judgment on particular teams.
I highly recommending checking out my football teaser thread if you want to make some big money. But I think I got a shot to win consistently here too. It is just trickier because there are less games on a nightly schedule to pick from and some teams in my opinion are "unteaseable" because they are such high variation teams. You'll see in my football thread that I try to key in on low variation games.
Tonight's bet will be a 4.5 point teaser. I am usually doing 8, but I forgot to post this before the Cleveland game. So as a rare exception I'm doing a 4.5 point 2 team tease that pays roughly the same.
These teasers pay out about 0.8 as an FYI. The basis of tonight's bets are that SA is very reliable. They beat up all mediocre to bad teams at home. They absolutely own Utah. GS struggled with Portland in the playoffs last year. They lost game 3 in Portland and was lucky to take game 4 in Portland. They also lost by 40 once in the regular season. Portland lost to LAC at home and I think they'll want to get up for this particular game especially after last season. Also, GS is still figuring themselves and they are coming off a win so I don't think they will have the same type of fire as they did after the 30 point loss to SA.
These teasers pay out about 0.8 as an FYI. The basis of tonight's bets are that SA is very reliable. They beat up all mediocre to bad teams at home. They absolutely own Utah. GS struggled with Portland in the playoffs last year. They lost game 3 in Portland and was lucky to take game 4 in Portland. They also lost by 40 once in the regular season. Portland lost to LAC at home and I think they'll want to get up for this particular game especially after last season. Also, GS is still figuring themselves and they are coming off a win so I don't think they will have the same type of fire as they did after the 30 point loss to SA.
Utah with 38 points in the first quarter at SA LOL. This is why the NBA is brutal. They are a pretty bad offensive team against maybe the best defensive team in their building. But just so much variation in basketball. I'm hopeful I can figure out how to win here after football season so next 2 months are like a guinea pig. I think SA wins this game still because Utah has such a limited ceiling in this matchup, but hopefully they don't do it by only 4-5 points and screw me over.
As an fyi, I will probably try this also with NCAA, or something similar. I think NCAA is easier because teams don't play every day. They give more effort, you have lots of history in matchups between teams in conference matchups, and less points are scored so teasers are more valuable although treated the same by the sportsbooks. The best time to bet though is the first couple rounds of the tourney, and the setback of NCAA is you have no idea where teams are at until a ways into the season.
Utah with 38 points in the first quarter at SA LOL. This is why the NBA is brutal. They are a pretty bad offensive team against maybe the best defensive team in their building. But just so much variation in basketball. I'm hopeful I can figure out how to win here after football season so next 2 months are like a guinea pig. I think SA wins this game still because Utah has such a limited ceiling in this matchup, but hopefully they don't do it by only 4-5 points and screw me over.
As an fyi, I will probably try this also with NCAA, or something similar. I think NCAA is easier because teams don't play every day. They give more effort, you have lots of history in matchups between teams in conference matchups, and less points are scored so teasers are more valuable although treated the same by the sportsbooks. The best time to bet though is the first couple rounds of the tourney, and the setback of NCAA is you have no idea where teams are at until a ways into the season.
On one interesting note, it's a bit weird seeing Tony Parker becoming a near non factor now for SA. He is 34 only but so much mileage. Ginobili is 39 but at least can give them 9-10 a game and has proven be much more durable in time like Duncan. Parker just doesn't have the quickness to get to the basket anymore and his mid range jumper is getting worse like Duncan's did around this time. I guess he can still pass so he has some use but they'll really miss his offense.
On one interesting note, it's a bit weird seeing Tony Parker becoming a near non factor now for SA. He is 34 only but so much mileage. Ginobili is 39 but at least can give them 9-10 a game and has proven be much more durable in time like Duncan. Parker just doesn't have the quickness to get to the basket anymore and his mid range jumper is getting worse like Duncan's did around this time. I guess he can still pass so he has some use but they'll really miss his offense.
Gonna actually correct this. I noticed most of the books finished at GS -8.5 -115.
So . . .
4. Cle -1 Bos +16.5 LAC 0
5. Cle -1 Bos +16.5 LAL +14.5
Boston naturally is down by 11 with a minute left and loses by exactly 16, which is pretty hard to do. I ignored the half point when I originally posted the picks. The original line I looked at was BOL. I think it was 8 there. Every other book showed 8.5. Also, the SAS line is a half point smaller fav than the other books. So looks like my bet won with most books and lost with some. Guess I will just no action this for record keeping purposes. But still get bum f*****d again.
Gonna actually correct this. I noticed most of the books finished at GS -8.5 -115.
So . . .
4. Cle -1 Bos +16.5 LAC 0
5. Cle -1 Bos +16.5 LAL +14.5
Boston naturally is down by 11 with a minute left and loses by exactly 16, which is pretty hard to do. I ignored the half point when I originally posted the picks. The original line I looked at was BOL. I think it was 8 there. Every other book showed 8.5. Also, the SAS line is a half point smaller fav than the other books. So looks like my bet won with most books and lost with some. Guess I will just no action this for record keeping purposes. But still get bum f*****d again.
I mean it should probably be 4-7. I took no action on 2 bets that should have won half a point almost everywhere.
I think I'm seeing these games a little bit better overall now. The Minn Sa game I got pretty unlucky to lose on. And LAC was a surprise total no show at home vs GS where they almost always play them to single digits. But the NBA is a feel thing. Very tough to bet. I take a stock market approach. I jump on teams when their stock drops after a loss and jump off when a team is due to lose a game. That's the right approach to take and I think it will show over time . . . because the fact of the matter is these teams really are all fairly close together with the exception of GS.
I mean it should probably be 4-7. I took no action on 2 bets that should have won half a point almost everywhere.
I think I'm seeing these games a little bit better overall now. The Minn Sa game I got pretty unlucky to lose on. And LAC was a surprise total no show at home vs GS where they almost always play them to single digits. But the NBA is a feel thing. Very tough to bet. I take a stock market approach. I jump on teams when their stock drops after a loss and jump off when a team is due to lose a game. That's the right approach to take and I think it will show over time . . . because the fact of the matter is these teams really are all fairly close together with the exception of GS.
Okay look guys, did I not say I'm doing an experiment here? Read the top. It's called sample size. I'm not stopping after 10 bets. That's called being a quitter and a loser. If you don't like my bets, that's fine. Go look elsewhere. I'm not even betting these picks. If I'm this bad after 50 bets then I'll probably quit.
I'm winning the games I'm most confident about. The Orlando bet I actually switched from Charlotte originally. Overthought that one. And Isiah Thomas being out was too much for Boston I had a feeling Toronto would win although it was a back to back on the road with Boston having a day off. I went with x's and o's over gut which was a mistake.
Part of being a winner doing this is understanding why you lost, and making adjustments. Tomorrow I got some games that are easier to read so I expect to get back on the board.
Regardless, the NBA is brutal to bet. Almost no one makes a living betting this sport. There's very little logic in these bets . . . it's almost all gaging feel and motivation on particular nights.
Okay look guys, did I not say I'm doing an experiment here? Read the top. It's called sample size. I'm not stopping after 10 bets. That's called being a quitter and a loser. If you don't like my bets, that's fine. Go look elsewhere. I'm not even betting these picks. If I'm this bad after 50 bets then I'll probably quit.
I'm winning the games I'm most confident about. The Orlando bet I actually switched from Charlotte originally. Overthought that one. And Isiah Thomas being out was too much for Boston I had a feeling Toronto would win although it was a back to back on the road with Boston having a day off. I went with x's and o's over gut which was a mistake.
Part of being a winner doing this is understanding why you lost, and making adjustments. Tomorrow I got some games that are easier to read so I expect to get back on the board.
Regardless, the NBA is brutal to bet. Almost no one makes a living betting this sport. There's very little logic in these bets . . . it's almost all gaging feel and motivation on particular nights.
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