NBA is coming. And as always FF reminds you something at the beginning of the season. There are 1230 games during NBA regular season. That's about 7 games per night or with other words you will have A LOT of opportunities to invest your money in the next 6 months. Don't rush it... be discipline. Just enjoy the first days without risking anything cause losing streak at the start can demotivate you and tilt you for the next months which is equal to betting disaster.
Best betting strategy right now is to find some ML dog for outright win. At the beginning of the season favorites are more sexy to take for the mass of people who bet for whatever reason. That give the serious handicappers good underdog handicap and ML lines which could have some nice edge.
Don't underestimate road teams right now. As favorites, home teams get much more love and the lines are slightly inflated. That's sportbooks due cause they also don't know what to do with some games. Here is little proof of my words:
Since 1995 At the start of the NBA regular season (first 14 games per team) small road underdogs between 2 and 6.5 line are 657-555-23 (54.2%) ATS with avg line of 4.3. Since 2010 (recent years) the results are better 199-141-6 (58.5%) with avg line of 4.2.
Since 1995 At the start of the NBA regular season (first 14 games per team) home favorites that won the game (1954 games) covered in just 68.9%. Since 2009 only 65%... In the remainder of the season (from game number 15 till end) home favorites covered 70.4% of the games they won. Since 2009 71.1%...
This big sample size of games is a real deal and show us that there are hidden road underdogs money on the table at the start of the season. The big question is which of these underdogs will show up. And that's the hardest task to be accomplished cause betting blindly isn't good idea. And we are betting mostly blindfold at the start of the season.
As a disciplined bettor who plays small sample games during regular season with big money I'm staying away right now but if I see some nice ML underdog edge could put some little cash just for fun
BOL fellas Visit my threads cause you will find always something interesting and valuable here.
NBA is coming. And as always FF reminds you something at the beginning of the season. There are 1230 games during NBA regular season. That's about 7 games per night or with other words you will have A LOT of opportunities to invest your money in the next 6 months. Don't rush it... be discipline. Just enjoy the first days without risking anything cause losing streak at the start can demotivate you and tilt you for the next months which is equal to betting disaster.
Best betting strategy right now is to find some ML dog for outright win. At the beginning of the season favorites are more sexy to take for the mass of people who bet for whatever reason. That give the serious handicappers good underdog handicap and ML lines which could have some nice edge.
Don't underestimate road teams right now. As favorites, home teams get much more love and the lines are slightly inflated. That's sportbooks due cause they also don't know what to do with some games. Here is little proof of my words:
Since 1995 At the start of the NBA regular season (first 14 games per team) small road underdogs between 2 and 6.5 line are 657-555-23 (54.2%) ATS with avg line of 4.3. Since 2010 (recent years) the results are better 199-141-6 (58.5%) with avg line of 4.2.
Since 1995 At the start of the NBA regular season (first 14 games per team) home favorites that won the game (1954 games) covered in just 68.9%. Since 2009 only 65%... In the remainder of the season (from game number 15 till end) home favorites covered 70.4% of the games they won. Since 2009 71.1%...
This big sample size of games is a real deal and show us that there are hidden road underdogs money on the table at the start of the season. The big question is which of these underdogs will show up. And that's the hardest task to be accomplished cause betting blindly isn't good idea. And we are betting mostly blindfold at the start of the season.
As a disciplined bettor who plays small sample games during regular season with big money I'm staying away right now but if I see some nice ML underdog edge could put some little cash just for fun
BOL fellas Visit my threads cause you will find always something interesting and valuable here.
Funk. Great to see you posting again and spreading wisdom.
Season comes back quick. Agree best to wait and play dogs early. No doubt warriors will be over flated ats. Although I think warriors crushed early lines last year.
Funk. Great to see you posting again and spreading wisdom.
Season comes back quick. Agree best to wait and play dogs early. No doubt warriors will be over flated ats. Although I think warriors crushed early lines last year.
Tigers2013 What's up my man. Glad to see you here year after year.
You can check my thread called "Asian Corners System" on soccer forum. I made some nice edge corners system which is 1-0 right now (yeah...) so let see if I found the golden monkey or it's just another BS. As I know you love my cards soccer bets I'm on Chievo - Bologna - Under 6 cards (that's game from Italian Serie A) tomorrow. The line should be 5 or 5.5 at best and I will take this 0.5 point as a gift.
Warriors will be inflated for sure but I know something from previous two seasons. Betting against Warriors is never a good idea. They just kill the spreads. Actually I try to avoid GSW games. Small dogs are more tempting for me cause of the trends I posted above.
Tigers2013 What's up my man. Glad to see you here year after year.
You can check my thread called "Asian Corners System" on soccer forum. I made some nice edge corners system which is 1-0 right now (yeah...) so let see if I found the golden monkey or it's just another BS. As I know you love my cards soccer bets I'm on Chievo - Bologna - Under 6 cards (that's game from Italian Serie A) tomorrow. The line should be 5 or 5.5 at best and I will take this 0.5 point as a gift.
Warriors will be inflated for sure but I know something from previous two seasons. Betting against Warriors is never a good idea. They just kill the spreads. Actually I try to avoid GSW games. Small dogs are more tempting for me cause of the trends I posted above.
yorosan BOL SPark1 Toothfairy1 There are bets in soccer for penalties (yellow and red cards). Yellow is count as 1 and red is count as 2. The worse thing is that very few sportbooks offer such type of bets. Only the biggest and most popular like bet365 for example have them. Vituperate Thanks for the kind words. You know that I don't just throw some picks in peoples faces here. Even when I lose I know that I had decent logic behind my bets. BOL
yorosan BOL SPark1 Toothfairy1 There are bets in soccer for penalties (yellow and red cards). Yellow is count as 1 and red is count as 2. The worse thing is that very few sportbooks offer such type of bets. Only the biggest and most popular like bet365 for example have them. Vituperate Thanks for the kind words. You know that I don't just throw some picks in peoples faces here. Even when I lose I know that I had decent logic behind my bets. BOL
Since 1996 in the first 17 games of the regular season road underdogs which won more regular season games in the last season than their home favorite opponents are 568-472-28 (54.6%) with avg line of 4.5.
If the home favorite is on 1 day or more rest and the road dog is on 0, 1 or 2 days rest the results are better: 431-339-24 (56.0%)
with avg line of 4.5. That's almost 100 games W-L ATS dif with such big sample of games past 20 years.
If you are wonder why rested favorites give better results for the road underdog than b2b favorites the answer is very simple. So early in the season b2b is not such factor as later in the season. REMEMBER that! Sportbooks inflate early season lines cause of b2b...and the numbers I posted are a proof of that. Bettors love to bet against b2b teams but early in the season that's not winning strategy. That's the reason bettors are trapped with bad lines against b2b teams in the first month of NBA. I have tones of these numbers. They always help to understand the game and how different factors impact on the outcome.
Since 1996 in the first 17 games of the regular season road underdogs which won more regular season games in the last season than their home favorite opponents are 568-472-28 (54.6%) with avg line of 4.5.
If the home favorite is on 1 day or more rest and the road dog is on 0, 1 or 2 days rest the results are better: 431-339-24 (56.0%)
with avg line of 4.5. That's almost 100 games W-L ATS dif with such big sample of games past 20 years.
If you are wonder why rested favorites give better results for the road underdog than b2b favorites the answer is very simple. So early in the season b2b is not such factor as later in the season. REMEMBER that! Sportbooks inflate early season lines cause of b2b...and the numbers I posted are a proof of that. Bettors love to bet against b2b teams but early in the season that's not winning strategy. That's the reason bettors are trapped with bad lines against b2b teams in the first month of NBA. I have tones of these numbers. They always help to understand the game and how different factors impact on the outcome.
FF, love your angles regarding road dog ML, do you have the stats of away favorite teams covering ats say over 5-6 pts, as I remember last year road favorites were doing pretty good in the first few months
FF, love your angles regarding road dog ML, do you have the stats of away favorite teams covering ats say over 5-6 pts, as I remember last year road favorites were doing pretty good in the first few months
Bol this season FF, let's make some money this season. Maybe u should use same thread for each week of your picks u do daily for a week instead of start different thread daily of your picks. That way we all could discuss in your thread of things to help each other.
Bol this season FF, let's make some money this season. Maybe u should use same thread for each week of your picks u do daily for a week instead of start different thread daily of your picks. That way we all could discuss in your thread of things to help each other.
FF, love your angles regarding road dog ML, do you have the stats of away favorite teams covering ats say over 5-6 pts, as I remember last year road favorites were doing pretty good in the first few months
Since 1995 in first 18 games of the season road favorites coming from favorite loss against team on 0 or 1 rest are 128-84-6 (60.4%) with
avg line: -4.8. One to six points favorites are 99-56-4 (63.9%) in the same situation. The trend is good but you need to know that it's very pushed to such good numbers and could go 50:50 or worse in the future.
FF, love your angles regarding road dog ML, do you have the stats of away favorite teams covering ats say over 5-6 pts, as I remember last year road favorites were doing pretty good in the first few months
Since 1995 in first 18 games of the season road favorites coming from favorite loss against team on 0 or 1 rest are 128-84-6 (60.4%) with
avg line: -4.8. One to six points favorites are 99-56-4 (63.9%) in the same situation. The trend is good but you need to know that it's very pushed to such good numbers and could go 50:50 or worse in the future.
Bol this season FF, let's make some money this season. Maybe u should use same thread for each week of your picks u do daily for a week instead of start different thread daily of your picks. That way we all could discuss in your thread of things to help each other.
I probably will stick with weekly threads but still not decide.
BOL to everybody who also post here. We could discuss everything about NBA here and everybody is welcome.
Bol this season FF, let's make some money this season. Maybe u should use same thread for each week of your picks u do daily for a week instead of start different thread daily of your picks. That way we all could discuss in your thread of things to help each other.
I probably will stick with weekly threads but still not decide.
BOL to everybody who also post here. We could discuss everything about NBA here and everybody is welcome.
I dig in my statistic database and create something interesting.
1. I checked only first 16 games of any team since 1995. 2. Since 1995 there are 4984 games that fit criteria 1. 3. I looked for road teams. As I posted above I believe betting on road teams at the start of the season have better edge than betting on home teams. 4. I decided to check only road teams that had better or same win count in the last regular season. 5. I checked only teams that are below 62 winning percentage in the current season. I believe teams with upper WP would get worse lines cause of the early season hype. 6. I checked only teams that are on 0,1 or 2 days rest. 3+ days rest teams often get bad lines cause of the rest... so I needed no rest or normal rest teams to get better results. 7. The last criteria was the opponent (home team) to be on 1 or 2 days rest. I eliminate 0 rest cause if the home opponent is on b2b we will get bad line for the road team despite the fact I believe b2b isn't big factor early in the season. 8. I get 815 games from all 4984 as a result which is exactly 16.35%. The percentage of the games is very good number and 815 games (almost 41 games per season) is enough sample size to believe that trend could work also in the future.
The results:
Road teams are 475-322-18 (59.6%) in that situation. Favorites are 189-111-5 (63.0%) with avg line of -4.1 Underdogs are 277-196-13 (58.6%) with avg line of 5.1
Will pay attention on this trend and will post the plays and results to see if I found good piece of edge for the next seasons.
I dig in my statistic database and create something interesting.
1. I checked only first 16 games of any team since 1995. 2. Since 1995 there are 4984 games that fit criteria 1. 3. I looked for road teams. As I posted above I believe betting on road teams at the start of the season have better edge than betting on home teams. 4. I decided to check only road teams that had better or same win count in the last regular season. 5. I checked only teams that are below 62 winning percentage in the current season. I believe teams with upper WP would get worse lines cause of the early season hype. 6. I checked only teams that are on 0,1 or 2 days rest. 3+ days rest teams often get bad lines cause of the rest... so I needed no rest or normal rest teams to get better results. 7. The last criteria was the opponent (home team) to be on 1 or 2 days rest. I eliminate 0 rest cause if the home opponent is on b2b we will get bad line for the road team despite the fact I believe b2b isn't big factor early in the season. 8. I get 815 games from all 4984 as a result which is exactly 16.35%. The percentage of the games is very good number and 815 games (almost 41 games per season) is enough sample size to believe that trend could work also in the future.
The results:
Road teams are 475-322-18 (59.6%) in that situation. Favorites are 189-111-5 (63.0%) with avg line of -4.1 Underdogs are 277-196-13 (58.6%) with avg line of 5.1
Will pay attention on this trend and will post the plays and results to see if I found good piece of edge for the next seasons.
2. Since 1995 there are 4783 games that fit criteria 1. 8. I get 815 games from all 4783 as a result which is exactly 17.03%.
The percentage of the games is very good number and 815 games (almost 41
games per season) is enough sample size to believe that trend could
work also in the future.
2. Since 1995 there are 4783 games that fit criteria 1. 8. I get 815 games from all 4783 as a result which is exactly 17.03%.
The percentage of the games is very good number and 815 games (almost 41
games per season) is enough sample size to believe that trend could
work also in the future.
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