2016 record: 13-5
The NBA PLAY OF THE YEAR IS:
OKC -5 over SIXERS on 10/26/16.
Folks, forget the square play/sharp play thinking for this one.
This is going to hit because Vegas flagrantly adjusted this line to compensate for earth-shaking departures and they won't be able to spot enough points anyway to Philly for the way this OKC team will come out psychologically.
The reasons for the play:
1. The line
These are unwritten rules of lines and you come to know them betting for a lifetime.
OKC is a first-rate team. The Sixers are the worst team in the NBA.
BUT OKC lost Durant and Ibaka and the Sixers are gaining Simmons, Embiid and Saric.
So if the previous sentence didn't exist (Durant and Ibaka were still on the Thunder) and the Sixers were the Sixers of last year, this game would open at about Thunder -17 at home, or maybe a bit more too. It's not too high because it's opening night and there are jitters and bad teams can surprise great ones after a rusty offseason. Also, Vegas likes to cap NBA games at -17 when it can. Too much exposure beyond that.
Now, switch the Thunder to play in Philly and that is traditionally a 6 pt swing in the line.
Now we are down to Thunder -11.
So how did we get to -5?
Well Durant is worth about -3/-4 pts in the line. He is the heart of the team (but it still has its soul in Westbrook). Ibaka is worth about 1 pt. Perhaps we can quibble over a point or two but now we have 11 - 4 - 1 = -6. If you want to say Durant is 3 we have 11 - 3 - 1 = 7.
So how do we get to -5? You add about two points for the trio of Simmons/Embiid/Saric on the other side.
That is a rough gauge but that is how we get to -5.
Now let me say this after going through that:
That line is INSANELY in favor of OKC for two reasons:
1. Saric/Embiid/Simmons have never dribbled a ball on an NBA court, need time to gel, and are facing the Thunder on opening night with all the fanfare around Simmons.
That is pressure, these kids are young and we know Embiid is a headcase too.
And you've all seen Simmons at LSU. He takes plays off. Period. He doesn't even have 50% of the grit and determination Westbrook has.
This alone should mean -2/-3 pts extra on the line to about -7/-8 that isn't there.
So we are already getting a huge discount.
But the SECOND reason is the reason that will win this bet for us.
2. OKC is a the team scorned by one of the NBA's all time great talents and they are facing one of the historically worst teams in NBA history.
OKC lost Durant to the Warriors. OKC traded Ibaka to now rebuild.
These will be the storylines that will be trumpeted on opening night.
And those storylines are the very reasons OKC will come out to blow the Sixers out of the water.
And the one guy, the leading scoring title favorite according to the bookies, will be on FULL display.
He took Durant's departure personally and now he, the soul of the team, must take OKC on his back and get them to the playoffs.
This team is projected to win 46.5 games in Vegas. That's not chopped liver. You don't think this game is one of those wins?
What better way to make that statement than on opening night against a trio of rookies and what is still considered one of the worst franchises in professional sports.
Lose this game and you lose your dignity. And we only need to lay FIVE which is two points off of a key number of 7.
Win this game, and for one night, while Durant possibly watches somewhere, you show him your team can live on without him.
Bonus reason:
3. Lebron vs. Durant's value
There is only one guy who scorned a team who can compare to KD. And he's bigger and better.
Lebron.
Let history serve as an example, albeit an ultra-small sample size.
Well how did the Cavs, who turned into nothing after LBJ left, do the FIRST game in 2010 after the Decision?
They beat an excellent Boston team (Pierce/Garnett/Allen) on opening night 95-87 as 4 point dogs.
Lebron left the Heat too. How did they do the FIRST game after he left in 2015.
They covered against the Hornets as 6.5 point favorites 104-94.
This FIRST game is the one and only game you get all the media hoopla wrapped up into all your frustrations of the offseason when your star(s) scorned you.
OKC has that right here against the awful Sixers who need time to develop and we get a tremendous line.
And remember, we lost Durant and Ibaka but Sabonis (Who is a giant from Gonzaga) and Oladipo (solid and competent) are now joining OKC.
And we still have Adams and Kanter who carry the scorn psychologically.
And Westbrook. He really is THE guy we count on here for 30ish.
This is play of the year type stuff here folks. And only the Sixers and Nets and this type of line would make me pull the trigger with this much certainty.
Wait and the line will go up. Everyone is paying attention to football right now while a play of the year in the NBA sits here for the taking. Yes your money will be tied up but you will get paid in under 2 months.