Last night I knew the books would give some back to the public, therefore once I realized Cleveland was the public team, I knew they would win and cover. Covers consensus was showing toronto as the public team which is what was throwing me off, so I made it a no play last night and missed out on an easy winner with cleveland
Tonight I feel the same way, GS is a public bet tonight (You knew they would be! Losing 3 in a row is not in the minds of too many people) I believe they give some more back again, and then of course they'll set up the public as they always do to get it back at a later time.
However I have a strong case I can make for both sides here. I have come down to the conclusion that tonight's game will go one of two ways-
Play #1- (This is probably a waste of money, as I believe GS wins and covers tonight...I am just doing this small bet as insurance in case GS does not cover I think OKC finishes them off)
OKC ML-
OKC wins the game outright, and ends the series in 5, therefore the books cash in huge with all of the Large GS ML bets on the line tonight, books stand to cash in a fortune if OKC wins tonight. The line is really what sticks out to me here. How often do we see GS as only 7 point favorites at home? In a must win game and a close out game for OKC, which will be the toughest of the series for them, this line should be closer to 9 or 10 or even higher. Especially since the games in series have been blowouts.
So let's assume GS were to win and cover tonight, why would the books not open this line at 10 or higher? It might scratch some heads but it would have been the right move, if GS was going to win. So this low number tells me a possible upset tonight. And I do love OKC to advance the series so if you simply bet them these next 3 games, you can make a profit. as well.
Play #2-
Golden State -7 (I have a feeling this line will go down to 6.5) This would be the no brainer play right here. GS must win game, at home, lost 2 in a row, lost game 1 at home, etc. Everything points to a GS rebound here. But are they healthy enough to do it?
Since I am not sure on tonight's game I won't be betting big. I just plan to do these 2 bets, to ensure profit as long as one of them win.
In NHL I like the Penguins to win, and I was on the Braves yesterday in MLB so I might parlay some plays as well. I see the streak survivor dude at the top is on Braves tonight and he has won 19 in a row. The line certainly indicates braves will win, so that is another play to think about for tonight.