I am a college football and hoops bettor, primarily, so I may be speaking out of class here. Yet, in the NBA playoffs, especially at this stage, fading the public has been the best bet and has been profitable for me.
Initially I thought the public would swarm in to back the Thunder after their impressive beatdown of the Warriors in Game 3. But now I see the public all over the Warriors, especially after we learned D. Green would get to play. And the oddsmakers haven't made significant adjustments to the line.
Oddsmakers are very good at what they do, and I cannot see them letting the sheep off the hook and giving away money tonight. They know the losers will be back to bet the next line they offer. As well, I cannot stop doing what I have been doing so, for me, the Thunder +2.0 is my bet tonight.
I am a college football and hoops bettor, primarily, so I may be speaking out of class here. Yet, in the NBA playoffs, especially at this stage, fading the public has been the best bet and has been profitable for me.
Initially I thought the public would swarm in to back the Thunder after their impressive beatdown of the Warriors in Game 3. But now I see the public all over the Warriors, especially after we learned D. Green would get to play. And the oddsmakers haven't made significant adjustments to the line.
Oddsmakers are very good at what they do, and I cannot see them letting the sheep off the hook and giving away money tonight. They know the losers will be back to bet the next line they offer. As well, I cannot stop doing what I have been doing so, for me, the Thunder +2.0 is my bet tonight.
PS. I'm only seeing the public 60/40 on GS. That doesn't mean the weight of the bets is at that amount. I would imagine if the weight of the bets was that heavy the line would be 2-3. Really looks like a pretty even split most likely as far as Vegas is concerned. Again, I'm not buying that more money is on GS or the line would be higher. Vegas reacts and lives off the 10% vig.
PS. I'm only seeing the public 60/40 on GS. That doesn't mean the weight of the bets is at that amount. I would imagine if the weight of the bets was that heavy the line would be 2-3. Really looks like a pretty even split most likely as far as Vegas is concerned. Again, I'm not buying that more money is on GS or the line would be higher. Vegas reacts and lives off the 10% vig.
Hey folks, I'm not taking a victory lap. I'm just pointing out that if you intend to be successful at sports wagering, you cannot allow your ego to get in the way of what the oddsmakers may be telling you with the line they are offering.
Forget that nonsense about the books always being happy collecting the vig. There are games where the book takes a betting interest in the game (side, total or both). Tonight's contest between the Thunder and Warriors is an excellent example.
I used to believe that the books always wanted balanced action. But I have conducted a lot of research and know this to be a fallacy. Every year MIT hosts the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. There are videos posted on YouTube where Vegas sports book operators tell you that they know their clients (public) so well, they know how to sucker them in with the lines they hang - specifically stating that they are not necessarily trying to balance the action with every line they hang. I would post a link here, but those of you who are seeking knowledge will seek the link yourselves.
This business is not easy. Perhaps the hardest part is admitting you do not know everything
Hey folks, I'm not taking a victory lap. I'm just pointing out that if you intend to be successful at sports wagering, you cannot allow your ego to get in the way of what the oddsmakers may be telling you with the line they are offering.
Forget that nonsense about the books always being happy collecting the vig. There are games where the book takes a betting interest in the game (side, total or both). Tonight's contest between the Thunder and Warriors is an excellent example.
I used to believe that the books always wanted balanced action. But I have conducted a lot of research and know this to be a fallacy. Every year MIT hosts the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. There are videos posted on YouTube where Vegas sports book operators tell you that they know their clients (public) so well, they know how to sucker them in with the lines they hang - specifically stating that they are not necessarily trying to balance the action with every line they hang. I would post a link here, but those of you who are seeking knowledge will seek the link yourselves.
This business is not easy. Perhaps the hardest part is admitting you do not know everything
Amigo, well put. I saw ya a lot in the NFL playoffs and it seems we feel the same way about sports gambling. Not everything it what it seems to be. Also, with lines, sometimes the game is over even before it sarts. Whether people want to admit it's a FIX or not, it's sure in the heck not pure like people believe sports are. It's just how it is. Good stuff amigo Sent ya a friend request brotha
Amigo, well put. I saw ya a lot in the NFL playoffs and it seems we feel the same way about sports gambling. Not everything it what it seems to be. Also, with lines, sometimes the game is over even before it sarts. Whether people want to admit it's a FIX or not, it's sure in the heck not pure like people believe sports are. It's just how it is. Good stuff amigo Sent ya a friend request brotha
Amigo, well put. I saw ya a lot in the NFL playoffs and it seems we feel the same way about sports gambling. Not everything it what it seems to be. Also, with lines, sometimes the game is over even before it sarts. Whether people want to admit it's a FIX or not, it's sure in the heck not pure like people believe sports are. It's just how it is. Good stuff amigo Sent ya a friend request brotha
I accepted your friend request, brother.
I put myself through college, getting a degree in geology and land use planning. Likewise, I also paid for my gambling education out of pocket. Getting the gambling education was more difficult than my college education. Largely because, when it comes to sports handicapping, I had to figure it ALL out on my own. There is no book that tells you how to do it. I am squarely in the black with both of my vocations.
Regarding sports handicapping and wagering, and this is one fact everyone needs to KNOW: the books are not always looking for balanced action. This one fact cost me a couple thousand dollars to learn
Amigo, well put. I saw ya a lot in the NFL playoffs and it seems we feel the same way about sports gambling. Not everything it what it seems to be. Also, with lines, sometimes the game is over even before it sarts. Whether people want to admit it's a FIX or not, it's sure in the heck not pure like people believe sports are. It's just how it is. Good stuff amigo Sent ya a friend request brotha
I accepted your friend request, brother.
I put myself through college, getting a degree in geology and land use planning. Likewise, I also paid for my gambling education out of pocket. Getting the gambling education was more difficult than my college education. Largely because, when it comes to sports handicapping, I had to figure it ALL out on my own. There is no book that tells you how to do it. I am squarely in the black with both of my vocations.
Regarding sports handicapping and wagering, and this is one fact everyone needs to KNOW: the books are not always looking for balanced action. This one fact cost me a couple thousand dollars to learn
Regarding sports handicapping and wagering, and this is one fact everyone needs to KNOW: the books are not always looking for balanced action. This one fact cost me a couple thousand dollars to learn
What's utterly amazing is that Vegas isn't even trying to hide this fact.
Regarding sports handicapping and wagering, and this is one fact everyone needs to KNOW: the books are not always looking for balanced action. This one fact cost me a couple thousand dollars to learn
What's utterly amazing is that Vegas isn't even trying to hide this fact.
I'm just pointing out that if you intend to be successful at sports wagering, you cannot allow your ego to get in the way of what the oddsmakers may be telling you with the line they are offering.
Great point made sir!
Hopefully 'Joe Lunch Box' can spot their own demise coming before it happens every weekend...
I'm just pointing out that if you intend to be successful at sports wagering, you cannot allow your ego to get in the way of what the oddsmakers may be telling you with the line they are offering.
Great point made sir!
Hopefully 'Joe Lunch Box' can spot their own demise coming before it happens every weekend...
What's utterly amazing is that Vegas isn't even trying to hide this fact.
Go back up to Post #4, above. The conventional wisdom has been, and continues to be, that the Books only interest is collecting the vig. We know that to not always be true. I've been doing this a long time, and I lost money UNTIL I figured this out
What's utterly amazing is that Vegas isn't even trying to hide this fact.
Go back up to Post #4, above. The conventional wisdom has been, and continues to be, that the Books only interest is collecting the vig. We know that to not always be true. I've been doing this a long time, and I lost money UNTIL I figured this out
Go back up to Post #4, above. The conventional wisdom has been, and continues to be, that the Books only interest is collecting the vig. We know that to not always be true. I've been doing this a long time, and I lost money UNTIL I figured this out
Here's my caveat: I don't think Vegas picks a side on EVERY game. It's just impossible. For most games they probably want 50/50 action. But I'm sure there's scenarios where they think the betting public has a huge misperception to reality.
But the key thing is, it's not every game. I'd say most games they're probably happy w/ 50/50 action.
Go back up to Post #4, above. The conventional wisdom has been, and continues to be, that the Books only interest is collecting the vig. We know that to not always be true. I've been doing this a long time, and I lost money UNTIL I figured this out
Here's my caveat: I don't think Vegas picks a side on EVERY game. It's just impossible. For most games they probably want 50/50 action. But I'm sure there's scenarios where they think the betting public has a huge misperception to reality.
But the key thing is, it's not every game. I'd say most games they're probably happy w/ 50/50 action.
Here's my caveat: I don't think Vegas picks a side on EVERY game. It's just impossible. For most games they probably want 50/50 action. But I'm sure there's scenarios where they think the betting public has a huge misperception to reality.
But the key thing is, it's not every game. I'd say most games they're probably happy w/ 50/50 action.
It happens way more then you think which is typically why books clean up on games where there is major 1 sided action yet the lines makers keep the line steady no movement.
Here's my caveat: I don't think Vegas picks a side on EVERY game. It's just impossible. For most games they probably want 50/50 action. But I'm sure there's scenarios where they think the betting public has a huge misperception to reality.
But the key thing is, it's not every game. I'd say most games they're probably happy w/ 50/50 action.
It happens way more then you think which is typically why books clean up on games where there is major 1 sided action yet the lines makers keep the line steady no movement.
Here's my caveat: I don't think Vegas picks a side on EVERY game. It's just impossible. For most games they probably want 50/50 action. But I'm sure there's scenarios where they think the betting public has a huge misperception to reality.
But the key thing is, it's not every game. I'd say most games they're probably happy w/ 50/50 action.
I hear you and agree. Here's the difference - Last night there was exactly one NBA game for the NBA crowd to bet. During the regular season of any sport season there are often dozens of games to bet (especially in college). So, indeed, whether or not all the lines are balanced during the regular season is immaterial and realistically likely impossible. The Books will still win half, which produces the vig, at a minimum
BUT with exactly one game on the schedule, all the money that would have been spread around the entire league was focused on exactly one game / two sides. Of course the Books will take a betting interest because the Books get to keep all the money they win. "Bet with the Book" is a good philosophy to have in these situations.
I have no action on tonight's game, at this time. I need some more information. If I take a side it will be 15 or 20 minutes prior to tip, and it would most likely be the dog.
Another important aspect of winning at this is that you do not have to bet every line. Only bet lines that offer value
Here's my caveat: I don't think Vegas picks a side on EVERY game. It's just impossible. For most games they probably want 50/50 action. But I'm sure there's scenarios where they think the betting public has a huge misperception to reality.
But the key thing is, it's not every game. I'd say most games they're probably happy w/ 50/50 action.
I hear you and agree. Here's the difference - Last night there was exactly one NBA game for the NBA crowd to bet. During the regular season of any sport season there are often dozens of games to bet (especially in college). So, indeed, whether or not all the lines are balanced during the regular season is immaterial and realistically likely impossible. The Books will still win half, which produces the vig, at a minimum
BUT with exactly one game on the schedule, all the money that would have been spread around the entire league was focused on exactly one game / two sides. Of course the Books will take a betting interest because the Books get to keep all the money they win. "Bet with the Book" is a good philosophy to have in these situations.
I have no action on tonight's game, at this time. I need some more information. If I take a side it will be 15 or 20 minutes prior to tip, and it would most likely be the dog.
Another important aspect of winning at this is that you do not have to bet every line. Only bet lines that offer value
I agree with you wholeheartedly, that the books often take a side, especially when there is one game or when the playoffs are taking place.
I'd put the books percentage of winning at around 55-57%. When there are public records of how Vegas sportsbooks have done, they always show a 4-5% profit on total monies wagered, so after paying everyone it deduces to about an 8-10% gross profit and then subtraction of expenses.
I look at cover public consensus as a guide to the public because there is no reason for them to fabricate anything....does it calculate total amount of money wagered? No.
A few years ago, a betfair, who uses a matching system of betting (where one better makes an offer and another taking the other team matches for reduced juice and reduced risk to the book) made a survey of their bettors in their database. They had 80,000 bettors in their system and counted 3,000 consistent winners for a percentage of 3.75%. And, you could argue that a sportsbook with reduced juice will attract a higher level of intelligence among the ocean of sports bettors and the overall average of winning sports bettors is lower than 3.75%.
If one can think like a sportsbook, that is an edge in itself.
I'm surprised you're thinking of taking the Raptors after their two impressive wins at home. The line to me looks like the books are trying to attract Raptors money.
I agree with you wholeheartedly, that the books often take a side, especially when there is one game or when the playoffs are taking place.
I'd put the books percentage of winning at around 55-57%. When there are public records of how Vegas sportsbooks have done, they always show a 4-5% profit on total monies wagered, so after paying everyone it deduces to about an 8-10% gross profit and then subtraction of expenses.
I look at cover public consensus as a guide to the public because there is no reason for them to fabricate anything....does it calculate total amount of money wagered? No.
A few years ago, a betfair, who uses a matching system of betting (where one better makes an offer and another taking the other team matches for reduced juice and reduced risk to the book) made a survey of their bettors in their database. They had 80,000 bettors in their system and counted 3,000 consistent winners for a percentage of 3.75%. And, you could argue that a sportsbook with reduced juice will attract a higher level of intelligence among the ocean of sports bettors and the overall average of winning sports bettors is lower than 3.75%.
If one can think like a sportsbook, that is an edge in itself.
I'm surprised you're thinking of taking the Raptors after their two impressive wins at home. The line to me looks like the books are trying to attract Raptors money.
I'm surprised you're thinking of taking the Raptors after their two impressive wins at home. The line to me looks like the books are trying to attract Raptors money.
Or....
It's the ole... you know, that I know, that you know, that I know, reverse psychology angle.
I'm surprised you're thinking of taking the Raptors after their two impressive wins at home. The line to me looks like the books are trying to attract Raptors money.
Or....
It's the ole... you know, that I know, that you know, that I know, reverse psychology angle.
I'm surprised you're thinking of taking the Raptors after their two impressive wins at home. The line to me looks like the books are trying to attract Raptors money.
I think the books can take somewhat of a night off after cleaning up last night ... Tonight I think if anything they will be out to get the "sharp" money
Most public bettors who had GS last night are gun shy and won't bet much if at all ... All the so called experts are seeing the huge line coupled with the raps winning the last two and all they see is a repeat of game 1 & 2 ... Me I'm not so sure
I could see this being like a 105-102 cavs type game but well see
I'm surprised you're thinking of taking the Raptors after their two impressive wins at home. The line to me looks like the books are trying to attract Raptors money.
I think the books can take somewhat of a night off after cleaning up last night ... Tonight I think if anything they will be out to get the "sharp" money
Most public bettors who had GS last night are gun shy and won't bet much if at all ... All the so called experts are seeing the huge line coupled with the raps winning the last two and all they see is a repeat of game 1 & 2 ... Me I'm not so sure
I could see this being like a 105-102 cavs type game but well see
I agree with you wholeheartedly, that the books often take a side, especially when there is one game or when the playoffs are taking place.
I'd put the books percentage of winning at around 55-57%. When there are public records of how Vegas sportsbooks have done, they always show a 4-5% profit on total monies wagered, so after paying everyone it deduces to about an 8-10% gross profit and then subtraction of expenses.
I look at cover public consensus as a guide to the public because there is no reason for them to fabricate anything....does it calculate total amount of money wagered? No.
A few years ago, a betfair, who uses a matching system of betting (where one better makes an offer and another taking the other team matches for reduced juice and reduced risk to the book) made a survey of their bettors in their database. They had 80,000 bettors in their system and counted 3,000 consistent winners for a percentage of 3.75%. And, you could argue that a sportsbook with reduced juice will attract a higher level of intelligence among the ocean of sports bettors and the overall average of winning sports bettors is lower than 3.75%.
If one can think like a sportsbook, that is an edge in itself.
I'm surprised you're thinking of taking the Raptors after their two impressive wins at home. The line to me looks like the books are trying to attract Raptors money.
Highly insightful, Indigo. Especially the information about Betfair. I think we will likely see more of that kind of arbitrage. Kind of like the rake at the poker tables.
As for leaning Raptors tonight, it really is just a lean. However, I am not seeing the kind of betting action that I look for to lock in a play on the dog. Perhaps it gets fired up closer to tip off. Perhaps not. This will very likely be a side I just leave alone. The Under 197 is starting to offer value, with nearly 2/3 on the Over. I will sit tight and see what happens
I agree with you wholeheartedly, that the books often take a side, especially when there is one game or when the playoffs are taking place.
I'd put the books percentage of winning at around 55-57%. When there are public records of how Vegas sportsbooks have done, they always show a 4-5% profit on total monies wagered, so after paying everyone it deduces to about an 8-10% gross profit and then subtraction of expenses.
I look at cover public consensus as a guide to the public because there is no reason for them to fabricate anything....does it calculate total amount of money wagered? No.
A few years ago, a betfair, who uses a matching system of betting (where one better makes an offer and another taking the other team matches for reduced juice and reduced risk to the book) made a survey of their bettors in their database. They had 80,000 bettors in their system and counted 3,000 consistent winners for a percentage of 3.75%. And, you could argue that a sportsbook with reduced juice will attract a higher level of intelligence among the ocean of sports bettors and the overall average of winning sports bettors is lower than 3.75%.
If one can think like a sportsbook, that is an edge in itself.
I'm surprised you're thinking of taking the Raptors after their two impressive wins at home. The line to me looks like the books are trying to attract Raptors money.
Highly insightful, Indigo. Especially the information about Betfair. I think we will likely see more of that kind of arbitrage. Kind of like the rake at the poker tables.
As for leaning Raptors tonight, it really is just a lean. However, I am not seeing the kind of betting action that I look for to lock in a play on the dog. Perhaps it gets fired up closer to tip off. Perhaps not. This will very likely be a side I just leave alone. The Under 197 is starting to offer value, with nearly 2/3 on the Over. I will sit tight and see what happens
I think the books can take somewhat of a night off after cleaning up last night ... Tonight I think if anything they will be out to get the "sharp" money
Most public bettors who had GS last night are gun shy and won't bet much if at all ... All the so called experts are seeing the huge line coupled with the raps winning the last two and all they see is a repeat of game 1 & 2 ... Me I'm not so sure
I could see this being like a 105-102 cavs type game but well see
I was thinking more like 97-94 cavs, but I like where your mind is at.
I think the books can take somewhat of a night off after cleaning up last night ... Tonight I think if anything they will be out to get the "sharp" money
Most public bettors who had GS last night are gun shy and won't bet much if at all ... All the so called experts are seeing the huge line coupled with the raps winning the last two and all they see is a repeat of game 1 & 2 ... Me I'm not so sure
I could see this being like a 105-102 cavs type game but well see
I was thinking more like 97-94 cavs, but I like where your mind is at.
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